Hello all...
A cold and crisp Friday morning... around 14 in town this morning but no doubt mant location well into the single digits...
Big talk continues to be the "clipper" system for Sunday through Monday. GFS has shown awesome run to run consistency and at this point ... hard to buck it. All the other models have the same general solution as well so...
Not much has changed from yesterday.... it still looks like some patchy light snow on Sunday with the general WAA scheme and isentropic lift. The main snow should arrive Sunday night into Monday morning as the H5 system passes just south of us putting us in that favorable deformation zone area. Ratios should also come into play... basically a 10:1 on Sunday but going to more of a 15 or even 17:1 by the time the event is wrapping up on Monday.
Amounts... you all know my philosophy by now and as far as I'm concerned it's too early to talk specific totals here but............... Looking at QPF outputs / ratio changes through the event, position of the H5 system (as long as that position verifies) and just remembering past events that have been similar to the track and intensity that this one seems to have, we are thinking up to an inch on Sunday... an addtional 2 to 4" Sunday night into Monday... So If you pinned me down and tortured me with a thousand feathers (that's a bit weird), I'd say 3 to 5" for the area AT THIS TIME.... As you guys know things can still change. One thing to watch for would be the .50" QPF output that the GFS has in scattered spots - if that were to verify, no doubt some areas would get localized 6 to 7 inch amounts - but I'm not ready to "officially" say this just yet.
It does appear that we will bee adding to our current snow field and looking ahead (as my good friend Wayne pointed out) the NAO stays negative for quite some time several systems possible the next couple of weeks. Bottom line, it appears this certainly will noot be the last wintry event. Finally a decent winter !!
Tell me your thoughts guys, amounts, timing, etc....
thanks and have a great Friday
Jay
4 comments:
Hey Jay,
there are some local mets talking about this clipper storm perhaps turning into a major winter storm beginning on Sunday and lasting thru tues. I noticed the HPC really puts down the liquid ...was wondering if you feel this will verify or not. If it does how much snow do you think will fall?
jeremy
Jay,
I really enjoy your insight and I think that you and all of the local mets do a great job! With such great insight, what are the chances that you could post more than once a day? I, and I am sure many others, love reading all the different opinions about what might happen in our weather and would love to see you post more often! Keep up the good work!
Hi Jeremy, sorry for the late response... I see HPC has got ~.75" for the area. ??? No idea where they are getting that much QPF.. and I don't agree with that at this time. By the time the system starts ramping up, the H85, H7 WAA is already well east of us as is the surface low. Our snow is primarily going to come from the def zone / comma head. Latest stuff I see supports 3 to 5". Lets see what the new stuff says in the morning.
Hi Jeff, I really do enjoy posting but I gotta tell you, these detailed posts take a lot of time and with 3 kids and a wife - time is in short demand. I will try my best to give you guys more posts especially as the system nears. Thanks very much for the kind words my friend, have a great weekend and stay in touch
Jay
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