Quite the stretch of warmer weather recently... average high for the last 7 days: 62 degrees - not bad !!
Soggy weather on the way for the next 2 to 3 days. A very potent H5 shortwave will lift into the regionc later today. Surface low pressure will develop south of us during the day and track right towards our area. Large scale lift associated with the upper system and WAA (warm air advection) scheme will spread a large area of rain and imbedded thunder into our region later today into the evening hours.
Low level helicity #'s will continue to ramp up later today as the sfc low approaches. SPC has our region in a slight risk for SVR later this afternoon. No doubt this is highly dependent on sfc destabilization. The 06z NAM did have some sfc bassed CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J from about I-65 and points east. Looking at the latest RUC stuff though, impressive helicities and decent CAPE values from just east of I-65.
Rain and imbedded storms should continue to spread north through the region late morning through the afternoon. Greatest threat for SVR (including isolated tornadoes) would be across the eastern half of the viewing area - basically east of I-65. Timing threat (when the atmosphere is most conducive for isolated tornadoes) would be anywhere from around noon to 3 to 4pm.
will keep you posted
Jay
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