Upper low progged to track very close to Louisville on the new runs and no doubt there has been a northward shift to the track the last couple of runs. So what does it mean... once the H5 system bottoms out, snow should really develop rapidly tomorrow evening to our west and spread east as the night wears on. We think the heaviest snow from this system 5 to 6 (locally 7") is going to fall north of Louisville and just north of the H7 track - which by the way looks to be right over Louisville.
Snow should form around the metro by late evening Sunday and really pick up with several hours of moderate to heavy snow during the overnight hours. The intensity of the snow looks as if it will taper substantially from near Louisville and points south as the H7 dry slot rotates in. Snow will continue north of Louisville where the deformation zone will be setting up. Once the upper low shifts east... some wrap around to the def zone will move back into the metro and points south giving us more mainly light snow. The light snow will diminish to flurries and a few snow showers Monday night into Tuesday with additional only light accumulations expected.
So again...
a) track a bit farther north... The heaviest snow will likely fall just north of the metro - across southern Indiana.
b) Snow (accumulating) starts late evening Sunday and continues through the overnight... 2 to 3 inches possible by dawn Monday,,, a brief lull in the snow for Louisville and points south Monday morning but the snow continues northern areas.. Light snow returns to the metro and points south Monday late morning or so and continues into the afternoon with addtional accumulations of an inch or two in Louisville - little less south - but more north.
Here's our latest snow forecast:
we'll have another update for you all tomorrow morning...
Jay
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