Big time flooding (or flooding yet to come) on many of the rivers south of Louisville. For a complete breakdown check out this link:
Great weather returns today through tomorrow. H85 temps and mixing schemess suggest upper 70s today with low/mid 80s tomorrow. Next storm chance comes tomorrow night (Wednesday night). Decent H5 short will be moving across the upper midwest and Great Lakes region later tomorrow. The associated cold front will slip southeast throught the Ohio Valley tomorrow night. A band of pre-frontal broken storm will likely initiate to our north over Ohio and Indiana late in the afternoon - some of these storms will likely be severe as moderate instability with overlay decent shear. As the front sags south and through our region tomorrow night, a few storms will likely accompany the boundary although they should be in a weakening mode as the low levels cool and the storms move farther away from the best shear.
Nice weather builds back in for Thursday as the afore mentioned front will be south of us and H5 ridging takes hold.
Things get interesting Thursday night and Friday! Thursday night a strong low level jet will set up just to our west as the front to our south turns around and starts pushing back north as a warm front. This will all take place in response to a strong H5 shortwave that will be moving east across the northern Rockies and northern Plains states. A large nocturnal MCS should develop just to our north, northwest (northern MO, southern IA, northern IL, northern IN) in reponse to the strengthening LLJ and strong WAA setting up across the upper midwest and Great Lakes region.
By Friday morning, sfc warm front is well north. Strong southwest winds will make for a vey warm day across our region allowing sfc temps to climb into the mid/upper 80s.
By later Friday, the cold frontal boundary will begin pushing through the area. A band of showers and storms is expected with this strong front. Decent instability and shear will be in place for these storms to work with so some severe seems likely. Due to the strength/sharpness of this cold front and the linear forcing involved, it looks to me that there will be the potential for a well developed squall line to sweep our area later Friday into Friday evening with bowing segments a good possibilty with the shear and instability in place.
Much cooler but quiet weather returns for the Mother's day weekend.
Jay
No comments:
Post a Comment