Look how close the qpf fields are from the last 2 (real) runs of the GFS (00z & 12Z). That is amazing stuff. Looks like start time will be late tomorrow or even wait until tomorrow evening. Looks like we get most of our snow with the associated def zone. Matt and I have been talking all morning and we really like .20 to .30 total QPF for the metro. More south, .40 to .70". Then a sharp drop off going north with less than .10" in our northern areas.
Ratios will come into play. Looking at extracted / bufkit data, max temp in the sounding during this event is around -4C to -5C then cool some towards the end. We think ratios will be on the order of about 12 or 13:1 at the first half of this event and gradually going closer to 15:1 towards the second half of the event. As a result, we have shifted the northern edge the 3 to 6" line farther north to include much of the metro (to make it easy... close to and south of the I-64 corridor. Even with higher QPFs south still kept much of the southern regions in the 3 to 6" band as ratios will be lower. Still like 6"+ for Bowling Green east to southern Adair county and points south.
More updates later
Jay
1 comment:
Bring on the snow!! Thanks for keeping us informed Jay! I'll be watching your blog for any updates.
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