A Quiet Week Ahead... Christmas Week ???

Hello all, hope your weekend was a good one. A quiet week on the way. I won't spend a lot of time on it as the overall flow is generally zonal in nature. Quick movinh system producing snow in the upper midwest/Great Lakes area will drag a front through here. Temperatures will get chilly the next few days but nothing real cold for uss as PJ remains well to the north.

The pattern beyond this period will become increasingly amplified as the MRM (medium range models) are forecasting a block to form to our northeast. A large block (closed high) forms over Greenland, with an upper level closed low developing to its southwest and then the whole pattern eventually takes on a REX block configuration by next week. Check out ECMWF H5 pattern...

By T216 and T240, a very blocky pattern is forecast to develop. Shortwave energy coming of the Pacific in the southern stream will be forced south of the northeast REX block. The big question is the cold air. Will it be deep enough to support a major winter event across our area ?

That remains to be seen ! I think it really depends on the exact placement and strength of the developing Omega block over Alaska. If this block actually develops (with the intensity) where the model says it will, then the amount of cold air needed for a major winter event may be in serios jeopardy. The main reason why is the east side (eastern trough) of the block would set up over southwest Canada/Pac. Northwest. This would in turn cause rising heights and ridging (to some extent) downstream. Notice how the overall H5 flow is forecast to go from a northerly component to more of a zonal flow in just 24 hours ! If this were to actually happen then the deep cold air may be too far north of our region to give us a decent sized or big winter event. This northwest pattern looks similar to what happened just last week -the pattern that produced the blizzard across the Plains / Western Lakes. Am I saying that there's no chance for a winter event here ?? Absolutely not! As a matter of fact the blocking (-NAO) occurring in the northeast is a great sign. The big Q is what really happens with the forecast block/amplified flow to our northwest?? Time will certainly tell . Drop me a line with your thoughts. This should be fun to see how thing unfold. I'll be very honest with you... I would love to see some snow for Christmas - I think most of us would !

See ya gang.

Jay