Monday Update....

Quite the Derby weekend across the area! Weather wise... one that'll go in the record books for many folks - mainly south of Louisville. Hardest hit areas: Tennessee as well as south central Kentucky.

Check out the 2-day rainfall map (courtesy NWS) ...




So looking forward, a chance to dry out... well for some anyway. It does appear scattered thunderstorms will fire north of us later this afternoon as H5 energy moves east across the upper midwest. A sfc trough / windshift boundary will provide the focus for these storms later this afternoon north of our region.



Substantial shear intersecting moderate instability will mean a few of these storms could go severe - with main threat being damaging downburst winds and hail - although looking at 0 to 1k helicity, an isolated tornado or two could also occur if LCLs can manage to be low enough.



As mentioned earlier, storm initiation will run from central/northern Indiana west-southwest across Illinois into Missouri. These storms will move east/sourtheast and likely affect northern portions of our area (i.e. north of the Ohio river) late today / early evening. Most of the convection will stay north of Louisville - although a shower or weakening storm could skirt the metro early tonight. The storms should quickly diminish in intensity after sunset.




The good news about this... it looks these scattered storms will stay north of the areas that received the heaviest rainfall this past weekend.

Dry and warm weather returns tomorrow and lasts through Friday afternoon at which time the next front affects us with another storm chance followed by a dry but cooler Mother's day weekend.

Jay