http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=27330&source=0
Going forward, looks quiet through Wednesday morning. A strong H5 shortwave will be progressing eastward across the northern Plains towards the upper Midwest and Western Lakes states during the Tuesday night through Wednesday night time frame. There will be a warm frontal passage on Wednesday morning but at this time it appears the greatest threat for convection with this front will occur to our north and west where a 70kt low level jet will likely be feeding a large ongoing severe MCS across northern MO, southern IA, and northern IL. Most (if not all) of this WAA precip will slide just to our north late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning - although we will have to watch how far south the outflow boundary from this MCS progresses.
The associated cold front will plow east across the this same region Wednesday and through our area late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This system will likely produce another round severe weather.
Thunderstorms are expected to form along and just ahead of the cold front on Wednesday to our northwest across northern IN, IL, eastern IA, MO, southeastern KS, into OK. These storms will be developing in a strongly sheared enviroment. CAPE, helicity, and bulk shear values all suggest a fairly high threat for severe storms with this system - including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The latest model guidance is suggesting that these storms will slowly sag southeast into our area later Wednesday night into Thursday. Shear values will stay quite high but instability will be weakening as the storms moves into our area. At this time, there's still a chance for a few of these storms to be severe but the more widespread severe looks as if it will be farther to our north and west. SPC's day 3 looks really good to me at this time and of course we'll watch it real close for you.
have a great day,
Jay
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