New Year... A Changing - Colder Pattern On The Way

Happy New Year all !! Had a great break with the wife and kids but now it's back to work and it's looking as if the milder pattern we've recently enjoyed is about to turn progressively colder.
Is it going to be a sudden, rapid change into the deep freeze and staying cold for a long period ?? No, but the pattern aloft is telling me that several bouts of colder air will invade from the north with the possibility of a very strong arctic high (very cold air) entering the U.S. next week.

The reason for this is due to a breakdown of the polar vortex over Alaska and strong pacific nearly zonal flow across the lower 48. The next big ridge will gradually build across the west and kind of oscillate some from between 120 Deg to 140 Deg West. This in turn will allow for a trough to deepen downstream over the central and eastern U.S. allowing colder air to spill southward from Canada - with even some hint of a polar vortex redeveloping near St James Bay next week sometime.

In the short term, a wave is expected to form on the boundary that passed through here yesterday (Sunday) to our south as an upper level trough deepens across the central U.S. and Ohio Valley. The vorticity with this upper trough is disorganized though with several weak lobes passing east northeast through the trough. This means that the system that is expected to develop will be generally weak in nature. As the entire system moves our way, WAA and isentropic lift will result in a cold rain over the region later tonight into tomorrow with rain amounts generally light in nature. There may be a bit of freezing rain - mainly on elevated surfaces (remember ground temps are pretty warm out there !) for areas north of Louisville overnight into tomorrow morning. Sure, a few icy spots could form to the north, but overall problems will be minimal.

Patchy light rain and drizzle will still be possible through Tuesday night as the upper trough will be passing through the region. Another speed max will move rapidly southeast then turn east as the entire upper trough moves slowly through. This speed max will allow colder air to spill into the Ohio Valley as H85 temps are progged to drop into the -10 to -13 range by Thursday. This boundary and upper speed max (along with the decent CAA) may bring a few flurries to the area but that looks to be about all for any snow chances this week.

Sorry snow lovers but the snow machine looks like it will stay quiet for the area for the next 5 to 7 days. After that ....???? hhhhmmmmm, things may get a bit more interesting - but we'll worry about that later this week into the weekend.

Have a great day all,
Jay