Thursday morning Update

Active weather pattern to remain the next 5 to 7 days... Several disturbances will be passing through the region bringing us periodic bouts of precipitation including rain... snow... and a mix of the two.
Two distinct systems will affect the Ohio Valley. The first beginning tonight and continuing through Saturday morning. The second... early next week during the Monday night through Tuesday time frame.

The first system will bring us a a mix of precip. Dry weather expected through today (Thursday) including the evening commute. A cold rain is expected to gradually spread from southwest to northeast across the region this evening. Fcst soundings suggest mainly a rain event for much of our area - although there could be a mix at the onset for the areas north / northeast of Louisville. This cold rain scenario will continue through Friday with the rain expected to taper some later in the day as the lead H5 disturbance moves east of the region. Some colder air will be pulled south behind this first disturbance Friday night. A secondary H5 speedmax/vort will rotate through the upper trough over the area Friday night enhancing the overall atmospheric lift resulting in another round of precipitation. We are expecting this second waave of precip to gradually change to snow from north to south Friday night. Once the changeover occurs, model qpf guidance suggesting in the neighborhood of .1 to .2". This snow will likely initially be falling at temps at or above freezing so some melting will occur and most of the accums will likely be confined to the grassy areas. It looks like a dusting to 2 inches could occur Friday overnight with this system - with the better chances for the 2 inch amounts across southern Indiana where overall temp profile will be a bit colder.

Then comes Sunday !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Colts: 34, Saints: 31. Should be a great game !

Early next week, the next disturbance from the west begins affecting us. Still some disagreement as to the amount of cold air that will be in place throughout the event. GFS going back and forth on the amount of phasing that will take place. The more phasing... the deeper the system - the more the precip generated - but also the warmer the air that will be pulled north into the Ohio Valley. Some of the other models are showing less phasing and as a result lighter precip but also colder air through the event. Certainly looks like snow will move in later Monday / Monday night - with a chance for a changeover to rain on Tuedsay (especially if the 00z run to last night's GFS has the handle) ... then back to snow Tuesday night behind the system as colder air is pulled back in. This second system has got some potential to be a decent storm (snow maker) for the area. Still a few things in flux but just know that there will certainly be another shot at some wintry weather early next week.

We'll keep you updated...
Jay