Chilly Weekend... Winter Event Monday Night into Tuesday...

Hey all... hope the day is going well... Quick update as we have b-ball games today for the kids.

First off, quiet but chilly weather this weekend . Low level temps and mixing schemes would suggest upper 20s & low 30s this weekend. Good dose of sunshine this afternoon as low level moisture mixes out. Mid clouds return late tonight with cloudy skies expected all day tomorrow. Could be a stray flurry especially north of Louisville later tomorrow but nothing big as low level dry air will be too much to overcome.

Overrunning winter event still on track for Monday night into Tuesday. It still looks like we start as snow in Louisville (and much of the viewing area) Monday night. Snow should continue into Tuesday morning but as WAA continues... the snow will likely change to a mix of sleet and frzg rain from near Louisville and points south with more of a snow and sleet mix the farther north you go. Again, as I mentioned yesterday there is certainly the potential for several inches of accumulation of snow and possibly significant glazing across the far south.

New GFS 12z run is pretty bullish on the snow accumulations across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky (including Louisville). I have not looked at the new data with great detail yet - and won't until after the kids games, but my gut is telling me (as well as past experience) that we may see a gradual shift north to the significant snow accumulation band. My reasoning for this is the GFS typically has a cold bias to it. Because of this bias, GFS forecasted snowbands typically shift north as we get closer to the actual event. Also, if you look at where the polar jet is located (over the Great Lakes) this typically implies the cold air south of the jet axis gets shallower and shallower the farther south you go.

I will say this though... I'm getting more and more excited about the possible prospects of a decent snow around here because a quick gaze at the 12z NAM also has some decent cold air in place (cold enough for snow) as the moisture moves in - although it paints the more significant snow farther north through 84 hours.

I'll have a detailed update likely later today. Keep your fingers crossed - maybe this will be the one !!

Jay