Hello all,
just a quick one today... Wow, what a cold night ! Single digits in Louisville, -5 to -10F for areas northeast of Louisville where there is more snow on the ground.
Well, that was the final bitterly cold night ... at least for a while. The major temperature increase we've been talking about for a while now is getting ready to move in. See yesterday's post as all seems to be on track synoptically.
Still looks like a bump in the "warm weather road" on Sunday as a cold front sneaks in from the north. This is by no means an arctic boundary but there will likely be a band of lower clouds with this thing and some low level cold air. So even though temperatures will likely make the lower 60s on Saturday, Sunday's temperatures - although not cold, will be quite a bit cooler than Saturday's. May actually still see temps climb into the lower 50s Sunday AM then level off and drop back into the 40s in the afternoon as the front moves through. Of course it depends on frontal passage timing but just know, Saturday looks to be the "pick of the weekend".
This boundary retreats quickly north again allowing warmer air to flood back into our area by Monday afternoon as a weakening H5 short moves northeast across the Plains states toward the Great Lakes.
A more substantial H5 short / closed low will be developing across the west Monday and Tuesday of next week. This will keep H5 heights above average over our area and keep the warm air in place. Many ... if not all, of the medium range guidance is ejecting this wave towards the Ohio Valley / upper Midwest on Wednesday. This system will bring us our first chance at some severe storms next Wednesday / Wednesday night. Deep layered shear will be present with this system... only question is what will the instability be ? The Gulf will have been open for business for several days, so I have to believe at this point there will be adequate instability present for storms to fire. As always. we'll watch it close....
Finally... you cold and snow lover fans..... your winter season may not be over yet. It looks to me that this upcoming warmer pattern will be short-lived.
A very blocky pattern is expected to form across the northern hemisphere. Models are hinting at a west coast Rex-block / split flow and a closed high over eastern Greenland. This would likely put us back in the colder air later next week. As western energy from the pacific cuts under the closed high pressure system aloft, it will move east in the southern stream where it will likely meet up with colder air in place across the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Bottom line, we've got the potential for another winter weather event next weekend.
Get ready, looks like a very active 5 to 10 day period on the way.
Have a great day:
Jay
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