To be honest with you, I only use the GFS as trend guidance beyond the 72 to especially 84 hr time frame. Well, we are now getting inside that window and the GFS has showed remarkable run to run consistancy with this system. Looking at last night's 00z run, if this position and intensity verifies... we are going to get another substantial snow here as I believe its associated QPF field is UNDERdone.
We'll see what the new stuff has to say ... The 06z did support the overall consistancy though.
It looks like some light snow will develop during the day Sunday due to a weakening lead H5 short ahead of the main system and some weak to modest WAA/isentropic lift.
Sunday night is when the snow should really start to pick up (if that H5 low position verifies). It's during this time frame when we really get into a favorable position with regards to the upper low. It looks like the def zone would get cranking right over us. In addition, with H85 temps in the -9 to -12c range, ratios look to be quite high and on the order of 15 or perhaps even 17:1.
We'll keep you updated as the new 12z data package iss coming in now...
Jay
3 comments:
Thanks, Jay...keep us posted...
Wayne - New Albany
(YEs, I'm actually posting on here, this time!)
Jay, just wanted to say, keep up the good work...love the blog. It's a good way to see whats up in the weather on the go, keep posting and we the viewers will keep reading.
Jay,
was just wondering how much underdone you are thinking?? Could we actually see more from this clipper than we just seen from the previous storm?
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