Some Light Snow This Afternoon, Cold Pattern Breaking Down

A fast moving clipper type system will bring some patchy light snow and flurries to the region later today and into the evening. Not much moisture to work with, possitive tilt to upper system, and its fast movement all mean NOT much snow with this one. Model QPF fcsts spit out just a few hundreths across the region. Accumulations look very light all locations with everybody coming in at less than 1/2 inch of snow - at best !!

Little bubble of Canadian high pressure builds into the area for later tonight through Tuesday night behind the afore mentioned clipper system. Temps will stay cold through this period but then a major change will take place.

The upper pattern / block that brought us the extended period of cold weather (Dec. & early Jan.) is breaking down. The Pacific jet will become the dominant player for the next 2 weeks - at least, as the polar jet retreats well north. The southern stream will remain quite active but with an absence of a cold air source, there will be little chances for wintry weather across out "neck of the woods". As a matter of fact, the progged upcoming 2 week pattern is almost resembling what it did in late November / early December, i.e. large trough near Alaska, with a stronger jet on the south side of this trough. The flow then splits in the eastern Pacific - with the polar branch running well north, and the southern branch across the lower 48 and quite active. The main stormtrack looks as if its going to shift back to our west across the middle sections of the U.S. This would put us on the warm side of storm systems moving across the U.S. thereby keeping the better chances for the bigtime wintry weather well to our west and northwest.

In this type of of a pattern, precip would be at or above average but so would temperatures. So I guess it's safe to say that the January thaw is about ready to commence.

Big Q is... how long does the pattern last ?????? 2 weeks, 3 weeks, longer ??? Well most of the longer range models do have this pattern lasting well into late January.

We'll keep you posted.

Jay