A Cold Pattern on the Horizon... A Little Snow Possible

That colder weather pattern that I discussed in the previous post looks to still be on the way. As we speak the pattern is slowly transitioning closer to what it was in late November / first 2 weeks of December of last year. A big ridge will slowly establish itself along the west coast of the U.S. by later next week. This will result in a large downstream trough for the eastern half - with even a polar vortex redeveloping over St James Bay by next Thursday or Friday. Hello cold air !!! This pattern will effectively open up the flood gates to some pretty cold air that will likely invade the lower 48 in various degrees - i.e. there will likely be several polar boundaries that move across the eastern half of the U.S. begining next week. Just how cold the air will be depends on the exact long wave position and amplification. Just know it looks like it could turn pretty cold around here from time to time later next week (i.e. in the 7 to 10 day period)

The rain did arrive right on time last night. Although a Winter Weather Advisory was issued by NWS, as I talked about in yesterday's post, it really turned out to be a non-winter event. A few icy spots developed well north of Louisville on elevated surfaces for a short time but again, that was about it.

Upper trough will continue to work through the area over the next 24 hours. This will keep the pattern unsettled to say the least with lots of clouds and some patchy light rain from time to time today into this evening.

The deeper moisture field is progged to push east by tomorrow morning, but with some upper energy (H5) still around, a few snowflakes will be possible in spots as the entire column continues to cool off.

Another speed max is expected to dive on the back side of the trough. This is the NAM 36hr prog valid 00z Thu.

Nice jet position (LFQ) and a pretty decent slug of H7 moisture and vertical motion progged to cruise through the region. We could see a brief period of light snow mainly on the Ky side of the Ohio river Wednesday evening as a result. We'll watch it close,

Have a great day all.

Jay