Well from about 36 hours of flurries, I've picked up an additional 1/2 inch of snow. This stuff has got to be 25 or 30:1. Man is it fluffy ! Flurries will continue on occasion through tonight as we remain saturated in the lowest layers with temperatures still capable of ice crystal generation. The flurries the next 12 to 18 hours should be much lighter and intermittant though as those cloud temperatures are getting on the lower threshold for generating icy crystals.
Next event is yet another "clipper" type system for Monday. Although this one is much weaker than the one that came through here last Thursday. Model guidance is spittting out just a few hundreths at best. Looks like some light snow with the upper level vort/trough later Monday and Monday night (less than 1 inch).
We then warm up for Wednesday and Thursday and the melt down will commence.
I won't spend a lot of time on this but I have to say the 06z run of the GFS was very interesting for next weekend. Check out the large southern trough and associated sfc system to our south !! More importantly, the 06z run of the GFS has a much stronger H5 wave moving across southeast Canada and this will be key as to what type of precip we receive from this southern system. If this verifies, this would mean a stronger push to the arctic air back south into the U.S. - hence the 1044mb high the GFS has pushing into the Great Lakes region. Could this mean a potential winter storm / ice event ??? Maybe but remember this was a off hour run of the GFS (I don't like off-hour runs as they tend to flip-flop quite a bit), and-well, it is the GFS afterall and we all know how the GFS changes from run to run especially out past 84 hours. Buuuutttttt it is something to watch.
have a good Saturday all
Jay
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