An Active Pattern To Say The Least, Colder And Some Snow

Large changes are happening in the upper atmospheric flow. As a huge ridge/closed high/block forms over Alaska, a large downstream trough will form over the U.S. Take a look at the H5 pattern / prog by later Thursday... That's big stuff !!

As this pattern forms, a large and intense storm system will take shape across the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday. This will occur as a southern piece of jet energy phases with a northern stream shortwave.

The sfc low is expected to track from the Lower Mississippi Valley - northeast across the Ohio Valley - anywhere from central Ky to Far eastern Ky. Decent track for snow - lovers (and I'm one of them) but it looks to me that the low-level temp profile is going to be too warm for a big snow event for us. Most if not all the models bring the H85 low right on top of us. Gang, that's not good if you want a big snow with this. Looking at the H5 patterns, and the time of year, and the fact that so far this season the track for these systems has been either over us or to our west, I think the best chances for a decent snow look to be from Missouri - northeast across Illinois, central and northern Indiana - and then northeast from there.

For us... it looks like rain develops Wednesday. As the sfc system passes through, strong CAA will take place changing the rain to some snow Wednesday night late. However, by the time the change-over takes place most of the deep moisture will already be gone or shifting rapidly to the northeast. So little or no accumulation expected with the main system during this time frame.

Beyond this and as the upper level pattern continues to evolve, very cold air will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley. Check out the H85 temps by 18z Thursday !!!

With nearly saturation levels expected in the low layers and temps progged to be this cold - no problem generating ice crystals. As a result, flurries and snow showers look to be a good bet during Thursday into Thursday evening.

So, bottomline... A cold blast on the way by Thursday. Large storm system to bring us a cold rain starting Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Rain expected to change to snow with little or no accumulation expected at this time. (best big snow accumulations look to be west and northwest). Much colder Thursday with occasional flurries and snow showers.

We'll keep you posted.

Jay

Jay

Rain & Cooler Temperatures....

The mild and dry conditions that have graced our region pretty much all of this November so far will be interrupted by a very slow moving storm system. This system is basically cutoff from the main jet stream and as a result, will not move much through late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Occasional light rain and cooler temperatures are in store Tuesday and Wednesday with a break in the rain chances expected for Thursday and Friday.

We'll keep you updated...

Jay

Mild November Weather To Continue...

After a very chilly Friday morning with widespread frossty conditions and temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s, a big warming trend is on the way for later this afternoon and this weekend.

High pressure at the surface will continue to move east of our area providing us with a return flow set-up and high preessure in the upper-atmosphere will continue to build northeast from Texas providing us with lots of sunshine by day and clear skies at night.

Temps aloft will continue to warm and mixing of the atmosphere will become deeper over the next 3 afternoons so the gradual warm-up will continue. We should see the lower 60s this afternoon... upper 60s to near 70s tomorrow, and lower 70s on Sunday.

The next system to affect our area will come Tuesday of next week but the rain chances with this thing really look to be dwindling and here's why....

1. The southwestern H5 energy heading in our direction will likely weaken substantially as it moves into the mean upper ridge that's currently building into our region.


2. There's a tropical system down over Honduras (TD Ida). This system is expected to reemerge into the NW caribbean sea the next 12 to 24 hours and then move slowly north. As this system moves north, the flow across the Gulf of Mexico will remain east to northeast. In other words - no moisture return for us as the Gulf will be effectively shut down.

So....... now it looks like NOT much of a rain chance for the Ohio Valley early next week.

A cold front will slip through here during this same time period due to an H5 short in the northern stream. Temps will cool off a little bit but not much and not for long.

Check out the extended ECM charts.....














West coast trough / east coast ridge.
Bottom line, this mild November pattern is here for the next 10 to 14 days at least !!

Have a great weekend all and enjoy the weather.
Jay

A Great Autumn Stretch Of Weather

No doubt, this beautiful Autumn weather will continue the next 5 days or so as a very benign weather pattern continues for for our area. The trough across the eastern U.S. will give way to rising heights and upper level ridging. This will ensure beautiful Autumn weather across all of our area into and through the weekend.
















Surface winds will also gradually shift around to more of a southerly direction and as temps warm aloft and mixing becomes a bit deeper, temperatures will continuee a warming trend with reading very close to the 70 degree mark for both days of the upcoming weekend.

Next rain chance will arrive Monday night and Tuesday of next week as southern stream energy lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley and phases with a northern stream shortwave. This energy will not only give us increasing rain chances, but also bring cooler temperatures back to the region next Tuesday.














The cool-down of early next week looks like is will NOT last as thhe overall upper-air pattern will be a very mild one for our area for early to mid-November. Check out the 8 to 10 day !!















Very strong Pacific jet means NO western ridging and thereby NO extended/excessive periods of cold air for the Ohio Valley. Overall the 8 to 10 day is suggesting a mean western trough and eastern ridge... i.e. warm November weather to continue.

Have a great day...


Jay