A chilly Januray day setting up for the region... H9 temps only progged to be -9 to -10c ...Ouch. Mixing schemes will likely keep us in the lower 30s today. Also, little patch of H9 moisture progged to work in here later today - certainly cold enough for some ice crystals so a few flurries will be possible.
High pressure builds in tonight, it's gonna be a cold Thursday night as we decouple - light winds - and clear skies until late when a band of WAA high and mid clouds start moving in. this should allow for temperatures to fall back into the upper teens and low 20s area wide.
We will be inbetween systems through tomorrow as short wave ridging builds in. Actually, tomorrow looks like a decent day and probably like it may certainly be one of the nicer days we'll have for quite some time to come. Morning mid/high clouds will thin some for the afternoon and with decent WAA, we will go above average on the temps for your Friday - not bad !!
Next system - now in the northwest, will quickly move in. Clouds will thicken Friday night with rain developing late at night into Saturday morning. This will be a quick moving system though as the upper energy associated is a positive tilt open wave. Rain Saturday morning giving way to spotty drizzle in the afternoon and perhaps a late-day flurry. Bottom line - Saturday is NOT going to be a very nice day for any outdoor activities.
COLD AIR.......
Still on track and on the way for next week. Models are all finally catching onto the idea of a cold weather pattern developing, now the only problem is when exactly and just how cold will the air be. Models are having difficulty agreeing on which shortwave will actually be the one to really amplify the pattern. As a result, there are timing differences. The GFS has been the model of choice recently for the SHORT term - but NOT for the period in which we are talking about. This model has been all over the place - as it typically is when there is a pattern change taking place mainly due to its cold bias and truncation.
So.... I like the ECMWF as it has been the most consistant with its progs. It appears the cold air will come in several "chunks". The first arctic boundary will push through sometime late Monday night into the Tuesday time period. This air will be quite chilly but the "mother-load" will push into the Ohio Valley beginning Wednesday night behind a clipper type system that could bring us some snow on Wednesday. A 1050+mb high will build down into the region for Thursday sending h85 temps to -20c or even colder.... BRRRRRRRRR. That will likely translate to teens during the day and single digits at night, and if there's snow on the ground.... even colder.
Oh, and by the way... that won't be it for the cold air. Check out the extended (8 to 10 day) H5 ECM charts into next weekend. It looks like at least 2 more strong, arctic boundaries will move through the Ohio Valley as the west coast ridge / eastern trough really become locked in place.
WEATHER HISTORY:
1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage.
(Source: David Ludlum)
we'll keep you posted, in the meantime, have a great day all
Jay
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