Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Tuesday Morning (Aug 31) Update

Certainly more heat expected across the region... H850 temps and mixing schemes suggest mid/upper 90s possible through Thursday with NO rain expected. However, by Thursday night into Friday morning, rain chances will go up as a cold front sweeps the region. This front will also usher in much cooler air for the long holiday weekend.
Quick look at the U of L / UK game... Beautiful weather !!!!!!! Lots of sun,very low humidities and temperatures in the 70s (to near 80 at best) for highs. Enjoy !!!!!

Here's the latest from the hurricane center on "Earl".

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24ANWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010700 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THEVIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AS POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL MOVES AWAY FROMTHESE ISLANDS...SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...20.7N 67.2WABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICOABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLANDMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HRPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HRMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTORICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLAND.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDSA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMASINTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITORTHE PROGRESS OF EARL.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGINISLANDS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TOYOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTSISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVINGTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE NORTHWESTWARDMOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECASTTRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM PUERTO AND THEVIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND CROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST OFTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITHHIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTHARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THEBRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. STRONGERWINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN INPUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOSPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON.STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISHIN PUERTO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLEIN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGINISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALAMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EARL. THESERAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

Jay