Arctic air continues to be entrenched across the region and by the looks of things, it's going to get alot colder by the end of the work week and into the weekend as yet another arctic surge blasts south into the region. The difference with this late week surge from those of the past couple of weeks.... it looks like we will have several inches of snow on the ground and a decent snowcover likely all the way from Tennessee - north into Canada. In other words, the late week arctic blast ain't gonna moderate all that much. Folks, It is going to get very cold around here !
This latest cold blast will be on the heels of a very strong H5 shortwave driving in from the northwest and slowing down and intensifying as it does. This is the upper energy that will provide us with accumulating snowfall beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday. The track of thiss H5 system is still just north of Louisville - so the heaviest of the accumulations are still expected to reside north of our region but we are also going to get a decent snow out of this.
Check out the latest 12z output from the NAM...
Notice how the the H5 upper system / sfc system pass to our north. Always - always - always - the heaviest snows with a system dropping south of east occur along and north of the H5 vort max and if an upper H5 center / low is developing, the heaviest snowfall transitions closer to the H5 low and north of its track. This area to our north/northwest will also be
where the overall atmospheric column will be much colder for good dentritic crystal growth and easily a 15 to 20:1 ratio. 4 to 8 inches likely running across much of IA, northeast MO, central / northern IL, central / northern IN .
For us... we also will pick up some decent snowfall ! As the system deepens, widespread snow will develop in the WAA / upper lift zone associated with the LFQ of the jet max. Our snow will essentially be the "feeder" band for the bigger accumulations to the north where the deformation zone snowfall will set up. Snow will likely develop later Wednesday night and continue into Thursday. The best accumulating snow for us will likely occur during the 12z to 18z window Thursday AM (i.e. 7am to 1pm). The accumulating snow should rapidly end from west to east Thursday afternoon as the H7 dry slot overspreads the region. After the main snow and during Thursday night into Friday night , the combination of strong cold advection, low level moisture, and being on the cyclonic side of the upper jet will keep our area in the zone of flurries and snow showers with additional light accumulations occurring during this time with very high snow to liquid ratios. As far as the amounts are concerned, I still like a quick 1 to 3 inches during Thursday morning with an additional inch or so during the extended period of flurries and snow showers Thursday night into Friday night.
So by the time everything is said and done, 2 to 4 inches of snow seems likely across our area - with the greatest threat for the 4 inch amounts occurring over the northern sections of our viewing area.
So by the time everything is said and done, 2 to 4 inches of snow seems likely across our area - with the greatest threat for the 4 inch amounts occurring over the northern sections of our viewing area.
Still some time to look at things so we will for sure keep you up to date. On thing is for sure - it's going to be cold and wintry the next several days across our region.
Stay warm all,
Jay
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