Still Some Severe Threat... Gusty Non-Tstorm Winds But No Ike

Already getting some issues of power outages around the region... few a far between but they are occurring. Even my kid's school was delayed this morning because of a power outage.

SPC really seems to be doing a good job with this system... They still have us in a slight risk for today. There is a ton of wind energy out there (shear) but not much in the way of instability - let's hope this trend continues.

Latest short range guidance of the RUC actually does increase instability some this afternoon from about the I-65 corridor and points east. So what is a narrow band of showers right now to our west, may intensify some with a few thunderstorms mixing in later today as the line approaches this relatively more unstable air mass. So bottom line, there's still a chance that a few storms may form along the line which will be capable of mixing down some stronger winds aloft but the chances for a widespread severe weather outbreak are diminishing.

Let's talk about the high wind warning that NWS has issued for the area real quick. Winds in the lowest 1 km are still 50 to 70 kts !!! Serious wind just off the deck ! Question is can we mix that stuff down to the ground. First off this is NO Ike !!! As I mentioned above, we could see some mixing down of these higher winds in any storms that form, but also we may have a better chance of seeing high winds for several hours behind the convective line - and especially if clearing skies and some sunshine occurs later today. The dry slot of this strong storm system is progged to rotate rapidly through the region later today and right behind the pre frontal trough. After whatever kind of convective line moves through, low level winds will veer to more of a southwest direction and become coupled. Skies should clear some as the dry slot and subsidence region rotates in. This should allow for strong low level mixing and gusty winds to reach the surface for several hours later this afternoon. It's still very possible to see winds on the order of 25 to 45 mph and gusts 50+ and especially later this afternoon.

Jay