Hello folks...
just going to update the situation for tomorrow Wednesday.
SPC has us in a slight risk... I think that will go to a moderate pretty easily perhaps even a high for some areas of the Ohio Valley - close but especially just east of Louisville.
Showers and storm will ramp up overnight tonight on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. This activity will clear the region fairly quickly Wednesday morning leaving us with partial clearing and allowing sfc temps to warm into the upper 60s / low 70s.
As the next very intense pocket of H5 energy moves towards the area, this will lead to very strong wind fields in the atmosphere, continued moisture advection, as well as CAA aloft giving rise to increasing CAPE values across the viewing area by late morning.
Line of showers and storms will likely develop or reintensify along pre-frontal trough axis across SW Indiana into W. Ky by mid morning. This line will race (and I mean race) east across the viewing area at speeds of 50 to 70 mph !! and be totally clear of our viewing area by mid afternoon tomorrow.
So looking at the dynamics, helicities (0 to 1 and 0 to 3k off the charts), frontal forcing etc... severe weather does look likely across the viewing area from late morning to mid afternoon. SPC will probably go tornado watches for our area. At this time... severe mode looks like damaging straight lined winds and also isolated quick hitting tornado spin ups on any bowing segments that will form.
Outside the thunderstorm activity, winds will be very strong in their own right as low level mixing both ahead and behind the convective line could create non-thunderstorm winds of 30 to 50 mph with gusts to 60 !!
If these winds do mix down and materialize... here we go again, any loose limbs still in the trees will likely come down causing some power outage problems again... seems we can't catch a break !
we'll keep you updated
Jay
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2 comments:
"...can't catch a break"...
Very cute,Jay. I 'caught' a broken collarbone last Wed. evening due to slipping on mud left behind by the ice storm..ha-ha! I couldn't do that while the ice was still on, I had to take a more dramatic approach...
In all seriousness, though. Do you have an approximate time on when this squall line is due thru Bardstown? It's taking me around 2 hours now to just roll out of bed and get myself thru my usual 40 minute 'morning routine'-I'm moving so slowly, I want to be sure I am ahead of the storms far as seeking shelter, etc...
Hi Debbie....
I hear ya !! looks like the line will pass through early afternoon. It's looking less likely now for a svr outbreak - that's great !! It still looks like the winds could blow pretty strong though and especially later this afternoon. Gusts of 50mph + are still possible especially if the sun breaks out for a couple of hours behind the showers.
Hope you're feeling better and take care
Jay
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