A progressive weather pattern on the way for the next 5 days or so... An energetic storm system will affect the region today and tonight with rain. The rain is expected to increase in coverage and intensity later today and continue into the evening hours of tonight. This looks to be a soaking rainfall for the area - which is okay considering we are 4.5" below average already for the year.
Latest QPF data is suggesting a solid inch to perhaps 1.5" of rainfall across the region by midnight tonight.
Instability is weak with this system across the Ohio Valley so little or no thunder expected. Greatest severe threat looks to be well south. Here's the SPC's outlook for today:
This first system moves quickly east later tonight allowing for ridging - both aloft and at the surface to bulid in area. Cooler and drier air will return allowing for lots of sunshine on Friday. Mixing schemes for Friday suggest low 50s for afternoon highs. Saturday looks to be a great day and the "pick of the weekend" as lots of sunshine and H85 temps of +6 to +8C will likely send high temperatures towards the upper 60s range!
Enjoy because the next system moves in for Sunday. Rain chances increase again for later Saturday night and continue Sunday. As a matter of fact, 06Z NAM was suggesting enough instability on Sunday afternoon/early evening for some thunder and with the wind fields in place, a few of these storms could be on the strong side.
Still really early to pin down a severe risk area for Sunday but it is worth watching.
Have a good day all,
Jay
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