Major Winter Storm Chances Increasing !!

Good evening all, long day of basketball then family events so sorry for the delayed post.
Well, it certainly looks to me that the chances for a major winter storm across our region continue to increase. 00z NAM model run has had a major shift south in its snow area - and now smack-dab over us !! The 18z run of the GFS did have a shift farther north in its snow area from what the 12z run had but it appears the latest 00z run is shifting it again a bit back to the south. Bottom line, short range models are starting to come into agreement here !! Honestly, it's getting to the point where we can safely say a major winter storm is likely for the Ohio Valley beginning Monday night. It also appears that the entire viewing area will be impacted by this event. Looking at the thermal structures from the latest models, at this time anyway - Louisville and points north would be mostly snow through midday Tuesday (although some sleet may try to mix in especially Tuesday morning before this first decent wave of precip ends. South of Louisville, it looks like it will start as snow then transition to sleet. South of the Western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys, start as snow and sleet but transition to frzg rain with significant glazing very possible. Looks like the precip will taper off by midday Tuesday as the first speed max and its associated WAA pattern shifts east only to be followed by another wave of precip later Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
This second wave of precip looks as if it'll be more of a wintry mix of sleet / freezing rain / or even rain (depending on the location of the 32 degree sfc isotherm) from near Louisville and points south with more of a sleet and snow ptype across southern Indiana.

Alright, you all know how I hate to give snow amounts this far out because 1) the system hasn't even formed yet and 2) if the thermal patterns or placement of the jet max are off by ohh... let's say just ten miles or so out west where the system takes shape....... by the time it gets here, those thermal patterns could be off by 100 or more miles. Folks that's the difference between all rain / frzg rain or a deep snowfall. That's why forecasting snow amounts this far out can be very tricky. By now you all know that I typically won't put numbers on a snowfall event (at least on TV) unless we are inside 24 hours - simply because of the reasons stated above and you can see what I'm talking about by just looking at the vastly different snowfall outputs from just today's models alone and how both the GFS and NAM continue to shift the snow axis. So should we talk amounts ????? why not, it's only snow right....???
Given what I see right now I like 3 to 6 inches north of an E'town to Bardstown line through Louisville into southern Indiana. South of this zone - more of a wintry mix with significant accumulations of sleet and ice possible (1/4/ to 1/2").

Is this going to change....??? probably ! But just know that it looks like a decent winter event will take place across our regio starting late Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

Another update tomorrow.. Goodnight all

Jay