An awesome week of weather on the way ! Building heights as the ridge ampilfies over the region. Low level temps and mixing schemes support low/mid 80s by Thursday - and the warmth will continue into the weekend.
Next rain threat comes later Saturday night as a potent H5 short ejects east / northeast from the western trough. This energy while initially very impressive, will likely weaken substantially as it moves into the ridging located over he east half of the nation. Nice weather returns on Sunday and into ealy next week.
enjoy !!
Jay
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Friday, March 26, 2010
Friday Morning Update...
And on to the elite 8 !! impresssive win by the Cats last night as they continue on to the Road to the Final Four.
Impressive storm system now moving away from the region but not before pulling down some pretty cold air. Lots of sunshine returns for today and continues tomorrow. Cold H9 temps and the fact that the profile is showing a pretty strong inversion will keep temps in check today and on the chilly side. Cold again for tonight with even some frost likely. Saturday still will be the pick of the weekend as a mix of high clouds and sun and warming temps aloft will push temperatures at the surface well into the 60s for the afternoon.
Next system affects us Sunday. Good chance for more rainfall as this system passes through.
Later next week.... BIG warming in the cards ????? Looks like !! Upper level ridging really starts to build across the eastern half of the nation. Just about all medium range model outputs are warming the H85 temps to the +11 to +14C range !! This would easily translate to afternoon high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s range !!
Have a nice weekend.
Jay
Impressive storm system now moving away from the region but not before pulling down some pretty cold air. Lots of sunshine returns for today and continues tomorrow. Cold H9 temps and the fact that the profile is showing a pretty strong inversion will keep temps in check today and on the chilly side. Cold again for tonight with even some frost likely. Saturday still will be the pick of the weekend as a mix of high clouds and sun and warming temps aloft will push temperatures at the surface well into the 60s for the afternoon.
Next system affects us Sunday. Good chance for more rainfall as this system passes through.
Later next week.... BIG warming in the cards ????? Looks like !! Upper level ridging really starts to build across the eastern half of the nation. Just about all medium range model outputs are warming the H85 temps to the +11 to +14C range !! This would easily translate to afternoon high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s range !!
Have a nice weekend.
Jay
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Thursday Morning Update
A progressive weather pattern on the way for the next 5 days or so... An energetic storm system will affect the region today and tonight with rain. The rain is expected to increase in coverage and intensity later today and continue into the evening hours of tonight. This looks to be a soaking rainfall for the area - which is okay considering we are 4.5" below average already for the year.
Latest QPF data is suggesting a solid inch to perhaps 1.5" of rainfall across the region by midnight tonight.
Instability is weak with this system across the Ohio Valley so little or no thunder expected. Greatest severe threat looks to be well south. Here's the SPC's outlook for today:
This first system moves quickly east later tonight allowing for ridging - both aloft and at the surface to bulid in area. Cooler and drier air will return allowing for lots of sunshine on Friday. Mixing schemes for Friday suggest low 50s for afternoon highs. Saturday looks to be a great day and the "pick of the weekend" as lots of sunshine and H85 temps of +6 to +8C will likely send high temperatures towards the upper 60s range!
Enjoy because the next system moves in for Sunday. Rain chances increase again for later Saturday night and continue Sunday. As a matter of fact, 06Z NAM was suggesting enough instability on Sunday afternoon/early evening for some thunder and with the wind fields in place, a few of these storms could be on the strong side.
Still really early to pin down a severe risk area for Sunday but it is worth watching.
Have a good day all,
Jay
Monday, March 22, 2010
Monday morning
Hey Spring has arrived... finally !!!!! Taking a few days off work but wanted to chime in real quick. A chilly day today with plenty of clouds and patchy light rain showers & drizzle has big upper low spins just to our south.
This storm system will get kicked east for tomorrow with improvement for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Then the next system moves in for Thursday. More rain expected to develop on Thursday then gradually diminish into Friday morning.
talk to you soon
Jay
This storm system will get kicked east for tomorrow with improvement for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Then the next system moves in for Thursday. More rain expected to develop on Thursday then gradually diminish into Friday morning.
talk to you soon
Jay
Monday, March 15, 2010
Monday Morning Update
GM all,
Hope you had a great weekend. The weather certainly wasn't the best... Oh well a chance to stay indoors and get some work done.
Looks like a quiet, uneventful week on the way for the Ohio Valley. A large scale trough will hold over the eastern 1/2 of the nation through Wednesday - St. Patrick's Day. A couple of short waves will be traveling through this trough with the brunt of the energy from both of these shorts remaining to our west and south. Little more than periods of clouds will result for us. This trough will keep H85 temps in the -2 to 0C range so March mixing schemes would suggest highs remaining in the low/mid 50s. Ridging finally builds in for Thursday and Friday. A couple of great days to wrap up the work week. Bright sunshine expected those two days and with H85 temps moderating to the +2 to +4C range, temperatures should recover well into the 60s both those days.
Next rain chance is expected to come Saturday / Saturday night time frame as a strong H5 jet max digs southeast across the central plains and carves out a fairly amplified trough across the Midwest and Ohio Valley for the weekend. Severe with this system ???? at this time - I don't think so as substantial instability looks meager with this system which is still dropping south of east until it gets just west of us - at which time it finally bottoms out and makes the turn to the east/northeast. We'll keep you posted...
Ohio River Update: The river is rising ! Here's the latest from NWS...
Have a great day all,
Jay
Friday, March 12, 2010
Friday Morning Update
Quite the stretch of warmer weather recently... average high for the last 7 days: 62 degrees - not bad !!
Soggy weather on the way for the next 2 to 3 days. A very potent H5 shortwave will lift into the regionc later today. Surface low pressure will develop south of us during the day and track right towards our area. Large scale lift associated with the upper system and WAA (warm air advection) scheme will spread a large area of rain and imbedded thunder into our region later today into the evening hours.
Low level helicity #'s will continue to ramp up later today as the sfc low approaches. SPC has our region in a slight risk for SVR later this afternoon. No doubt this is highly dependent on sfc destabilization. The 06z NAM did have some sfc bassed CAPE on the order of 500 to 1000 J from about I-65 and points east. Looking at the latest RUC stuff though, impressive helicities and decent CAPE values from just east of I-65.
Rain and imbedded storms should continue to spread north through the region late morning through the afternoon. Greatest threat for SVR (including isolated tornadoes) would be across the eastern half of the viewing area - basically east of I-65. Timing threat (when the atmosphere is most conducive for isolated tornadoes) would be anywhere from around noon to 3 to 4pm.
will keep you posted
Jay
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Tuesday Midday
A few light showers possible later today into the eveening. This band of rain is encountering dry air though and is running away from the upper level support. Bottom line whatever we do get won't be much.
Warm temperatures continue as major trough continues to amplify to our west. Temperatures this afternoon - mid/upper 60s... tomorrow we're in the warm sector. Any low level cloudiness should mix out and give way to partly cloudy skies with highs near 70 !!! Several shortwaves/vort maxes traveling through the trough will continue to give us periodic rain chances. With the exception of lateer today's and this evening's ligth sct'd showers, the next best chance comes at us late Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm frontal boundary lifts north through the area. Some elevated instability will likely be present so some thunderstorm activity will also bee possible with this rain batch.
Jay
Warm temperatures continue as major trough continues to amplify to our west. Temperatures this afternoon - mid/upper 60s... tomorrow we're in the warm sector. Any low level cloudiness should mix out and give way to partly cloudy skies with highs near 70 !!! Several shortwaves/vort maxes traveling through the trough will continue to give us periodic rain chances. With the exception of lateer today's and this evening's ligth sct'd showers, the next best chance comes at us late Wednesday night into Thursday as a warm frontal boundary lifts north through the area. Some elevated instability will likely be present so some thunderstorm activity will also bee possible with this rain batch.
Jay
Friday, March 5, 2010
Friday midday
Another great day on the way for the region... upper 40s and lots of sun. Same weather pattern expected for tomorrow - and after a very chilly and frosty early morning, temperatures will climb nicely into the low to perhaps mid 50s by early/mid afternoon.
The only "fly" for the weekend ... a weakening disturbance moving in from the northwest. This thing will have no low level moisture to work with as the Gulf is totally shut down but as the disturbance approaches, PVA and mid level WAA will generate some lift across the Ohio valley later in the day. Clouds will be increasing with even a few spotty showers possible in the afternoon - with the best chance for these spotty showers being north of Louisville. Temperatures are still expected to be pleasant for Sunday with 50s on the way. How high in the 50s really depends on when the thicker mid deck of clouds arrives but at this time we still like mid/upper 50s.
Bottom line, a pretty nice early March weekend on the way. 50s for both of our weekend days. The pick of the weekend - Saturday !! as there will be more clouds and that spotty rain chance by Sunday afternoon.
Have a great weekend all
Jay
Monday, March 1, 2010
Monday morning update...
all in all, quiet weather on the way this week. A strong system passing/developing to our south/southeast will keep us in the clouds and continues chilly conditions the next several days. Even a few flurries/patchy drizzle will be possible from time to time. The good news, a break in the cold pattern on the way for the weekend. Finally the polar jet is retreating north and by the second half of the weekend, a south to southwesterly flow will set up across the Ohio Valley. Bottom line ... it's gonns get much warmer - for a change. 50s and perhaps a few 60s on the way for the weekend with Sunday looking to be the warmest of the 2 weekend days
Tomorrow March 2nd...
Kentucky’s statewide Tornado Drill on the Emergency Alert System (EAS), scheduled for Tuesday, March 2, 2010 at 10:07 a.m. EDT / 9:07 a.m. CDT.
How about this ... from the NWS...
No tornadoes in February 2010
Mar 1st, 2010 By Harold Brooks Category: U.S. Severe Weather Blog
There were no tornadoes reported in the United States in February 2010. Assuming that no late reports are received, it will be the first time in the National Weather Service’s database that starts in 1950 that there has been a February without a tornado. If we include Tom Grazulis’s database of F2 and stronger tornadoes, the last time it’s possible there wasn’t a February tornado was 1947. The last tornado reported in the US was on 24 January, in north-central Tennessee. The last calendar month without a tornado was January 2003.
What does this tell us about the rest of the 2010 tornado season? Somewhere between a little and nothing at all. Most years that have started out with few tornadoes have ended up average or below. However, there have been big exceptions. Most notably, in 2003, we started out with no tornadoes in the first 45 days of the year. Even as late as 29 April, it was the slowest start in the database (after adjusting for report inflation, as discussed here.) By the 11th of May, however, 2003 was well above normal following a remarkably active week. So, even though it’s been a slow start to the season, people still need to be aware of the threats that may happen later on.
What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing. The large-scale atmospheric pattern that persisted over the US for the month of February was unfavorable for tornadoes. There’s nothing in the scientific literature that provides information on any changes to expect with tornadoes in the future, so the no-tornado February can’t be interpreted in that light.
see ya later
Jay
Tomorrow March 2nd...
Kentucky’s statewide Tornado Drill on the Emergency Alert System (EAS), scheduled for Tuesday, March 2, 2010 at 10:07 a.m. EDT / 9:07 a.m. CDT.
How about this ... from the NWS...
No tornadoes in February 2010
Mar 1st, 2010 By Harold Brooks Category: U.S. Severe Weather Blog
There were no tornadoes reported in the United States in February 2010. Assuming that no late reports are received, it will be the first time in the National Weather Service’s database that starts in 1950 that there has been a February without a tornado. If we include Tom Grazulis’s database of F2 and stronger tornadoes, the last time it’s possible there wasn’t a February tornado was 1947. The last tornado reported in the US was on 24 January, in north-central Tennessee. The last calendar month without a tornado was January 2003.
What does this tell us about the rest of the 2010 tornado season? Somewhere between a little and nothing at all. Most years that have started out with few tornadoes have ended up average or below. However, there have been big exceptions. Most notably, in 2003, we started out with no tornadoes in the first 45 days of the year. Even as late as 29 April, it was the slowest start in the database (after adjusting for report inflation, as discussed here.) By the 11th of May, however, 2003 was well above normal following a remarkably active week. So, even though it’s been a slow start to the season, people still need to be aware of the threats that may happen later on.
What does it tell us about long-term trends? Again, essentially nothing. The large-scale atmospheric pattern that persisted over the US for the month of February was unfavorable for tornadoes. There’s nothing in the scientific literature that provides information on any changes to expect with tornadoes in the future, so the no-tornado February can’t be interpreted in that light.
see ya later
Jay
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