Late morning Tuesday update

GM all, hope you didn't get stuck in the Tuesday morning mess.

There has been an overall southward adjustment to the models over the past 1 to 2 runs. Question is will this continue or was this just a model run hiccup ? I received an email from a friend of mine asking me about my thoughts for this storm and the latest model trends and this was my response to him...
"Well the GFS does have a cold bias and usually there's a correction (of some extent) to the north the closer we get to the event. Also, it does look as if the air will be cold enough in the column to beef up the ratios some. Quick and dirty Low/mid 20s at sfc would yield 12 or even 15 to 1.

One thing that does bother me is that the northward correction to the GFS has not shown signs of happening yet and we are within the 84 hour time window now. If anything there's been a slight southward adjustment to the overall QPF field !! Also the Canadian, which has been steady as a rock and giving us some substantial snow also showed a southward adjustment on its 00z run.

But not giving up the faith at all yet... Keep in mind, the upper short (our snow producer) is still out in the Pacific ocean - not a lot of raw weather data out there to feed into the models ! I think the overall track will become better defined once this upper energy is over the U.S. where raw weather data will be much more readily available. That should be tonight's 00z run or tomorrow's 12z run. "

Bottomline folks there's still the potential for some substantial snowfall around our region on Friday. Having said that, with the arctic origins for our cold air source and the dryness aspect associated with it, there will likely be a very rapid cutoff to the significant accumulating snowfall as you go north. In other words when it comes to talking about the track of this thing - a few miles either north or south will mean a the major difference between a whole bunch of snow or hardly anything at all ! This will be a tough one to forecast (which Ohio Valley storm isn't right ??) and it'll likely take another 24 to 36 hours or so before it really shows its hand.

keep you posted

Jay