Havn't had a chance to really disect the 12 NAM yet but WOW !!!! what a change from last night's 00z run. The big change may be due to the fact that the upper system last nifght was over Mexico where the actual sampling that's put into the models is relatively poor. Maybe now that the system is getting over an area where there's more and better sampling, the NAM is getting a better picture ?? Hard to say but that was a huge change in overall QPF amounts. When there's that big of a change in such a sshort time, no doubt, you always want to be cautious. I don't think we'll bite on the 12z NAM solution just yet but instead wait for some support from the other models. If the 12z GFS is still steady (and it seems to be the most consistant so far - except for timing), and we get further support from the Euro models then perhaps it'll be time to pounce. One thing is for sure... For us snow lovers that was a nice change to see in the NAM - - - getting more excited now...
another update later
Jay
1 comment:
I really like this forcast I was thinking the same things.
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