Well as you know the active weather pattern has returned to the region. Storm system passing just to our north will pull in milder air for the early afternoon. Temps should easily go 55 to 60 F across much of the region with 60 to 65 F south of Louisville. Drier air will be surging into the Ohio Valley in the mid-levels so this morning's shower activity will diminish. A few peaks of sun possible this afternoon as sfc winds become more coupled with winds aloft allowing for better mixing - which will also lead to gusty sfc winds this afternoon.
Cold front with this system sweeps the area tonight. Strong CAA sets up and with low layers saturated and within temp levels cold enough to generate ice crystals, flurries are likely later tonight into Thursday.
Next H5 short will be organizing to our northwest and will impact us later Friday night into Saturday. Folks as more and more data comes in, it's becoming very obvious that this short is going to track north of us - and that goes for the sfc system as well.
This is a "clipper" type system and if you recall from many of the past posts on this blog... when it comes to clipper systems - most if not all the snow is along and north of the sfc low track with the significant snow along and north of the H5 vort track. So.... to me ..... I don't think we're gonna get much from this. As a matter of fact, because of the strength of this clipper and the fact that the sfc low is deepening pretty good just to our north, it looks to me that this system will pull enough warm air into it in the low levels that rain looks to be the dominant p-type for Louisville and most of the viewing area as the main batch of precip rolls through. Once the system passes east, strong CAA will set up allowing for windy conditions, low clouds, and occasional flurries into Saturday afternoon.
The "big" snow with this system will occur across northern IL - east across northern OH.
Have a great day all,
Jay
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