Yesterday, we were thinking this dry air may be overcome early enough to give the metro (near I-64) around 3 inches... with higher amounts to the south (up to 6" in the far southern areas) and a sharp drop off in the amounts to the north.
Well last night for the 11pm newscast due to the fact the dry air intrusion was even drier than what the models were earlier suggesting, I downed the expected amounts to more in the 1 to 3" range for the metro, with the lower end of the 3 to 6" line pushed south to near a Hardinburg, KY to Springfield, KY line. We still like 6" + along and south of a Bowling Green to Columbia line but also the very sharp drop off in the expected snow amounts just north of the Ohio river.
Looking at radar trends this morning and still how dry things are way to the west of us in MO, It appears the "downed" forecast amounts - or pushing the bands farther south was justified.
As I mentioned, this is still going to be a substantial snow especially for areas south of Louisville but it looks like it going to be a fairly low impact event for the metro and points to the north simply due lighter expected lighter accumulations and also the time of day and week when the system will be impacting the area.
Let's not totally wave the white flag just yet (when it comes to significant accumulations for the metro) as we still have more data getting ready to come in as we speak, but.................
talk to you in a bit c,mon snow !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
tell me your thoughts... as you know this has beena tough one to call
5 comments:
Wow! what a let down
wow! what a let down
Don't give up just yet !! Let's see what the new stuff is saying. I havn't seen any new data yet, but maybe the upper system will be a bit stronger or come out a bit farther north to bring us better snowfall - at least alond and north of the Ohio river. No doubt, areas south are gonna get hit pretty hard..
I hope you keep up dating this blog I need some material to talk about then Belski's..thanks
PS, you need a direct link on wlky home page to this blog hard to find.
I agree with Jay, the oozNAM showing the moist air running into a wall of high pressure, cold and dry arctic air. Where that wall is will be the question, looks like the cold air is still strong on its southerly march, whereas the low and the moisture is struggling to overtake the cold air. I think 1 inch of powdery, cold snow for L'ville is about it, if we are lucky. However, I have seen lows that tend to track more northerly as they reach the eastern seaboard, and the intellicast shows a lot of moisture on the N and NW side of the low. Is it possible that we could have some continued accumulations from light wrapp-around with this system? Or does the cold air really squash that development?
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