Thursday Update...

Still some great weather the next 2 days (today and tomorrow). Winds increasing from the south and becoming gusty but as we've said all week - it looks dry and warm. If you've read the posts from the last several days you know our thinking on this weekend's rain situation. If anything, the rain may actually hold off until midday or afternoon Saturday. The showers and storms still look somewhat scattered to me though for Saturday as the best convergence area (i.e. the sfc front) and dynamical forcing stay just to our northwest. I don't think we'll see 2 to 5 inches of rain here on Saturday for the Derby.

Now Saturday night into Sunday the entire pattern shifts a bit farther east. In addition, a decent H5 shortwave and associated sfc wave will push towards the Ohio Valley. This is the period that looks the most active to me. This is the period when rain and storms become widespread with heeavy rainfall possible and looking at the progged wind fields - perhaps even some severe weather.

Bottomline... Dry, breezy, and warm for this afternoon and Oaks day.
Scattered showers and storms on Derby day.
Rain and storms likely Saturday night into Sunday with a potential
for heavy rain totals and possibly some severe weather.

Some Derby day weather facts for you...

Coldest Minimum Temperature: 36 degrees May 4, 1940 and May 4, 1957
Coldest Maximum Temperature: 47 degrees May 4, 1935 and May 4, 1957* (record for the date)
Coldest Average Daily Temperature: 42 degrees May 4, 1957
Warmest Maximum Temperature: 94 degrees May 2, 1959
Warmest Average Daily Temperature: 79 degrees May 14, 1886
Warmest Minimum Temperature: 72 degrees May 14, 1886
Wettest: 2.31" of rain May 11, 1918

Jay

Wednesday Update...

Well like yesterday we still think that Oaks day will be dry with any rain chances holding off until later that night (late Friday night) and into Saturday. I know all the other media outlets have rain chances for Oaks day to some extent and at some point but we still think the daylight hours and all the races on Friday at the track will be dry. Check out yesterday's entry for the explainer as it appears very little has changed as to why we are forecasting the way we are.

If there is any change at all it would be to up the already in place POP chances for Derby day some. If you look at our 7day fcst we are thinking later Friday night into Saturday morning we'll see one wave of showers and storms. Then later in the afternoon, another batch of showers and storms. Both these batches should be relatively scattered, however, as the best overall forcing remains west of us along the front.

Bottom line: we like dry, windy, and warm for the Kentucky Oaks... warm but also with scattered showers and storms for Derby day.

Steamboat Race: Beautiful, mid/upper 60s partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Pegasus Parade: Beautiful, turning breezy. Partly cloudy with temps in the mid/upper 70s.

we'll keep you posted on any and all changes in the weather.

Enjoy the festival all
Jay

Tuesday Update

The latest and last upper vort in the series is working through this morning with the rain. This latest batch of rain will diminish midday / early afternoon with clearing taking place later this afternoon.

Chilly weather returns tonight. Light winds and dropping temperatures will likely create some fog in spots - especially valley areas. Temperatures will get chilly overnight and drop to near 40 at the airport (SDF) but well into the 30s elsewhere. Even some patchy frost will be possible in the lower - sheltered spots.



Ridging builds into the area for the next couple of days as the major action shifts west. A big storm / trough will dominate the western U.S. the rest of this week. This will in turn cause ridging across the east. Sunshine and warming temperatures can be expected across the Ohio Valley through Thursday. By Friday, the ridge axis shifts east of us so there will bee a gradual increase in cloudiness and with the sfc ridge also east, a stronger southerly flow will setup across the Ohio Valley likely pushing temperatures back towards the 80s for Oaks and perhaps Deerby day as well. As for rain chances (after today)... we are going to keep Wednesday through Oaks day dry at this time. From what I've seen - we're the only ones with no rain chances for the Oaks at this time. Our thinking is this... even though shortwave energy will eject northeast out of the western trough later Thursday into Friday (Oaks day), we believe that energy will stay far enough west to not bring us any rainfall due to additional strong jet energy digging on the backside of the western trough - keeping the overall upper pattern in place. By Derby day - even though the front will still be well west - we believe there will be enough moisture in place by then to bring us a threat for some scattered showers and storms - especially during the heat of the afternoon hours. The better rain chances arrive for Sunday and Monday as the entire western system pushes east towards our area.



We'll keep you updated,
Jay

Monday Morning update

Still cloudy, cool, and damp weather on the way through tomorrow. Beautiful weather returns for "boatrace" day and "parade" day...

Extra info on the MS deadly tornado of this passt Saturday... courtesy Jackson Weather Examiner Johnny Kelly.

A very large and long lived tornado that killed 10 people on Saturday along a path length of nearly 200 miles, will likely go down as one of the top 10 deadliest since 1950 and one of the top 5 longest tracked tornadoes on record in Mississippi.
The National Weather Service (NWS) survey teams will be out about today and over the next few days examining the tornado damage to determine the strength and intensity and the extensive track of a tornado that is estimated by the public and stormchasers to have reached an massive width of over 1 mile (1.25 miles) with an estimated continuous track on the ground of 188 to 200 miles from parts of West Central Mississippi northeast into Northern Mississippi.
This tornado is believed to be the same one that initially touched down in Northeast Louisiana, destroying many homes and damaging a chemical plant in Madison Parish, Louisiana just after 1115 am CDT Saturday, before crossing the Mississippi River and striking parts of Warren and Issaquena Counties just after 1130 am CDT Saturday.
At least 8 counties were affected by this long lived tornado with over 20 tornado reports from this storm alone as it tracked northeast across the state.
Nearly 600 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed along its path.
Storm reports (IEM)

Depending on whether the NWS determines the tornado was a single large and deadly tornado or a series of multiple tornado touchdowns, this tornado could become history in Mississippi.
According to the Jackson NWS, single tornado deaths of 9 or more, places that tornado in the top ten deadliest tornadoes since 1950 in Mississippi. At least 10 have been confirmed dead in 3 counties, including 2 children (4-Yazoo, 1-Holmes, 5-Choctaw)
With an estimated continuous track of 188 to 200 miles, based on tornado reports and damage only, this tornado could go down as the 2nd longest tracked tornado in Mississippi history!
The longest tracked Mississippi tornado on record occurred on March 3, 1966, when a F-5 tornado tore a path of destruction across the Jackson Metro areas of Hinds and Rankin Counties, remaining on the ground for up to 203 miles across 5 other counties before crossing over into Alabama. Fifty-seven people were killed during this tornado, which is the 2nd deadliest Mississippi tornado since 1950.

Saturday midday update

Severe threat still alive and well...






DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL...AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN LA INTO WESTERN GA...AND NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TN/KY...INTO SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHERN IL...AND SOUTHEAST IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS...TN....AND OH VALLEYS... ...WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS TX AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MULTIPLE WAVES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND LEAD TO A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO. ...LA/MS/AL/TN... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION ARE LEADING TO DISCRETE CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS SHOWING MID LEVEL ROTATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO AL AND TN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF HEATING WILL LIKELY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND POTENTIALLY INTO MIDDLE TN. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OF THIS EVENT...WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS... ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER PARTS OF MO/IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KNOT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSES INTO THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE PARTS OF MO/IL/IND/KY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IN THIS AREA INVOLVES THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH AND WHETHER IT WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE DAY.

Saturday AM update

Large SVR outbreak likely for the TN Valley and deep south. As upper and sfc system track in our direction later today / evening, thunderstorms will increase and with increasing shear fields (wind energy shear - speed and direction) chances for svr go up for us as well.

Off to the balloon race - not a good chance for this event though..

Here's the latest from SPC...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN AR...NERN LA...MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS E TX TO CENTRAL/NRN LA...AL...WRN GA...TN...SRN/CENTRAL KY...EXTREME SERN MO...CENTRAL/SRN/ERN AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING MDT RISK...FROM GULF COAST OF SE TX TO FL PANHANDLE...TO PORTIONS WV/OH...TO PORTIONS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...TO E TX.... OUTBREAK OF NUMEROUS SVR TSTMS IS EXPECTED TODAY...GREATEST CONCENTRATION/INTENSITY OF WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE STG-VIOLENT TORNADO THREAT AFFECTING MID-SOUTH...MS DELTA REGION...AND TN VALLEY. ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN MID-UPPER LEVELS FEATURES CYCLONE INITIALLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS KS TO WRN MO BY 25/00Z AND WEAKEN ALONG WITH ITS SFC MANIFESTATION. MEANWHILE...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SPEED MAX ALOFT -- WHICH COMPRISED MOST OF INITIAL UPPER CYCLONE OVER SWRN CONUS DURING PREVIOUS FEW DAYS -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD FROM CENTRAL TX TO ERN MO/SRN IL AREA BY 25/00Z...TAKING OVER AGAIN AS PRIMARY 500 MB LOW. BY THAT TIME...CORRESPONDING SFC CYCLONE WILL FORM ALONG OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT E OF ORIGINAL...AND CLOSE TO NEWER MID-UPPER CYCLONE CENTER. THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN REINFORCEMENT/ACCELERATION OF INITIALLY STALLED FRONTAL SEGMENT NOW OVER SWRN/CENTRAL TX NNEWD OVER ERN OK. FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF LA...WRN MS AND WRN PORTIONS TN/KY BY 25/00Z...TO FL PANHANDLE...AL...MIDDLE-ERN TN AND ERN KY BY END OF PERIOD....WHEN MID-UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...AND SRN LM AREA. ...LOWER MS VALLEY...MID-SOUTH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS... TSTMS SHOULD BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AROUND BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER E TX...LA AND ARKLATEX REGION. FOREGOING AIR MASS -- ALREADY MOISTENED/DESTABILIZED FAVORABLY BY PRIOR/OVERNIGHT THETAE ADVECTION...WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE AMIDST SFC DIABATIC HEATING. AMOUNT OF HEATING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD/ANVIL DEBRIS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM IN MID-UPPER LEVELS FROM EARLY CONVECTION...PERHAPS INCLUDING TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF ACTIVITY NOW OVER S TX. STILL...AWAY FROM EXISTING CONVECTION...EVERY REASONABLE SCENARIO INDICATES THAT MLCINH GENERALLY WILL WEAKEN WITH NWD EXTENT FROM GULF COAST...SUPPORTING EARLY AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...AND SUSTAINED THREAT SHIFTING EWD AND NEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTENSE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SPREAD ACROSS BROAD WARM/MOIST SECTOR TODAY...MUCH OF WHICH ALREADY IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF LA...MS AND COASTAL AL. THIS AIR MASS WILL SPREAD INLAND TOWARD TN VALLEY AS CONVECTION/PRECIP NOW OVER TN/AL/GA SHIFTS NEWD. SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE 70S INVOF GULF COAST...TRANSITIONING TO UPPER 60S AS FAR N AS TN AND LOW-MID 60S TO OH VALLEY. WEAKENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND BUOYANCY WITH NWD EXTENT...FROM TN VALLEY TO OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...RENDER PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONDITIONAL NATURE TO SVR THREAT...THOUGH KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE OVER VERY LARGE AREA S OF GREAT LAKES BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE EPISODES AND STORM MODES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS SITUATION...AGGREGATE OF WHICH SHOULD YIELD DENSE CONCENTRATION OF SVR EVENTS BY END OF PERIOD ACROSS MDT/HIGH CATEGORICAL RISK AREAS. THOUGH DISCRETE/CYCLIC TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE MOST POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH RISK AREA...CLUSTERED AND QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND RELATED FAST STORM MOTIONS PORTEND LONG TRACKS FOR SUPERCELLS AND FOR SOME OF THEIR TORNADOES...AS WELL AS FOR SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND WITH ANY BOW/LEWP FEATURES. THIS SUPPORTS RATHER ROBUST PROBABILITIES FOR ALL SEVERE MODES. PARAMETER SPACES IN FCST SOUNDINGS OVER HIGH RISK AREA -- SHIFTING NEWD FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON -- INCLUDE 50-60 KT LLJ SUPPORTING VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 AND 0-1 KM SRH 300-600 J/KG. ALSO EXPECT 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES BENEATH 110-140 KT 250 MB JET MAX AND 60-90 KT 500 MB WINDS...POTENTIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG. SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT MAY CARRY INTO EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS REGION AND WRN GA BEFORE DIMINISHING. ...IA...MO VALLEY REGION... SCATTERED STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA INVOF LARGE CYCLONE ALOFT...AS STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES COLLOCATED WITH BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC/DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SVR HAIL...THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS EXISTS. SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET.

Jay

Friday morning update...

Quick update this morning gang...

Well we've been hinting at a possible severe weather outbreak for our region for Saturday afternoon and evening for the last 2 to 3 days now and it appears just about everybody else is now jumping on the bandwagon...

Here's the latest Day2 from SPC... I agree with what they are discussing here..

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2010 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SWRN AND S-CNTRL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...ERN AR...NWRN LA...MUCH OF MS...WRN AND NRN AL AND FAR NWRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... A DYNAMIC LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD FEATURING A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY BEFORE RE-DEVELOPING INTO IL/IND BY SUNDAY MORNING. OF POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT 80+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WHICH ARE FORECAST TO ROUND THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BASE OVER TX PRIOR TO ACCELERATING NEWD --AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WAVE-- THROUGH THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY EWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY PRIOR TO WEAKENING OVER IA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS...EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY CYCLOGENETIC LOW WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY NEWD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX TO NEAR PAH BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO NRN IND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD OR PACIFIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. --TORNADO OUTBREAK POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO CNTRL GULF STATES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT-- ...THE LOWER OH/LOWER MS VALLEYS EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE ERN GULF STATES... THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD...MOIST WARM SECTOR /I.E. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 F NEAR THE OH RIVER...TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES/ WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT...AND WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT OWING TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. CLUSTERS OF SEVERE TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT OVER ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF A 60-90 KT MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD AND A DEVELOPING 50-60 KT LLJ WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR CYCLIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SECONDARY LOW TRACK SEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR /I.E. LARGELY DELINEATED BY MDT RISK AREA/. HERE...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS YIELDING EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 200-300+ M2/S2...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 50-70 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE OH RIVER AND AS FAR E AS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ERN GULF STATES. ...MID/LOWER MO VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... A SECONDARY CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND INVOF THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SLOWLY SHIFTING ENEWD. HERE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 C AT 500 MB/ WILL YIELD POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE INNER ENVELOPE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. AS SUCH...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE AMBIENT...VERTICAL VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..MEAD.. 04/23/2010

Another update later today after the 12z data gets in...

Stay tuned,

Jay

Thursday morning update...

Rain chances really going sky-high this weekend as first major system in a long time pushes into the Ohio Valley from the west....

Several batches of rain and thunderstorms appear likely the next several days - especially Friday through Sunday. Of course, this means that many of the KDF events could be in trouble - weather wise that is.

First decent batch of rain and a few embedded storms moves in Friday morning as a warm front - currently to our south, strengthens and pushes towards the Ohio River. The best chance for rain will come morning into midday on Friday with the warm front with showers and a few storms becoming much more scattered to isolated for the afternoon and evening.

The warm front is expected to push north of the Ohio River Friday evening bringing us a relative lull in the overall rain activity overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Yes, a few showers will still be possible during this time period - but overall this appears to be the "time window" with the best chances for some dry weather. So, fingers crossed, there's still a chance we may get the balloon glow (Friday evening), balloon race and mini (Saturday morning) off okay. Whewww - I'll tell you what though - it's gonna be close. If it's me... bring the rain gear just in case.

Rain and storms are expected to explode across our area later Saturday afternoon and evening as a very strong upper shortwave rotates into the region from the southwest. Looking at the latest progged wind fields and instability... it's certainly possible this activity could be severe. SPC has jumped on board with their day 3 outlook.

Bottom line, occasional bouts of rain and storms expected the next 3 days or so. The good news... it's very dry out there and we really need some rain - looks like we're gonna get it too.

Have a great day all,

Jay

Tuesday Update

Overall a quiet weather pattern can be expected through Thursday across the region. Our weather will be dominated by a northwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere during this time period. Weak shorts will be moving through this flow from timie to time but little more than passing mid/high clouds are expected with these weak systems.

The pattern gets more interesting by days 4 & 5 (Friday & Saturday) as a large and powerful western system begins tracking eastward across the U.S.

The attending sfc system will intensify across the plains on Friday. As a result, a strengthening southerly flow will develop across the Mississippi Valley as well as the western Ohio Valley as a broad WAA pattern sets up. The warm front will begin moving northward through the Ohio & Tennessee Valleys providing the focus for some convection. The one negative for widespread thunderstorm activity is aloft there will be a shortwave ridge moving through. As a result, only isolated storms will be possible over our region on Friday with storms being much more widespread along the warm frontal zone west of us and west of the upper ridge axis.

Saturday, everything shifts eastward. Chances for a couple of different waves of stormy weather will be possible and as the upper winds / shear values strengthen over the region, the chances for strong/severe storm will also go up. Exact placement and timing of these wavess of storms is still a bit up in the air as the system is still several days away. It looks to me that some of the KDF events this weekend could be in trouble - especially the balloon events. Even if the rain stays away for the balloon events, it looks like the strengthening southerly winds may cause havoc.

We'll keep you posted

Jay

Friday Update

Another warm one on tap for today as temperatures climb into the lower 80s. This will be the last 80 degree day though for about the next 6 days or so. A fairly strong front is pushing towards the area and will arrive this evening. As the front pushes through, a few showers and storms will accompany the boundary but that's just about it. As a matter of fact it looks as if this activity will be scattered and not everybody getting rain. NOT good news considering we are nearing a half foot of rain BELOW average for this time of year wnd rain chances the next week or so (after this evening) are virtually zero.

As for tonight, SPC has our northeastern areas in a slight risk. Here's their latest risk area.

Looks to me that the stronger wind shear will be quite a ways to our northeast, also instability is not the best so although some thunderstorm activity will develop over central and southern IN, by the time the convection approaches the Ohio river this evening - it looks like it will be scattered and in a rapid weakening mode.

Let's talk "Thunder"... like we've talked all week - tomorrow looks DRY all day. Keep in mind it will be much cooler for tomorrow. Even with lots of sunshine, temperatures will only manage to climb into the lower 60s and a stiff northerly breeze will make it feel even cooler than that. Clear skies expected for the fireworks and cool temperatures. The firework smoke will be head south over the KY side of the Ohio river.

Thunder Details:

Airshow: 3pm - Sunny, breezy (N,NW 10-15 mph) Temps: 60 to 63.

Fireworks: 9:30pm - Clear, chilly... Temps: Low 50s, Wind: N,NW 5-10 mph

Have a great "Thunder" all,

Jay

Thursday update...

Forecast looks on target all... still looks like a dry "thunder over Louisville" day and evening across the area. As a matter of fact take the sunscreen with you as bright sunshine is expected for Saturday. The difference ??? it will be cooler for Saturday as north winds behind a cold front that will pass through here Friday evening, will usher in the cooler weather.

It looks like much of the day on Friday will be warm and dry again as we climb close to 80 degrees by mid afternoon. As the front approaches, chances for scattered showers and storms will increase from north to south across our area - mid to later afternoon north of the Ohio river - late afternoon / early evening for Louisville - evening for areas south of Louisville.

As mentioned before - lots of sunshine returns for Saturday but it will be cooler. H85 temps and mixing schemes suggest highs holding in the lower / mid 60s for Saturday afternoon for the airshow and with clear skies and a north breeze Saturday evening temperatures will be dropping through the 50s for the fireworks show. North breezes will blow the firework smoke towards the Kentucky side of the Ohio river.

On a side note... a very warm start to April - check out this link for more details...
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=50840&source=0

Have a great day all,
Jay

Tuesday Morning Update,,,

GM all... sorry for the long delay but was spending some quality vacation time with my family.
Weather............ wow, tough pattern to beat not only this time of year but really anytime of the year. This beautiful stretch will continue as upper level ridging amplifies across the central and eastern U.S. Through Thursday expect lots of sunshine during the day and mainly clear skies at night. Mixing schemes suggest highs anywhere from 80 to 84 degrees the next 3 days.

Our next rain chance will arrive on Friday as an H5 short - now in the western U.S. - moves up and around the big ridge in place. As this feature moves southeast through the Lakes on the front side of the big ridge, a trailing cold front will slidee across our region Friday with scattered showers and a few storm possible.

The front clears the area by Saturday and just in time for all the "Thunder Over Louisville" events that will bee going on. Bottom line... cooler for Saturday with highs in the 60s for the airshow under partly cloudy skies and mainly clear conditions for the fireworks as temperatures fall back into the 50s by mid/late evening.

have a great day

Jay

Thursday Morning update

Near record warmth possible the next couple of days... check out this link to NWS's page for a list of the record highs for selected cities the next couple of days...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=50372&source=0

Shower chances increase for Saturday as a potent western system moves east/northeast towards the region. Precip will be weakening though as it approaches us for the simple facts that 1) this system is running into a huge "fair weather brick wall" - the upper ridge of high pressure. 2) deep moisture will this system is quite meager.

Beautiful weather returns for Easter Sunday

Jay