Fast moving H5 vort/shortwave provided just enough lift to bring us some light snow a drizzle this morning. Few slick spots on the bridges and overpasses but conditions improving now.
Next big storm is currently developing in the Rockies. This one means business !! H5 energy and will move across the Central Plains northeast to the Upper Midwest. As the energy takes on a negative tilt, the surface low will undergo rapid deepening and bomb out across the Great Lakes region Wednesday under strong divergent flow aloft.
If you want big snow.... you'll heve to travel 300 to 500 miles to our northwest ! A large zone of over a foot of snow will likely occur from northern Kansas to near the Omaha-K.C. corridor northeast across Iowa into N.W Illinois, southern Minn., southern Wisconsin, into Michigan. This area is going to get hammered !! Blizzard / near blizzard conditions will develop Tuesday night and continue Wednesday - with the worst conditions (i.e. travel could easily (and probably will) be shut down !) across southern Minn., Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan.
06Z Mon GFS snow chart
For us.... Mainly a rain producer !! Areas of rain will likely develop (heaviest southern regions) during the day Tuesday and continue Tuesday evening. Even some thunder will be possible given progged NAM LI's on the order of -2 by Tuesday midnight or so. Strong H7 dry intrusion will shut off the rain later Tuesday night. Cold front sweeps through allowing arctic air to spill into the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday. Thermal profiles suggest flurries will be possible later Wednesday afternoon as H85 temps drop to near -12c with 90% (or better) saturation. In addition, winds of 15 to 30 mph (Gusts to 35) will be likely later Tuesday night into Wednesday as the afore mentioned system really ramps up to our northwest.
Cold weather for Thursday... lower 30s for highs.
Looking ahead, pattern looks to stay active. PV across most of Canada (with 3 distinct centers) kind of "locked" in place due to the blocking pattern occurring near Alaska (Omega Block). Coldest of the air will stay to our north from near and especially north of the Polar jet - but it's not that far away !! In addition, Sub-tropical jet will remain very active as numerous shorts eject out of the closed system off the west coast of the U.S. These system will move rapidly east providing for occasional bouts of precip. And when phasing of the 2 streams can occur, strong storm systems will result.
It looks like one fast moving shortwave will bring us a chance for mainly light precip (possibly all snow) in the later Friday / early Saturday timeframe. Another system next week during Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be much stronger as phasing of the streams may again occur. If this happens and the stronger system results, it will likely be another rain producer for us with the big snows again staying to our northwest. As always, we'll watch it cloose and keep you updated.
Jay
2 comments:
Hey Jay, People are really playing up the winds with this storm. Are we looking at a wind storm type of situation late Tuesday night and Wednesday?
Happy Holidays!
Hi John, happy holidays to you and your family as well ! Yep, looks like the winds are gonna be crankin' with this one especially late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will be 40 to 60mph just off the surface and coupled (aligned in the same direction) so mixing will easily occur. This alone should produce 25 to 35 sustained at the surface and higher gusts of 40 to 45. One thing I am watching is the possibiity for a few breaks in the clouds Wednesday morning... If this happens, mixing will increase likely sending wind gusts near 50 or so. Thanks for the note
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