Strong Winds Last Night... A Cold Weekend Ahead With Some Southern Snow.

Quick update all... GM !
Narrow, fast moving line of storms producing some strong winds for a short time this morning... Cold front is through - as you know... now get ready for a cold weekend.

Another couple of shorts will push towards the Ohio / TN valleys the next 24 hours. This energy will induce cyclogenesis on the boundary that came through earlier. This low will track well to our south. It appears the 12z models are coming into agreement with this system now. It looks like most of the precip with this system will be on the KY side of the Ohio River. Still looking at a cold rain developing late tonight / early tomorrow across TN and southern KY. Most of this precip / deeper moisture will be staying south of Louisville as a ton of dry air will be postioned just to our north.

The rain south of Louisville tomorrow should become a wintry mix of rain / sleet / even frzg rain (for a short time) then change to wet snow in the afternoon as evap and dynamic cooling work to bring the column below critical. So sensible weather wise...... across the southern regiona of the viewing area, we are expected a cold rain to develop late tonight / early Saturday - gradually transition to a wintry mix then to wet snow tomorrow afternoon. Slushy, grassy accumulations of 1/2 to 2 inches will be possible across the far southern counties of the viewing area - Green, Taylor, Adair, Hart, Marion etc... with more likely into eastern Kentucky.

For Louisville it doesn't look like much with this one as dry air may be too much to overcome to get anything substantial. Of course, we're still looking at the complete data set of the 12z runs so I'll update as I get more or if things change.

Have a great weekend and stay warm all !!

Jay

Some Rain... Warm Air... Few Storms... Oh, And Perhaps Some Snow ?

GM folks... active weather pattern continues to evolve across the Ohio Valley the next 3 to 4 days. First off, scattered showers this morning will likely give way to mostly cloudy but drier conditions for the afternoon and evening. Developing low pressure to our west is pulling a warm front north through the region this morning. As a result, scattered WAA showers have developed on this boundary. Later today, the front is expected to be well north taking the showers with it and leaving us in the warm sector. South winds should increase later today sending our temperatures well into the 60s once again.













Later tonight as the low pressure center pushes into the lower Great Lakes region, the associated cold front will move in the from the west. Showers and a few storms will accompany the front. I am NOT expecting severe weather with this system in our area as instability is minimal with this one - all the severe weather should stay well to our west and southwest. Rain should quickly end from west to east with frontal passage late tonight / early Friday followed by breezy and colder conditions for Friday afternoon.












The weekend system is still looking very interesting to me. A strong H5 short is progged to move southeast from the Missori valley towards the lower MS valley. Check out the latest H5 NAM charts.











Wow !! pretty impressive. Looking at ther latest thermal structure, it would indeed be cold enough for some snow in our area, only question is will the deep moisture return far enough north to give us some snow ?? 06z GFS would say "yes sir it will !!" 12z NAM would say "well... yes but mainly for areas south of Louisville". To me and looking at the strength of the dynamics... I'd say, yeah, parts of the viewing area (especially southern areas) will likely see some snow with this one on Saturday/ Saturday evening. A couple of things do bother me however... 1. The system is traveling southeast - these systems are typically not big precip producers. 2. There is a lead wave. Typically these lead waves are the ones that "use up the best moisture" leaving the trailing short with less fire power. 3. There is a lot (A LOT) of H7 dry air just to our north. This implies a sharp cutoff to the precip shield as you go north across the Ohio Valley. So if the models are suggesting we will get some snow from this... they better be dead on with there H5 track. If it goes a bit farther south than progged, that dry air will get here without question.
The one thing we do have going for us is the latest NAM is trending towards the 06z GFS, 00z UKMET and 00z ECMWF with its mass fields. It's still south of Louisville with its snowfall but it is trending north. As a result my confidence is going up to the fact that some snowfall is looking more and more likely in our region on Saturday especially south of Louisville. It looks like it'll be a wet snow so ratios won't be all that high.
Bottom line, if the stars above align and we get the snow over our region on Saturday - it won't be a huge snowfall but areas especially on the Kentucky side of the Ohio River could see several inches of wet snow.
I know, I know... there's still a lot of unanswered Q's with this weekend system but we'll know a lot more over the next 24 hours. Just know, the potential exists for some accumulating snow over parts of our area on the last day of February, 2009 !!

stay tuned all and as always, have a great day.

Jay

Warmer Weather On The Way !! So Is Some Rain.

GM all, taking a few vdays off from work but I still wanted to blog about the conditions some.



If you read yesterday's blog, all seems to be on track. Still watching a WAA pattern setting up across the area the next 24 to 36 hours or so. This pattern will be occurring ahead of a fast moving western shortwave that will induce cyclogenesis across the Plains. This low will track northeast towards the Great Lakes region by Thursday night. Moisture will be increasing during this period as a strengthening LLJ taps the Gulf especially on Thursday. Showers and storms should develop Wednesday night across areas of Missouri / Illinois on the nose of this LLJ where the WAA pattern will be maxed. This will also be occurring along and north of the sfc warm front. Most of this precip will slip to our northwest leaving us in the warm sector with breezy south winds and quite a few clouds for Thursday. Temperatures will warm nicely in this pattern with 50s on Wednesday and 60s on Thursday.


















As the entire system moves easterly, and the associated cold front / baroclinic zone moves closer, showers and thunderstorms will invade the area. This will be primarily Thursday night into Friday morning. Like yesterday... I still am NOT expecting severe weather with this system in our area.












Have a great day !



Jay

Warmer For The Week Ahead... Increasing Rain Chances Late Week.

Hello all, hope the weekend was a good one ! Really happy with how the weekend forecast worked out. Gotta be honest though - really getting tired of the cold weather and yes, I am a snow lover.

Well looking ahead, the pattern will stay fairly active and actually amplify some by week's end.

Okay then, in the short term high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through tomorrow (Tuesday). Overall, cold and below average temperatures will continue as well. A weak H5 vort lobe will pass through the Ohio Valley / TN Valley tomorrow and this will bring an increase in mid / high level moisture increasing the clouds some for Tuesday - but certainly no precip.

WAA in the wake the cold sfc high as well as rising heights will mean milder weather for Wednesday allowing temperatures to climb well into the 50s. Thursday, the upper pattern will start to become more active as a fast moving H5 shortwave induces cyclogenesis across the southern Plains. This low will track northeast across the mid MS valley towards the lower Lakes - west and north of us. Bottom line, this feature will pull in warmer air across the Ohio Valley along with increasing low level moisture. Temperatures will likely warm well in to the 60s on Thursday but rain chances will also really ramp up later in the day - but especially Thursday night. There could be some thunder as GFS bufkit is showing some elevated CAPE but I'm NOT expecting anything strong / severe with this system at this time.

The cold front will pass through later Thursday night / early Friday, rain will end but temperatures will once again take a tumble as cold high pressure once again starts nosing in from the north. We'll keep you posted ... Have a great day !

Jay

Some Wet Snow Tomorrow... Cold & Wintry Sunday... Stormy Next Week

Hello all, well it's looking like some busy times ahead for the Ohio Valley (as is often the case this time of year). Sevearl systems will affect us during the next week. The first arrives tomorrow (Saturday).

Saturday's system is a strong "clipper" type system that'll be passing north of us. There is a difference though with tomorrow's clipper from the majority of clippers that affect the Ohio Valley. Most clipper systems travel from northwest to southeast across the Ohio Valley. As a result of this movement, most (if not all) the decent precip (i.e. snow) is along and north of the sfc low track - with the best snows occurring along and north of the H5 system.

So let's look at tomorrow's system. the following maps are from the 12 Fri run of the NAM.

Folks, look how far north the H5 vort and sfc low are tracking !! At first glance you'd say "no way are we getting any snow" - and with "normal" clippers that would be correct ! Heck, sfc temps Saturday morning around here will go well into the 40s ! But this one is a bit different as far as its impacts are concerned for us. Look closer at the H5 charts again above especially the 30 & 36 hr panels. This system is bottoming out near Chicago ! In other words it is starting to track more northeasterly than the typical southeasterly movement that clippers usually have through the Ohio Valley. It's main jet streak is bottoming out and starting to shift to the eastern side of the H5 system - In other words, our area is getting on the RRQ of this upper streak providing us with good lift - and this is happening as the associated cold front in the low levels is passing through the region so we are getting strong low level CAA at this same period. Also, look at the additional energy on the back side of the trough. This second vort lobe is causing the entire system to slow some but is also inducing PVA (pos vort advection) across our region adding to the lift that the RRQ of the original jet streak is already providing and because of this secondary vort lobe, overunning moisture is occurring behind the cold front (i.e. over our region) resulting in a rapid increase to post frontal precipitation.

So.... sensible weather wise ..... light rain will likely develop across the area tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon. This rain however, will quickly change to wet snow and accumulate some - but mainly on grassy areas. At this time I like around 1 inch of wet snow (locally 2 inches in spots) for Saturday afternoon.

Cold air continues to spill into the Ohio Valley behind this system . Sunday looks to be a real cold day with temperatures just in the 20s to near 30 for a high with flurries and occasional snow showers continuing. Bottom line... a wintry weekend on the way.

Active weather pattern will continue next week especially for the Wednesday and Thursday time frame. A couple of systems will come at us again giving us milder weather but good rain chances, some which could be heavy mainly Thursday (including thunderstorms).

We'll keep you posted, in the meantime... have a great weeekend,

Jay

Accumulating Snow This Weekend ??? Don't Think So !

Well as you know the active weather pattern has returned to the region. Storm system passing just to our north will pull in milder air for the early afternoon. Temps should easily go 55 to 60 F across much of the region with 60 to 65 F south of Louisville. Drier air will be surging into the Ohio Valley in the mid-levels so this morning's shower activity will diminish. A few peaks of sun possible this afternoon as sfc winds become more coupled with winds aloft allowing for better mixing - which will also lead to gusty sfc winds this afternoon.

Cold front with this system sweeps the area tonight. Strong CAA sets up and with low layers saturated and within temp levels cold enough to generate ice crystals, flurries are likely later tonight into Thursday.

Next H5 short will be organizing to our northwest and will impact us later Friday night into Saturday. Folks as more and more data comes in, it's becoming very obvious that this short is going to track north of us - and that goes for the sfc system as well.


This is a "clipper" type system and if you recall from many of the past posts on this blog... when it comes to clipper systems - most if not all the snow is along and north of the sfc low track with the significant snow along and north of the H5 vort track. So.... to me ..... I don't think we're gonna get much from this. As a matter of fact, because of the strength of this clipper and the fact that the sfc low is deepening pretty good just to our north, it looks to me that this system will pull enough warm air into it in the low levels that rain looks to be the dominant p-type for Louisville and most of the viewing area as the main batch of precip rolls through. Once the system passes east, strong CAA will set up allowing for windy conditions, low clouds, and occasional flurries into Saturday afternoon.

The "big" snow with this system will occur across northern IL - east across northern OH.

Have a great day all,

Jay

Decent Early Week, Rain For The Middle, Colder with A Bit Of Snow Later On...

After a quiet weather pattern for the past several days, the weather will become more active as we progress through this work week. The western closed system will open up over the next 24 hours and start pushing east towards the Ohio Valley. At thei same time, northern stream energy will be pushing southeast. Phasing of the two streams is expected over the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. beginning Wednesday. The results of this phasing will be a large, deep eastern trough and very impressive H5 closed center over northeastern Ohio be late Thursday.

This is what it mean for us... Increasing clouds will occur Tuesday with showers developing Tuesday evening in the WAA zone of this system. Showers will become more widespread Tuesday night before the activity diminishes by midday Wednesday as associated cold frontal boundary sweeps the area Wednesday afternoon. Northern stream energy will dive down across the Ohio Valley later Wednesday night into Thursday as phasing between the two streams takes place. Strong CAA will result with also occasional flurries and snow showers along with temperatures holding in the 30s.

Have a great day all,

Jay

Still Some Severe Threat... Gusty Non-Tstorm Winds But No Ike

Already getting some issues of power outages around the region... few a far between but they are occurring. Even my kid's school was delayed this morning because of a power outage.

SPC really seems to be doing a good job with this system... They still have us in a slight risk for today. There is a ton of wind energy out there (shear) but not much in the way of instability - let's hope this trend continues.

Latest short range guidance of the RUC actually does increase instability some this afternoon from about the I-65 corridor and points east. So what is a narrow band of showers right now to our west, may intensify some with a few thunderstorms mixing in later today as the line approaches this relatively more unstable air mass. So bottom line, there's still a chance that a few storms may form along the line which will be capable of mixing down some stronger winds aloft but the chances for a widespread severe weather outbreak are diminishing.

Let's talk about the high wind warning that NWS has issued for the area real quick. Winds in the lowest 1 km are still 50 to 70 kts !!! Serious wind just off the deck ! Question is can we mix that stuff down to the ground. First off this is NO Ike !!! As I mentioned above, we could see some mixing down of these higher winds in any storms that form, but also we may have a better chance of seeing high winds for several hours behind the convective line - and especially if clearing skies and some sunshine occurs later today. The dry slot of this strong storm system is progged to rotate rapidly through the region later today and right behind the pre frontal trough. After whatever kind of convective line moves through, low level winds will veer to more of a southwest direction and become coupled. Skies should clear some as the dry slot and subsidence region rotates in. This should allow for strong low level mixing and gusty winds to reach the surface for several hours later this afternoon. It's still very possible to see winds on the order of 25 to 45 mph and gusts 50+ and especially later this afternoon.

Jay

Strong Winds... More Wind Damage... Severe Weather...

Hello folks...
just going to update the situation for tomorrow Wednesday.
SPC has us in a slight risk... I think that will go to a moderate pretty easily perhaps even a high for some areas of the Ohio Valley - close but especially just east of Louisville.

Showers and storm will ramp up overnight tonight on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. This activity will clear the region fairly quickly Wednesday morning leaving us with partial clearing and allowing sfc temps to warm into the upper 60s / low 70s.

As the next very intense pocket of H5 energy moves towards the area, this will lead to very strong wind fields in the atmosphere, continued moisture advection, as well as CAA aloft giving rise to increasing CAPE values across the viewing area by late morning.

Line of showers and storms will likely develop or reintensify along pre-frontal trough axis across SW Indiana into W. Ky by mid morning. This line will race (and I mean race) east across the viewing area at speeds of 50 to 70 mph !! and be totally clear of our viewing area by mid afternoon tomorrow.

So looking at the dynamics, helicities (0 to 1 and 0 to 3k off the charts), frontal forcing etc... severe weather does look likely across the viewing area from late morning to mid afternoon. SPC will probably go tornado watches for our area. At this time... severe mode looks like damaging straight lined winds and also isolated quick hitting tornado spin ups on any bowing segments that will form.

Outside the thunderstorm activity, winds will be very strong in their own right as low level mixing both ahead and behind the convective line could create non-thunderstorm winds of 30 to 50 mph with gusts to 60 !!

If these winds do mix down and materialize... here we go again, any loose limbs still in the trees will likely come down causing some power outage problems again... seems we can't catch a break !

we'll keep you updated

Jay

Mild Temperatures... Occasional Showers & Storms... Severe Wednesday ?

After a gorgeous weekend and a nice break from the cold weather it appears the weather pattern will become quite active over the next 3 days. I'm not talking cold and snow here, but I am talking about mild temperatures, showers, thunderstorms, and wind.


Okay then let's get into this... A large trough continues to dominate the western U.S. with a ridge across the east. Two strong disturbances will eject out of the trough and track to the east, northeast. The main dynamics with the first feature will stay well west - northwest of us. There is a slight risk for severe storms under the upper H5 system across the central Plains today including large hail, gusty winds, and even some tornadic activity if convection can become rooted in the boundary layer.














The trailing energy from this system will come close enough to us to bring us shower activity later tonight into tomorrow (Tuesday) morning with mild and mainly dry weather returning Tuesday afternoon.


Quiet conditions will prevail Tuesday evening but after midnight, showers and thunderstorms (mainly elevated) should rapidly develop and spread northeast across the Ohio Valley as the next strong H5 short ejects from the western trough. This H5 wave will enhance the LLJ which will increase from 60 to 75 kts. The strengthening low level convergence on the nose of the LLJ will result in strong vertical motion - showers and thunderstorms.














This batch of showers and storms will moves east, northeast quickly Wednesday morning. Then the next wave of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will arrive with the main H5 short energy and its associated cold front.

As the system approaches, the wind field will increase dramatically across the Ohio Valley with 0 to 6 k shear values anywhere from 50 to 80 kts from the Ohio Valley and points south.
















The prefrontal trough is expected to move through the regio between 18z and 21z Wednesday. This is where our best chance for severe weather will come from IF it happens at all.













As I said before, dynamics... great !! Lift... awesome !! What may be lacking is instability. Check out the latest NAM instability charts... Not much there !
















Having said that and at this time, I still think there's a chance we could see a fast moving narrow line of low topped convection do in part to the very strong low level forcing. This may be one of those situtations where there is little or no lightning but the just a narrow zone of very heavy showers embedded within a larger zone of more general rain. As this low topped convection moves through, it still looks to me that there will be the potential for strong straight lined winds and some wind damage - like we need more of that after Ike and then the ice storm. I don't see much of a threat at tornadic weather right now as most if not all the low topped convection will occur along the prefrontal trough in more of a squall line configuration. Of course, if instability were to increase... well that would be a different story as the convective mode would also be different and likely include some discrete cells ahead of the main forcing giving rise to tornadic activity. Again though, at this time I don't see that happening with the instablity now progged by the latest guidance. As always, we'll watch it close for any changes.















Weather History:













1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front erupted over eastern Texas late in the morning, and produced severe weather as they swept across the southeastern states. Early evening thunderstorms spawned a tornado which injured one person at Nat TX, and produced tennis balls size hail which caused more than half a million dollars damage around Shreveport LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Have a great day all,

Jay

The Weekend Is Here... So Is The Warm Air... Stormy Wednesday ??

Hi all,

CAR WASH WARNING In EFFECT !! Forecast really seems to be on track. See yesterday's and Wednesday's post for the detailed synoptic conditions as very little seems to be changing.

50s today, 60s tomorrow, 50s (falling into the 40s later in the day) on Sunday.... although Sunday may see some patchy light rain showers or drizzle in the morning as a cold front sags in from the north.

No doubt... Saturday is the pick of the weekend !!

Still looks like a very strong H5 short and it's sfc reflection will impact our area late day Wednesday / Wednesday evening. Very strong deep layered shear will be in place. Still some question as to how much instability this system will have to work with but at this time, I would think we are looking at a decent chance for strong / severe storms. Even if the instability is weak to modest, very strong low level forcing on the front should be more than adequate to produce a fast moving line of low-topped storms and with the strong shear / dynamics in place, these storms should become severe with damaging wind gusts and even some tornadoes with any discrete storms that can form ahead of the main line or with any bows that form within the line segments

We'll keep you updated...

Weather History: You snow lovers remember this one ??

A very unusual winter storm paralyzed the region in early February of 1998. The storm dumped up to two feet of snow across parts of northern and eastern Kentucky, and used moisture from the Atlantic Ocean rather than from the Gulf of Mexico to do it.In central Kentucky three people were killed and four injured. Several million dollars in damage was done as trees and power lines collapsed under the weight of the snow. Over the course of the four days Louisville was buried under 22.4 inches of snow, which is the all-time snowstorm record total for the city. Of that amount, a foot and a half fell on the 4th and 5th, resulting in a State of Emergency Declaration.
Around central Kentucky, snow depths at the end of the onslaught were over a foot, with a snowpack two feet deep reported at Liberty in Casey County.
At Louisville, February 4, 1998 still stands as the 5th snowiest single day on record, the snow depth of 18 inches on February 6, 1998, is the city's 2nd deepest snow depth on record, and February 1998 stands as Louisville's 4th snowiest month in history. In Lexington, unofficial reports of a snow fall of 11 inches on the 4th and a depth of 18 inches were received.

(Source: NWS Louisville)

Jay

Goodbye Snow (For Now)!!! Hello Warmth !!! Storm Chances Next Week ?

Hello all,
just a quick one today... Wow, what a cold night ! Single digits in Louisville, -5 to -10F for areas northeast of Louisville where there is more snow on the ground.
Well, that was the final bitterly cold night ... at least for a while. The major temperature increase we've been talking about for a while now is getting ready to move in. See yesterday's post as all seems to be on track synoptically.

Still looks like a bump in the "warm weather road" on Sunday as a cold front sneaks in from the north. This is by no means an arctic boundary but there will likely be a band of lower clouds with this thing and some low level cold air. So even though temperatures will likely make the lower 60s on Saturday, Sunday's temperatures - although not cold, will be quite a bit cooler than Saturday's. May actually still see temps climb into the lower 50s Sunday AM then level off and drop back into the 40s in the afternoon as the front moves through. Of course it depends on frontal passage timing but just know, Saturday looks to be the "pick of the weekend".

This boundary retreats quickly north again allowing warmer air to flood back into our area by Monday afternoon as a weakening H5 short moves northeast across the Plains states toward the Great Lakes.
A more substantial H5 short / closed low will be developing across the west Monday and Tuesday of next week. This will keep H5 heights above average over our area and keep the warm air in place. Many ... if not all, of the medium range guidance is ejecting this wave towards the Ohio Valley / upper Midwest on Wednesday. This system will bring us our first chance at some severe storms next Wednesday / Wednesday night. Deep layered shear will be present with this system... only question is what will the instability be ? The Gulf will have been open for business for several days, so I have to believe at this point there will be adequate instability present for storms to fire. As always. we'll watch it close....

Finally... you cold and snow lover fans..... your winter season may not be over yet. It looks to me that this upcoming warmer pattern will be short-lived.
A very blocky pattern is expected to form across the northern hemisphere. Models are hinting at a west coast Rex-block / split flow and a closed high over eastern Greenland. This would likely put us back in the colder air later next week. As western energy from the pacific cuts under the closed high pressure system aloft, it will move east in the southern stream where it will likely meet up with colder air in place across the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Bottom line, we've got the potential for another winter weather event next weekend.

Get ready, looks like a very active 5 to 10 day period on the way.

Have a great day:
Jay

From The Deep Freeze to Nearly Spring-Like

Get ready, some major temperature turnarounds are on the way for the Ohio Valley.

As for tonight through tomorrow... arctic high pressure at the surface will continue to work in. Temperatures will stay very cold through tomorrow for this time of year. Looks like another night (Wed night) with temps in the single digits with even a few folks north and northeast of Louisville - at or below zero.

Still a chance for a few flurries today as sounding are showing a fair amount of low level moisture and the air plenty cold for ice crystal generation. Clouds should fill in some this afternoon with a few flurries likely as we are still on the cyclonic side of the upper jet.

Let's talk warm up and what a huge warm up it 's going to be ! Upper cold weather pattern for eastern U.S. is about ready to get crushed...

The huge western ridge will get beaten down as major Pacific energy pushes on shore the next 24 hours. This initial energy will be followed by yet more Pac. energy so the bottom line - goodbye ridge and hello western trough.

Remember the ole' saying... "for any action, there is an equal and opposite reaction" ? This will hold true because as the trough develops out west that'll mean building heights over the east and that means a huge warm up !!!!

The arctic high will push east by later tomorrow and tomorrow night. A strong low level southwesterly flow will establish itself over the Ohio Valley with a major WAA pattern resulting.

Models showing signs of a sfc warm front developing / moving north of the Ohio river on Friday. Lots of sunshine and good mixing will mean much warmer temps. Mixing schemes support lower 50s on Friday / upper 50s / lower 60s on Saturday.

A little bump in the warmer road on Sunday as a front slips in from the north and cools us some but it should move quickly north of us again for Monday of next week and temperatures next Monday will be well into the 60s - perhaps even some areas flirting with the low 70s . Nice !!!!

Western trough energy will eject northeast into the Plains states early next week with decent rains for them and even a possible early season severe weather outbreak. For us, severe weather not expected with the first wave of ejecting energy - as the dynamics will be passing way too far to the north and west although a few showers / thunderstorms (depending on available instability) will occur Monday night into Tuesday AM.

There is another piece of strong energy positioned across the west on Tuesday... That one could...could, spice things up some for us for next Wednesday...

we'll watch it close, otherwise, enjoy the warm weather (after tomorrow)

Weather History:

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the Upper Ohio Valley to New England, with up to 12 inches reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Strong northerly winds in the Upper Midwest produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Jay

Wintry The Next Couple Days, Then A Major Warm Up

"Dynamic" snow getting ready to push out... "CAA and upper trough cyclonic curvature" snow getting ready to push in.

All is going to plan with this forecast so far... The upper H5 short is pulling through this morning... Good lift on the LFQ of the upper jet along with some low level WAA.

The sfc reflection will pass through later this morning and temps will steadily fall as a polar air mass builds in. Folks, don't kid yourself... this airmass is gonna be a cold one. Patchy light snow and flurries will continue across the area today, tonight, and tomorrow with easily up to an additional inch possible with this stuff. Also, the snow that does fall the next 30 hours or so - even though quite light in nature, will tens to pile up some because of the higher liquid/snow ratios.

Temps in the low levels progged to be from -12 to -17c (no problems with ice crystal growth here) and saturated --- this along with being on the cyclonic side of the upper jet will keep the snowflakes around on occasion.

We still like 1 to 3 inches from near Louisville and points north by the time all is said and done Wednesday evening. I think the better chances for the 3 inch amounts will occur across our northeastern areas. COLD... COLD Wednesday night... low level moisture should be clearing as upper jet axis shifts east. Arctic high presuure builds in... temperatures should easily fall into the lower single digits - both above and below zero !!

Big Warm up later this week as a major pattern change occurs... Very amplified pattern of west coast ridge / east coast trough will get the beaten down severely as major Pacific energy crashes ashore later this week. As a matter of fact, the western ridge will be replaced by a large and potent trough which means building heights and ridging in the east which also means a major warm up in temps for Friday - but especially the weekend. 50s and 60s look to be in order around here - I love winter but I gotta tell ya..... I can't wait for the warm up !!

Weaher History:

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather over the central Gulf coast states during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Alabama, including one which touched down north of Birmingham injuring fifteen people and causing nearly three million dollars damage. A tornado at Margaret injured eleven persons and caused a million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Stay warm all,

Jay

Another Snow Producer On The Way...

Well, all is getting back to normal (slowly) but what a pain this past week turned out to be... at least yesterday (Sunday) was nice. Mid 50s !!!!!! gotta love it after all we've been through. Man... really thought my AZ Cards were gonna do it... Oh well, at least I covered on my bet with my brother from Chicago.

Another big game tonight... Tell you what, the Lou Cards are no doubt a top 5 team but they have to finish !! that Saturday game vs West Virginia ????? a total tale of 2 different looking teams. If they play that way tonight vs Conn. , they are going down. Let's hope they keep the intensity as high as they did in the ist half of Saturday's game tonight!

Alright, weather now. Yep really happy with the forecast from last week's big winter storm as we were the only ones saying it was going to be primarily an ice storm with power outages going back to last Sunday night and Monday - way before anybody else even considered joining the game. Even though the forecast worked out great... it was really bittersweet simply because of how many people it (the winter storm) negatively impacted.

Okay on to the next system, upper H5 short will race southeast on the jet and cruise through the region late tonight and tomorrow. Both the GFS and NAM (as well as the NGM) have a sfc reflection with this one so it should be fairly energetic.

Movement of the H5 short places our area in the LFQ of the upper jet. Also with the models showing some low level development/reflection, the upward omegas should also be enhanced some by the low level WAA mainly late tonight into tomorrow morning. Good lift and moisture in the dentrite crystal layer suggests a period of decent snow for 2 to 4 hours - just before to just after the Tuesday morning commute. Once the system passes through, strong CAA sets up in the low levels. Models still showing quite a bit of moisture in the low levels when temps are progged to be -9 to -16c. Once again more than cold enough to keep flurries and patchy light snow around for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.
Accumulations look likely with this one... No not a huge storm but certainly enough to create hazardous travel and perhaps break out the shovels in spots. At this time, we like 1 to 3 inches across the northeast 2/3rds of the viewing area - including Louisville. I wouldn't even be a bit surprised to see some isolated 4 inch amounts northeast of Louisville - places like Madison, IN... Owenton, KY... Carrollton, KY etc... Lesser amounts will occur across the southwest third where up to 1 inch will be possible

We'll keep you updated and sorry for the lack of posts recently.... the storm hit me hard as well.

have a great day all,
Jay