A Temperature Roller Coaster Ride... An Ohio Valley Winter Storm Next Week ??

The wintry weather pattern that's been in place across the Ohio Valley the last 3 days or so (with occasional flurries, snow showers, and cold) will ease some the rest of the work week. I believe we were the only ones to be talking about light snowfall accumulations ever since last Friday morning as that was when we mentioned 1 to as much as 2 inches of snow with this pattern - really happy about that !!

Okay, so let's talk about the current and expected weather conditions. Large deep trough that has been carved out be a series of speed maxes (H5 short waves) remain in place across the eastern U.S. This trough will finally start weaken as heights begin rising over the region. This will be caused by a breakdown of the huge western ridge as strong pieces of energy crash into the western areas of the U.S. It looks as if the models are suggesting 2 distinct streams will take shape over the next week or so - the polar stream which will be located across the northern U.S. and the southern stream located across the southern 3rd of the U.S.

As heights rise, this will set up a WAA pattern across the central and eastern U.S. Warmer temperatures will return for 2 days - (basically Thursday and Friday). It looks like model output soundings and mixing schemes would suggest 40s on Thursday and perhaps 50s on Friday !! That'll feel pretty good for a change.

By Friday night, another arctic boundary will ease south across the region as a strong H5 wave passes through the northern stream across southern Canada and the northern U.S. The high pressure behind this boundary is nothing to sneeze at and ranging from 1038 mb to 1046 mb on the various outputs. Bottom line, this airmass will likely have some bite to it for the upcoming weekend and this will set the stage for what could be some active winter weather next week.

The arctic high is progged to build into the midwest while at the same time, a series of H5 waves move through the southern stream. What's unclear is which wave will become the main player and strong will it bee ?? At this time, I am favoring the ECMWF - as the GFS in its out periods usually has a cold bias to it. In other words, it tends to dampen out southern stream energy much to quick.

This would imply the threat at some overrunning wintry precip (snow or ice, or even both) would be possible early next week around the region. We'll watch it close for you. In the meantime, enjoy the milder temperatures that Thursday and Friday will bring,

Weather History:

1978 - A paralyzing "Nor'easter" produced a record 21 inches of snow at Boston, 15 to 20 inches in Rhode Island, and one to two feet of snow in Pennsylvania. Winds along the coast of Connecticut gusted to 70 mph. (David Ludlum)

Have a great day all and stay warm,

Jay