Friday evening update

A disturbance rotating around the big NE storm will spread clouds and eventually some light snow into the area as the night wears on. The snow is expected to spread from NE to SW and develop well after midnight.
Watch for soem slick spots in the morning but as temperatures climb above freezing by midday, roads are expected to be mainly just wet.

We'll keep you updated

Jay

Friday morning update...

Big storm continues to rage in the northeast U.S. The pressure gradient between the eastern storm and high pressure to our west will certainly be steep enough to bring us some breezy conditions today. At least the sun is out and all in all, it's going to be a nice day.

That eastern storm is blocked... i.e. there's not much movement to it. As a shortwave / speedmax rotates around the upper low tonight and tomorrow, this will actually pull (retrograde) the low back to the west some. Moisture is expected to increase across our area and as a result, some patchy light snow and flurries will once again be possible Saturday into Sunday morning. Models QPFs spitting out light amounts so there could be a dusting in spots - but that should be about it

Another snow chance on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. This is a complicated setup. Strong southwest short to eject east. Because of the block in place, it will be forced to take the southern route - what's new ?? At the same time, a piece of northern stream energy will be dropping into the Ohio Valley. This is where things get interesting. The models are showing these two systems kind of dumbbelling around each other with the southern stream energy staying well south and producing strong cyclogenesis in the deep south and southeast and another big snow for the mid-Atlantic. For us... the northern stream enregy also pulls some moisture north into the Ohio Valley and we end up getting more - basically light - snow. The thing that's interesting to me is the possibility for more phasing between the two streams with the end result of a stronger system that would be farther north (and closer to us) and a possible bigger snow event for our area ?????

GFS still hinting at rising heights towards the end of next week and moderating the pattern some... hmmmmm ?? we'll see about that but then again it will be the first week of March by then.

Have a nice weekend all,

Jay

Thursday midday...

Mega snow storm is really starting to take shape for the northeast U.S. Some parts of New York, PA, NJ could see 1 to 2 feet of heavy snow and a few spots even more than that. In additon the winds will really start to ramp up as the storms rapidly deepens over the next 24 hours or so.

Here's one of the highway cams from just north of NYC.

Believe it or not, this storm will also continue to impact us into this weekend ! The northeast system will be moving only very slowly as the pattern further downstream is all blocked up. As a result this will continue to keep us with a cold (and well below average) northerly flow. In addition, as energy rotates around the upper low in the northeast, deeper moisture is forecast by all models to rotate back into our region from the north and northeast on Saturday. Another round of light snow a flurries is expected at this time. No major accumulations but certainly the possiblity for another inch or so...

Looking down the pike... possible moderating trend next wednesday and Thursday ?? Latest 12z GFS is sshowing rising heights and ridging across the central U.S. !! Not buying it just yet as the overall pattern has been very blocky and persistent (i.e. cold for us) and hard to break down. Lots of times persistence is best in looking at the out periods - but then again it will be March afterall !! We'll see.

Have a great day all and stay warm

Jay

Wednesday Evening Update...

Winter weather advisory has been issued for the overnight... Looks good to me as these isolated snow showers have formed and they keep moving over the same areas. Those locations that will receive the heavier "training" snow showers will likely pick up 1 to 2 inches of fluffy snow.

Slick spots have been reported... please be careful and slow down if traveling...
Okay... I'm a snow lover but you know what??? enough is enough !! Have a great night all and stay warm !
Jay

Tuesday morning update...

GM all. Well the colder air is back and it looks like with the block in place to the northeast, it's going to stick around for a while longer. As a matter of fact the next 7 to 10 days still look very cold for this time of year with occasional bouts of flurries and snow showers.


Strong short / speed max to dive into the Ohio Valley later tonight and tomorrow - closing off an H5 low just to our north. The associated cold front and PVA (positive vorticity advection) will move through Wednesday morning and could provide enough concentrated lift for a brief period of light snow. Accumulations would be light but if this band of light snow were to materialize the timing would not be good - early morning and possibly affecting the AM commute.




This band of snow (if it forms) should rapidly move through by mid morning allowing for some brief clearing. But then as the strong CAA takes over creating steep lapse rates, occasional snow showers are expected to form and continue for much of Wednesday afternoon.

I don't see any major storms for the Ohio Valley the next 5 days. Beyond this however, next Monday night / Tuesday hold some promise. A strong southwestern system will be forced to move easterly - to the south of the block. No doubt this will keep plenty of cold air in the Ohio Valley. Big Q is... does this system go to far south and miss us altogether? The operational GFS says yes - no storm !! But the ensembles - say perhaps not. Most of the ensemble members to the GFS are farther north with the surface system and there are several members that do bring snow into the lower Ohio Valley.



Knowing that we are getting into early March and the tendency for all these systems so far this winter has been to actually track farther north than what the earlier model runs were saying tells me we definitely have a shot at some decent winter weather early next week. Of course it's still really early in the game and a lot of little things have to come together yet - but just know that the chance is certainly there.


will keep you updated and stay warm.

Jay

Monday morning update

After catching a brief bout of Spring fever this past weekend, it's back to the cold stuff for a while. The northern stream will become the dominant storm track for our region the rest of the work week. Although no major snow or ice storms are in the works this week, flurries and snow showers will once again enter our picture as an intense upper H5 low form over the Ohio Valley the next 48 hours or so. Temperatures will head south again as H85 temps drop to the -12 to -16c range. Keep in mind it is late February now though and also the fact that the snow cover is pretty much gone, so although it'll still be quite chilly, mixing will be quite deep allowing for the temperatures to warm moreso than if it were January or we had a snow cover.

The next potential winter event looks like it'll hold off until next Sunday or a week from today. The strong system will be ejecting from the southwestern US. Of course the exact track will determine what type of precip will get. The GFS is still holding on to a pretty strong block in the northeast. If this actually happens this would keep the above mentioned system on more of a southerly track - thereby giving us better chances for some wintry weather. However, not sure this will play out like the GFS is advertising as we are now getting into March and the snow cover is dwindling from here and points north. I will say this... the GFS has performed quite well this season and the block has been a very persistent feature to the overall pattern. It''l be interesting to seee how things develop and we should have a better handle on what this system has in store for us a bit later on in the week...

Jay

Friday evening update...

A little break from the cold wetaher this weekend... And we need it !! Officially 20.1 inches of snow in Louisville for the winter and yes sir... that is above average. This go around however, it looks like it'll be all rain.

We do have a weak system passing through overnight. The low layers are super dry though so only very light precip expected - with the best chances to the north of the metro. Low level temps suggest that there could be a quick bout of light frzg rain / sprinkles in these areas.

Clouds are expected to thim some for Saturday afternoon allowing for temperatures to climb into the upper 40s making for a decent afternoon. Later Saturday night into Sunday, a few WAA showers may skirt the area with the best chances just north of the Ohio River. By midday into the afternoon, we are expecting mainly dry conditions with a few breaks in the clouds possible. Temperatures in the boundary layer suggest low to perhaps mid 50s by later Sunday afternoon. The main storm will push in for Sunday night and early Monday with rain but also continued mild temperatures.

Much colder air will shift back into the region for next week as temperatures once again settle to levels way below average with also the increased chance for snow showers by Tuesday night or Wednesday as much of the data is closing off a strong surge of H5 energy in the Ohio valley.

These colder than average temperatures look as if they will hold firm into next weekend as well. So let's talk big snow ??? chances ??? not great at this time. If (and only if) we get phasing occurring between the northern and southern streams just to our west then will we see those bigger snow chances increasing for our area. At this time though... I don't see it happening - which by the way won't disappoint me all that much as it's time to bring on Spring and thunderstorms !!

have a great weekend all

Jay

Monday Midday update...

Snow continues at this time but should be rapidly diminishing early this afternoon . No doubt, it's been a beautiful snow with basically 2 to 4 inches south of Louisville and 4 to 8 inches from Louisville and points north. Heaviest snow has occurred across the southern portions of indiana where widespread 6 to 8 inch amounts have been reported. In my backyard as of 11:45am, I've received 4.75 inches from this storm and suspect I'll end up with between 5 to 6 by the time all is said and done...

Jay

Monday morning Update...

Hi folks...

Dry slot has made it into the metro and points south and should not make it any farther north... As a matter of fact, the wrap around is already returniong from the west so the snow will once again pick up across the area throughout the rest of the morning with a gradual diminish to the snowfall as the upper system pulls away this afternoon.

So far as of 9:15 am around 3 to 4" of new snow for Jefferson county KY but just north - more has been reported with totals already in the 4 to 7 inch range and 2 to 3 still possible yet today. To the south of Louisville, generally 1 to 4 inches reported with perhaps another inch or two through out the day. It looks like Louisville will probably get (storm total) between 4 inches in the southern parts of the county to 5 or 6 in the northern parts of the county.

Jay

Sunday afternoon update

The more data that I see from this Sunday's runs, the more I like our going forecast...

No changes at this time folks... Patchy light snow and flurries for the rest of the afternoon and evening... little or no accumulations.

Big snow to kick in later tonight into tomorrow. 3 to 6 inches (locally 7") from Jefferson county, KY and points north - with the 6 and 7 inch amounts occurring north of Louisville - Bedford, Seymour, North Vernon, Scottsburg, Madison - Ground zero for those 6 to locally 7 inch amounts. 2 to 4 inches likely south of Louisville across much of Kentucky.

Have a great afternoon and enjoy the snow !

Jay

Sunday morning update...

Hello and happy Valentines Day!!

Snow still on the way for later tonight into tomorrow. If you read last night's entry... great !! because that stil looks dead on. GFS, NAM, UKMET, CANADIAN.......... you get the drift here, just about all the models are coming in with a very similar track now. Upper systems pretty much track right on top of Louisville. A band producing several hours of moderate to even heavy snow is likely late tonight into early-early tomorrow morning as the upper system takes on a negative tilt. This is actually the time when the metro and points south may very well pick up a majority of our snowfall. This also looks to be the main "feeder" band for the def zone that will really start to take place and set up just north of the metro across southern Indiana. This band of snow will likely produce 2 to 3 (locally 4 inch) amounts by daybreak Monday. Then as a punch of drier air works in at H7 (the dreaded dry slot) from Louisville and points south, The snowfall will likely really taper off substantially - but continue to fall at a good clip under the deformation zone to the north of Louisville over southern Indiana. As the H5/H7 systems pull away, the deeper mid-level moisture should get pulled back south over the metro and northern Kentucky producing more light snowfall with another inch or two possible. Flurries and few snow showers Monday night into Tuesday but only minor accumulations at best expected during this time frame.

So by the time everything is all said and done we still like our going forecast from last night's 11pm newscast: 3 to 6 inches - localized 7 inch amounts - from Louisville (Jefferson county) and points north (with the better chances for the 6 and 7 inch amounts north of the metro and across southern portions of Indiana). Places like Seymore, Bedford, North Vernon, Austin, Scottsburg, etc... look to to ground zero for the heaviest snow with this system. Pinning me down and being tortured by a 1000 feathers (again - that's a bit weird) I'd say around 4 inches for Louisville - which is still very substantial as you know !

More B-ball for my son today... we play at 11:30am - gotta go guys as we won both games yesterday ...I'm the assistant coach - wish us luck. I'll have much more later this afternoon.

Have a great day and C'mon Snow !!!!!!!!!!

Jay

Saturday Late Night...

Hi Folks...

Upper low progged to track very close to Louisville on the new runs and no doubt there has been a northward shift to the track the last couple of runs. So what does it mean... once the H5 system bottoms out, snow should really develop rapidly tomorrow evening to our west and spread east as the night wears on. We think the heaviest snow from this system 5 to 6 (locally 7") is going to fall north of Louisville and just north of the H7 track - which by the way looks to be right over Louisville.

Snow should form around the metro by late evening Sunday and really pick up with several hours of moderate to heavy snow during the overnight hours. The intensity of the snow looks as if it will taper substantially from near Louisville and points south as the H7 dry slot rotates in. Snow will continue north of Louisville where the deformation zone will be setting up. Once the upper low shifts east... some wrap around to the def zone will move back into the metro and points south giving us more mainly light snow. The light snow will diminish to flurries and a few snow showers Monday night into Tuesday with additional only light accumulations expected.

So again...

a) track a bit farther north... The heaviest snow will likely fall just north of the metro - across southern Indiana.
b) Snow (accumulating) starts late evening Sunday and continues through the overnight... 2 to 3 inches possible by dawn Monday,,, a brief lull in the snow for Louisville and points south Monday morning but the snow continues northern areas.. Light snow returns to the metro and points south Monday late morning or so and continues into the afternoon with addtional accumulations of an inch or two in Louisville - little less south - but more north.

Here's our latest snow forecast:





we'll have another update for you all tomorrow morning...

Jay

late afternoon update...

Hey guys... inbetween games.. We won the first !!

Quick look at the 18z products....

there has been a definite northward trend on the track of the H5 low in the models. That would place the absolute heaviest snow from this system north of the metro and across central and southern Indiana. There's a chance that the H7 dry slot may come into play for Louisville and points south now. As you all know, I really don't like to take the off hour models with anything more than a grain of salt but both the NAM and GFS 18z runs are a little farther north... A hiccup or trend ...??? We'll See,

Jay

Saturday Midday Update...

Hey all...
sorry about the late post and this will be a very short one.. We have basketball today for my son. I am working tonight's 11pm though so be sure to tune in then. I had a chance to look at the new 12z stuff and folks.... it's gonna snow !! Upper low track is still very consistant on the GFS model on a run to run basis. 12z canadian is also mirroring the GFS solution.
Looks to me that some patchy light snow will be possible Sunday afternoon - not a big deal at all !
The snow will really ramp up in coverage and intensity late Sunday night into Monday as the upper H5 low moves in and takes on a negative tilt to some extent. Our snow will come from the deformation zone. Guys at this time, I thinking we will be ramping up snow amounts some. This deformation zone looks like it has the potential to put down 4 to 8 inches of snow because ratios will be increasing with this event as well. The only Q is the exact track of the upper low. If the low does take the GFS' and Canadian's track then that 4 to 8 inches looks like a good bet right here in the Louisville area - and much of our viewing area for that matter.
HPC's QPF is anywhere from .5 to .6 and with the expected ratios - that should easily be within our forecast snow range.

So, AT THIS TIME - if the GFS' and Canadian's track holds firm -I thinking 4 to 8" by later Monday afternoon.

Gotta go to the game now... Another update later today or evening.

See ya
Jay

Friday morning update...

Hello all...

A cold and crisp Friday morning... around 14 in town this morning but no doubt mant location well into the single digits...

Big talk continues to be the "clipper" system for Sunday through Monday. GFS has shown awesome run to run consistency and at this point ... hard to buck it. All the other models have the same general solution as well so...

Not much has changed from yesterday.... it still looks like some patchy light snow on Sunday with the general WAA scheme and isentropic lift. The main snow should arrive Sunday night into Monday morning as the H5 system passes just south of us putting us in that favorable deformation zone area. Ratios should also come into play... basically a 10:1 on Sunday but going to more of a 15 or even 17:1 by the time the event is wrapping up on Monday.

Amounts... you all know my philosophy by now and as far as I'm concerned it's too early to talk specific totals here but............... Looking at QPF outputs / ratio changes through the event, position of the H5 system (as long as that position verifies) and just remembering past events that have been similar to the track and intensity that this one seems to have, we are thinking up to an inch on Sunday... an addtional 2 to 4" Sunday night into Monday... So If you pinned me down and tortured me with a thousand feathers (that's a bit weird), I'd say 3 to 5" for the area AT THIS TIME.... As you guys know things can still change. One thing to watch for would be the .50" QPF output that the GFS has in scattered spots - if that were to verify, no doubt some areas would get localized 6 to 7 inch amounts - but I'm not ready to "officially" say this just yet.

It does appear that we will bee adding to our current snow field and looking ahead (as my good friend Wayne pointed out) the NAO stays negative for quite some time several systems possible the next couple of weeks. Bottom line, it appears this certainly will noot be the last wintry event. Finally a decent winter !!

Tell me your thoughts guys, amounts, timing, etc....

thanks and have a great Friday

Jay

Thursday morning update...

GM folks... took a little break the last day or so... Well the big talk is the next snow chance (substantial chance) for later this weekend into early next week. ALL the models have this system in some fashion moving across the Ohio Valley / Tennessee Valley Sunday into Monday.

To be honest with you, I only use the GFS as trend guidance beyond the 72 to especially 84 hr time frame. Well, we are now getting inside that window and the GFS has showed remarkable run to run consistancy with this system. Looking at last night's 00z run, if this position and intensity verifies... we are going to get another substantial snow here as I believe its associated QPF field is UNDERdone.

We'll see what the new stuff has to say ... The 06z did support the overall consistancy though.

It looks like some light snow will develop during the day Sunday due to a weakening lead H5 short ahead of the main system and some weak to modest WAA/isentropic lift.



Sunday night is when the snow should really start to pick up (if that H5 low position verifies). It's during this time frame when we really get into a favorable position with regards to the upper low. It looks like the def zone would get cranking right over us. In addition, with H85 temps in the -9 to -12c range, ratios look to be quite high and on the order of 15 or perhaps even 17:1.





We'll keep you updated as the new 12z data package iss coming in now...


Jay

Tuesday Evening Update...

A real frozen tundra tonight... As the upper low spins through the region, occasional flurries & snow showers will continue... In all, with the very high ratios overnight, an additional inch will be possible in areas.

Hey, you're not going to believe this but did you all see the data for the upcoming weekend ???
The latest guidance is keying in on another "clipper" type system that it really progged to intensify as it approaches our area. Actually, it really reminds me of the system that gave us 2 to 4 inches of snow in early January !! Talk about being stuck in a winter rut !! This is in addition to a batch of light snow that will be possible with a fast moving H5 vort max Friday night. Wow, what a pattern




Take care all and stay warm

Jay

Late Morning Tuesday...

Snow is about done and overall real happy with the snow forecast. Most locations coming in with between 4 and 6 inches. Did get one report of 7" near Taylorsville, KY. Wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a few more near the 7 inch amounts just south of the metro area.

At 10:50am... 5.25" in my backyard (northeast Jefferson county).

Snow ends here shortly... even a little sun mixed in this afternoon. Then later today / tonight, clouds returns as the upper low passes just north of us along with occasional snow showers and flurries. Winds will also pick up in the 15 to 25 mph range from the west and temperatures will drop into the teens tonight with wind chills single digits to neat 0 at times.

stay warm and enjoy the snow.
Jay

Early Monday afternoon update

Okay here's the updated expected snow amounts graphic...
click on the link:
http://www.wlky.com/2010/0208/22496066_720x486.jpg



Jay

Monday midday update...

Okay folks ... we've looked at the latest data and we're going to pretty much stay with what we have but instead of saying "3 to 5, locally 6"... we're going to go straight up 3 to 6" for about the NW 2/3rds of the area (including Louisville) with 1 to 3 across the SE third. Some rain mixing in is still possible tomorrow mid/late morning in /near Louisville although the best cahnces for the changeover/mixibg with rain will be along and south of a Shepherdsville, KY to Shelbyville, KY to Frankfort, KY line or just (and I mean JUST) east, southeast of Louisville.

Timing: snow develops this evening after the PM commute (decent snow likely after 9 or 10pm)... picks up overnight with 2 to 3" already possible by daybreak Tuesday. Then an additional 1 to 3" possible through early afternoon Tuesday - closer to 1 inch if the rain mixes in to nearly 3 more inches if it stays all snow.

New snow map will be ot shortly...

Jay

Monday Mid-morning

An EARLY glance at the 12z NAM suggests total QPF from this system in the .50 to .75" range for a large swath of our region. Thermal profiles off the latest run suggest mainly snow from near Louisville and points north - with a snow to rain then back to snow scenario for areas south of Louisville.
NAM 21hr fcst sounding for SDF (valid 15z Tue) did have a small layer near 950 slightly above critical. It's certainly possible there could be a brief changeover to rain or a mix for a few hours tomorrow mid/late morning in Louisville ... but I would think this would have a better chance of staying all snow in Louisville due to the fact that the upper system is still dropping south of east somewhat and this tends to lock down (or at least slow down) the movement of the thermal patterns not to mention that although some warming of the column is likely - much of the WAA (warm air advection) is likely going into vertical motion and precip generation. As a result, the column may stay colder (and all snow) than what the new 12 NAM is suggesting. And even if we did see a brief changeover (I'm talking about the Louisville metro area here), as I mentioned above it would likely be brief and on the tail end of the widespread precip shield. Bottomline, overall snow amounts would likely not be impacted all that much even if there were to be a brief changeover.

QPF amounts off the NAM are definitely higher... we'll see what the GFS has to say about both the QPF and thermal patterns. But if the GFS comes in agreement with the NAM, it's very possible we'll be upping the amounts some again before tonight's 5 pm newscast.

Also, I can't stress enough how wintry snowy, windy, and cold) it's going to be around here tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Although the heaviest of the snow will be over, as the upper low shifts through the region, periods of light snow, flurries, and snow showers will continue. Additional accumulations with this activity will be light and generally lesss than 1 inch but the winds will be gusty with some blowing snow and the temperatures down as wind chill values could be approaching 0 degrees overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning...

We'll have another "official" expected snowfall update later on today

Jay

Monday morning Update...

A VERY wintry period on the way !!! Snow, wind, cold .... folks, it is likely going to look like the frozen tundra around here come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning !

Our forecast has upped snow amounts to the 3 to 5 inch range for Louisville and points north with even isolated 6 inch amounts in the north/northwest and 1 to 3" for areas south of the western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys - where a bit more rain may try to mix in.

Click this link for the forecast snow amounts...

http://www.wlky.com/2010/0208/22496066_720x486.jpg


The 12z data pkg will be comig in shortly... update a bit later this morning.
This may be our biggest snowfall for Louisville so far this season...

talk to you in a bit,
Jay

Snow On The Way - Again!! Sunday Evening Update

Here we go again... our active winter weather pattern continues... More snow and cold temperatures on the way. The AM & PM commutes are expected to be just fine weather-wise but by later Monday evening, snow is expected to develop from west to east across the region. Snow will continue through the overnight hours into Tuesday morning and then gradually diminish to flurries by midday Tuesday. Below is our latest snow forecast for this event...


Amounts will be lighter to the south / southeast as some rain is expected to mix in with the snow late Monday night or early Tuesday morning especially near and south of the Western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys.
Additional LIGHT accumulations will also be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. In addition, cold, arctic air will rush into our area on gusty west , northwest winds. Temperatures are expected to drop from the lower / mid 30s late morning Tuesday to the upper teens / lower 20s BY Tuesday evening - with wind chills possibly dropping to near zero overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

We'll keep you all updated...

Jay

Late Evening Update

Well folks... this thing has just not really come together... Even though we're at night and it is snowing, it still appears the snow is not yet heavy enough to overcome the warm, wet ground. Snow will continue overnight but overall accumulations are expected to be generally on the light side.

This is the updated overnight/Saturday morning snowfall amount forecast...



Have a nice weekend all.

Jay

Friday evening update...

Gotta tell you... not real enthused about what I'm seeing on the radar scopes right now. Precip will no doubt fill in as the night wears on and as upper H5 vorth comes our way but.... Ground temps still pretty warm and what is falling is basically still melting !! New 00z ruc forecasting .1 to .2" for the rest of the overnight. I don't think all of that will accumulate in terms of snowcover. Likely will still see some melting / compaction as night wears on. Folks, I think I'm going to be cutting back snow amounts quite a bit here unless I see some rapid changes on the radar.

keep you updated

Jay

Friday Morning Update...

Not much has changed from last night's update. A cold rain is expected today but will gradually change over to snow this afternoon and evening from north to south across our region. At 9:30am EST Bloomington, IN was reporting 1 mile and light snow, Cincinnati, OH was reporting a mix.
Colder air should continue to get pulled into the region as the day and evening hours wear on. Latest 12 RUC soundings suggest a change to wet snow in the metro between 21 and 00z (4 to 7pm) - of course earlier to the north - later to the south.


Wet snow expected to become dominant p-type tonight and this is when a bulk of the accumulations will occur (the exception being our northern counties due to the change over occurring earlier).


A quick glance at the new 12z NAM qpf's suggests our going forecast still looks pretty good for now.

Quick look at next week's system... like we talked sbout yesterday... more and more of the data coming in is suggesting more of a phasing occurring between the northern and southern stream with this system. This would suggest a stronger and slower system. Thsi is also telling me that the warmer solution is a difinite trend. May still start as snow - but it looks to change to rain - then back over to snow (flurries) as it ends. There's even a chance that this will be a mainly rain event for a good chunk of the area with just a few flurries on the back side in the colder air. We'll see what the 12z data suite comes in with...

Jay

Thursday night update...

Hi Folks...

After the cold rain tonight into Friday, we will see a gradual change to snow. The change should occur from north to south beginning Friday afternoon to the north of Louisville, across the metro in the early evening, and areas south Friday night. New GFS is a few hours later with the change across the board and that's why it's snow totals are a bit less than the NAM's. System is pretty strong and as the 2nd upper vort / speed max enters the region - which effectively causes the H7 and H5 systems to close and intensify pretty much right over us, I am leaning towards a faster change over to snow due to the combined dynamic cooling and low level CAA that takes place later on Friday.
Of course that exact time of the change over will determine just how much snow falls but it still certainly appears the heaviest snowfall will be north/northeast of Louisville - with the lesser amounts the farther south you go.

Check out the latest snowfall forecast map which is basically for the late Friday - Friday night - into Saturday morning time frame.



System is still evolving some so the snow amount forecast could still change some and of course I'll have another update for you Friday morning.

Have a great night all..
Jay

Thursday morning Update

Active weather pattern to remain the next 5 to 7 days... Several disturbances will be passing through the region bringing us periodic bouts of precipitation including rain... snow... and a mix of the two.
Two distinct systems will affect the Ohio Valley. The first beginning tonight and continuing through Saturday morning. The second... early next week during the Monday night through Tuesday time frame.

The first system will bring us a a mix of precip. Dry weather expected through today (Thursday) including the evening commute. A cold rain is expected to gradually spread from southwest to northeast across the region this evening. Fcst soundings suggest mainly a rain event for much of our area - although there could be a mix at the onset for the areas north / northeast of Louisville. This cold rain scenario will continue through Friday with the rain expected to taper some later in the day as the lead H5 disturbance moves east of the region. Some colder air will be pulled south behind this first disturbance Friday night. A secondary H5 speedmax/vort will rotate through the upper trough over the area Friday night enhancing the overall atmospheric lift resulting in another round of precipitation. We are expecting this second waave of precip to gradually change to snow from north to south Friday night. Once the changeover occurs, model qpf guidance suggesting in the neighborhood of .1 to .2". This snow will likely initially be falling at temps at or above freezing so some melting will occur and most of the accums will likely be confined to the grassy areas. It looks like a dusting to 2 inches could occur Friday overnight with this system - with the better chances for the 2 inch amounts across southern Indiana where overall temp profile will be a bit colder.

Then comes Sunday !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Colts: 34, Saints: 31. Should be a great game !

Early next week, the next disturbance from the west begins affecting us. Still some disagreement as to the amount of cold air that will be in place throughout the event. GFS going back and forth on the amount of phasing that will take place. The more phasing... the deeper the system - the more the precip generated - but also the warmer the air that will be pulled north into the Ohio Valley. Some of the other models are showing less phasing and as a result lighter precip but also colder air through the event. Certainly looks like snow will move in later Monday / Monday night - with a chance for a changeover to rain on Tuedsay (especially if the 00z run to last night's GFS has the handle) ... then back to snow Tuesday night behind the system as colder air is pulled back in. This second system has got some potential to be a decent storm (snow maker) for the area. Still a few things in flux but just know that there will certainly be another shot at some wintry weather early next week.

We'll keep you updated...
Jay

It's Groundhog Day !

Happy groundhog day all... you've probably already heard... but if not, Phil saw his shadow. Legend has it - 6 more weeks of winter.

The next several days looks pretty nice around here - all things considered. Watching our next system for Thursday night into Friday/Friday night.

Upper trough to sharpen and slow as several vort maxes travel through the trough. Moisture will be quite plentiful with this system. Due to the sharpening/deepening of the system over/near the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic - a prolonged period of precip is expected.

At this time, it appears it will be a cold rain event Thursday night into Friday, with rain/snow for areas north of Louisville. Friday night should see a transition to all snow as the upper trough amplifies - and pulls colder air into the system. Got a Q from Jacob earlier about the chances for ice with this system ...??? At this time I don't think so. It looks like more a straight changeover situation.

Early indications all point to the possibility of some accumulations during this time period... of course as you all know it's real early in the "game" but we'll watch it close for you.

Jay

Monday Morning Update...

GM all... Nice weekend across the area. Beautiful Saturday morning !! Well the next few days will feature milder temperatures and fairly quiet weather. The snow that's out there will pretty much be gone by later in the week.

Watching another system for Friday into Saturday. Looks pretty unorganized as it shifts through our region and really doesn't get its act together until it gets closer to the Atlantic seaboard. But We'll keep an eye on it.

At this time it looks like it'll be a rain to snow scenario - with the better chances for anything significant occurring east of the I-65 corridor (and perhaps even along and east of the I-75 corridor.

Well watch it close and update as we get closer to the event. Enjoy the next few "quiet" days. I think we all need some time to sit back and take a breath.

Jay