Well Autumn is here and that typically means big temperature changes from time to time and quite often, those big temperature changes are brought about by intense Autumn storm systems. Guess what... one of the systems is on the way over the next 24 to 48 hours.
As for tonight... WAA (warm air advection) showers will be possible from time to time - nothing heavy or widespread though.
For Friday the main WAA zone and associated lift pushes well north of our region. The main upper level storm system as well as the cold front will remain well west. That simply means our region will be in the relatively quiet part of this storm system. The LLJ (low level jet) will be cranking pretty good across our area later tonight and tomorrow so winds will increase from the southeast and south but with H9 and H85 temps very warm, that should translate easily to high temps in the mid/upper 70s - and if (if) we get enough sun... a few 80s may be sprinkled in !!
Deeper moisture will no doubt invade our region Friday evening and as a result rain chances will go sky high across our area. It looks to me that most (if not all) the precip for Friday night will be post frontal in nature so even though some thunder may be mixed in with elevated pockets of CAPE, no severe weather is expected.
I've seen forecasts from all (ALL) the other outlets in town talking about rain (and heavy rain with at least 1 of the others stations saying 2 to 4 inches of rain and flooding) on Saturday. I don't buy into this scenario as this is a GFS solution and this model has been ALL over the place with this storm. And even if it did verify, thunderstorm activity south of the Ohio Valley would likely "gobble up" and block much of the deep tropical moisture - thereby making the heavy and flooding rain story quite inplausible for our area.
We like (and have liked all along) the faster and weaker southern energy that the ETA and ECMWF have been advertising.
So bottom line... a few showers scattered about the region tonight - especially N.W. areas. Friday: partly sunny breezy and very warm - 75 to 80 across our region. Friday night: Rain develops with even some thunder possible with temperatures turning colder. NO flooding or Severe weather expected. Rain diminishes late Friday night or Saturday morning with drier, breezy, and cooler conditions for Saturday afternoon and the Halloween festivities Saturday evening.
We'll see what happens !! In the meantime, have a great Friday and weekend and as always, have a very happy and safe Halloween,
Jay
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment