Hello all.. well, new week and it looks like a somewhat unsettled week on the way. This week will highlighted by increasing moisture, warmth, and a frontal boundary that will move back-and-forth across the region. Simply put this means occasional shower and storm chances.
The first rain cahnce comes tonight... warm front advancing from the south as a potent H5 shortwave moves east,northeast across the plains and upper midwest today and tonight. BTW, this feature will kick off some severe weather well west of us with some of those storms possible producing some violebt tornadoes... here's SPCs day1.
As the warm front moves through tonight, scattered showers and storm are likely with the best coverage occurring to the north of the Ohio river.
This activity likely clears the region by Tuesday morning.... Much of Tuesday looks dry and warm to me as rapid drying associated with the subsidence behind the afore mentioned H5 wave and shortwave ridging build into the region.
Front sags back south to near the Ohio River Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Showers and storms will once again likely fire as frontal system will be in the region to provide the focus and as a weak H5 short travels through. Here's the thing though... I would think this Tuesday night/Wednesday morning convection would be scattered (perhaps widely scattered - in other words, not everybody will get wet) simply because the best H85 LLJ and WAA is well west associated with the next big western trough and we have overall building heights across the Ohio Valley as eastern ridging really starts to take hold.
By Thursday, the front pushes back north as next big H5 trough and its associated sfc wave moves from the Rockies to the upper midwest. As a result, I don't see much of an organized chance for rain on Thursday (isolated perhaps if the Tconv. can be breached).
Thursday night late into Friday frontal pushes back south into the region behind low pressure traveling through the Great Lakes - should be another rain chances at this time but again, basically just scattered activity as there is overall weakening occurring with this system when it pushes through our area and fropa passage timing is not the best - morningish.
So bottomline... several rain chances this week but nothing looks real-real organized over our area.
1st chance: tonight.
2nd chance: late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
3rd chance: Thursday night into Friday morning
otherwise lots of dry hours with pleasantly warm temperatures.
We'll keep you updated.
Jay
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