Good morning all... Having a couple of days off from work but still wanted to post about what is looking pretty interesting for the weekend and early next week.
It does not look like any MAJOR winter storms on the way for the next 7 to 10 days but the prospects for a little snow to possibly whiten the ground in time for the Christmas holiday are looking up.
As for the next couple of days, a little bubble of Arctic high pressure will continue to build in behind a cold fropa. Temperatures will no doubt be chilly the next few days (man-o-man those 60s sure felt great yesterday !)
Looking out, the upper flow really becomes quite amplified across the region as blocking sets up across areas to our northeast. This will force any shortwaves moving in from the western U.S. to maintain a southerly track. One of those shortwaves will be moving through the flow on Saturday. As a matter of fact, this system is forecast to take on a negative tilt later Saturday into Sunday as it passes to our south and southeast. This will cause the system to explode near the eastern seaboard - and it COULD become the first major winter storm for the bigger cities of the northeast.
For us, it looks like some light snow (which may actually start as rain) will develop on Saturday as the afore mentioned system undergoes deepening to our east/southeast. latest 00z ECMWF is spitting out .1 to .2" liquid. Certainly not a big storm but perhaps enough to whiten the ground.
As upper level low pressure develops to our north next Monday and sags south across the Ohio Valley next Tuesday (as forecast by the ECM), this will reinforce the cold air across the region and keep us in a zone of flurries and snow showers.
If this upper flow forecast does occur, it would be quite wintry around here next week with the zone of flurries and snow showers over us for 2 to 3 days - with the possibility for more light accumulations.
Should be fun to see how things pan out... C'mon snow !!
Talk to you later,
Jay
2 comments:
Hi Jay, hope things are well with you and your family. Interesting weather headed our way it appears over the next several days leading up to Christmas. I was hoping you would give me your thoughts on a couple of issues. One, do you think or does it appear that the El Nino pattern is beginning to break down as you had predicted on your Wintercast blog? Two and more importantly the GFS model seems to be hinting at a storm around Christmas...your thoughts please? I noticed the pattern after Christmas appears to be rather active as well.....now I know the models can change from run to run as the OOZ to 6Z to 12Z GFS did today....again.....just would like your thoughts on the overall pattern and if it is conducive for a nice winter storm? Keep up the good work as you are the best in the area.....
jeremy from crandall, In
Hey buddy, thanks for the nice wishes ... right back at you. El nino... last I really checked into it, the el nino was still quite impressive. Latest forecast guidance was actually keeping the el nino around now well into February and even March. Bottom line, it's very possible this thing will be around all winter. GFS... I know, I know... this thing can drive you crazy ! Rain one model run, then cold and heavy snow on the run just 6 hours later ! UGGGHHHHHHH !! So let's break it down meteorologically... Looks pretty cold around here after this weekend's little system. There is a huge block up in Greenland and it's not expected to weaken much through Christmas week. Essentially what this will do is force storm systems to take the southern route across the U.S. This would also keep the cold air either over our area or close to us anyway. Bottom line, I would say looking at the block that is forecast to stick around by many of the medium range models, the chances for a decent wintry event for the Ohio Valley are increasing. Again the key will be the placement of the block and what it means for the exact tracks moving in the southern stream. Should be interesting! see ya Jeremy
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