Winter Storm Warning... Big Time Icing Expected

Quick update as precip is developing out west and on the way... Guys... this is going to be an ice storm !!. A little snow mixing in with the sleet at the onset with this one... Mid level warming will take over and provide for a big ice storm across the local area.

2 waves of prcip still expected... 1st wave develops late evening or around midnight.

Louisville: sleet and snow to start... to all sleet by late night into the morning commute. Sleet continues tomorrow morning.... changing to light freezing rain as 1st wave diminishes during the afternoon. Next wave of precip explodes over region tomorrow night... Freezing rain in Louisville... Freezing rain back to sleet then snow by daybreak Wednesday. Snow ends by midday Wednesday.
Accumulations: 3 to 5 inches of snow and sleet including what we get late tonight / early tomorrow and then again Wednesday morning. Whatever snow does fall in Louisville will be mashed down and coated by 1/2 to 1 inch of icing Tuesday night with power outages possible.

North of Louisville: more snow and sleet overnight into tomorrow morning... changing to sleet except across far northern areas ( Lawrence / Jackson /Northern Jennings - mainly all snow).
snow and sleet to all snow far northern areas, closer to Ohio River: frzg rain Tuesday evening to sleet and snow late. Snow diminishes Wednesday morning.
Accumulations: 6 to 12 inches snow and sleet north of a Paoli to Crothersville IN line .
farther south towards the Ohio River: 3 to 6 inches snow and sleet in addition to up to 1/2 inch of icing (mainly Tuesday night) closer to the Ohio River.

South of Louisville: freezing rain and sleet... tonight through tomorrow,
Late tomorrow through tomorrow evening cold rain in the far southeast... but hvy freezing rain along the western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys... north into Louisville. Ice accumulations could reach over 1 inch closer E'town, Bardstown, as well as Leitchfield.

Accumulations by midday Wed: Around 1 Inch of snow & sleet (mainly sleet) Heavy Icing in excess of 1 inch possible - power outages possible

Of course depending on where you are located will depend on exactly what type of precip you receive and how much... just know it looks pretty rough over the next 2 days or so.

Be careful all,

Jay

Winter Storm Warning... It's Gonna Get Nasty

Quick update... as I'm headin' into work early...
Winter storm warning posted - very warrented. The following is for middle sections of viewing area - Louisville. Sleet / snow begins midnight-ish give or take. Several hours of moderate perhaps hvy snow expected. 2 to 5 inches overnight for Louisville. Go to sleet tomorrow morning as 1st wave of precip diminshes... North of Louisville - solid 3 to 6 inches of snow. South of Louisville 1 to 2 inches of snow / sleet changing to sleet & frzg rain by tomorrow am (up to 1/4" of ice possible. Sleet / frzg rain diminishes during the day.

Wave 2 of precip develops late tomorrow and cranks up tomorrow night.
Louisville area: frzg rain : significant icing poossible (over 1/2") back to sleet after 2am to snow by Wed am. Additional inch or so of snow possible. In all by Wed Midday... 3 to 6 inches snow / sleet and over 1/2" ice possible,

North of Louisville: Freezing rain/sleet ... significant icing southern Indiana, back to snow after midnight. Additional 2 to 4 inches snow possible by Wed midday. In all... 5 to 10" snow/sleet + 1/4/to 1/2 inch ice especially closer to Ohio River. The heavier snow amounts should by up around Bedford, Seymour etc...

South of Louisville: Frzg rain immediately south of Louisville, to sleet late changing to snow Wed am. Significant icing of 1/2 to 1 inch possible, additional snow Wed am... 1 inch or less.
Along and south of the western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys... cold rain tomorrow night... changing to a period of sleet and snow before ending Wednesday am. Little or no snow (less than 1 inch)

Keep in mind a slight shift in the H5 short means a shift in the thermal ribbon which also means a shift in the precip bands. We'll keep you posted and yes this could still change some so stay tuned. just know it's going to be pretty messy around here the next 1 to 2 days.

Have a great day,
Jay

Winter Storm to Move In Monday Night... Winter Storm Watch

Still looks like a decent winter storm will impact the area Monday night into Tuesday... The P-types are going to be all over the place with this one. As I was afraid of yesterday... the latest 12z run of the GFS is indeed warming the column over Louisville now to have more of an ice storm for Louisville and about the southern 3/4ths of the viewing area with the heavier snow farher north. NAM is colder - mainly all snow but is also much weaker with the system ejecting out and that is the whole problem !!!! Winter Storm Watch now in effeect for the area Monday night and Tuesday

Let me explain... because the GFS is stronger with its upper energy, it is developing a larger and heavier batch of precipitation but its also much stronger with its WAA zone. The NAM is just the opposite on all accounts. I want to wait to get the entire 12z data suite in (and maybe even the 18z in order to see a trend in strength) before I really make my decision on which way to go but at this point I am leaning in the direction of the GFS. Remember my post from yesterday morning ??? This is what I said... "my gut is telling me (as well as past experience) that we may see a gradual shift north to the significant snow accumulation band. My reasoning for this is the GFS typically has a cold bias to it. Because of this bias, GFS forecasted snowbands typically shift north as we get closer to the actual event. Also, if you look at where the polar jet is located (over the Great Lakes) this typically implies the cold air south of the jet axis gets shallower and shallower the farther south you go". Well, the latest GFS seems to now be going in that direction. Because of the stronger WAA zone it looks like more of an ice event for Louisville that a snow event. I see a sleet/snow start Monday night - and with some evap cooling at the start... going over to snow for several hours then a change over to sleet and freezing rain by morning Tuesday. Still several inches of snow possible but it appears the heaviest band is shifting north...

Again, I'll have another update later today when I get the full suite in...

Just know its looking quite messy around here Monday overnight into Tuesday.. Gosh I hope the GFS shifts back south... would be great to haver a big snow !!

Talk to you later today

Jay

Major Winter Storm Chances Increasing !!

Good evening all, long day of basketball then family events so sorry for the delayed post.
Well, it certainly looks to me that the chances for a major winter storm across our region continue to increase. 00z NAM model run has had a major shift south in its snow area - and now smack-dab over us !! The 18z run of the GFS did have a shift farther north in its snow area from what the 12z run had but it appears the latest 00z run is shifting it again a bit back to the south. Bottom line, short range models are starting to come into agreement here !! Honestly, it's getting to the point where we can safely say a major winter storm is likely for the Ohio Valley beginning Monday night. It also appears that the entire viewing area will be impacted by this event. Looking at the thermal structures from the latest models, at this time anyway - Louisville and points north would be mostly snow through midday Tuesday (although some sleet may try to mix in especially Tuesday morning before this first decent wave of precip ends. South of Louisville, it looks like it will start as snow then transition to sleet. South of the Western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys, start as snow and sleet but transition to frzg rain with significant glazing very possible. Looks like the precip will taper off by midday Tuesday as the first speed max and its associated WAA pattern shifts east only to be followed by another wave of precip later Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
This second wave of precip looks as if it'll be more of a wintry mix of sleet / freezing rain / or even rain (depending on the location of the 32 degree sfc isotherm) from near Louisville and points south with more of a sleet and snow ptype across southern Indiana.

Alright, you all know how I hate to give snow amounts this far out because 1) the system hasn't even formed yet and 2) if the thermal patterns or placement of the jet max are off by ohh... let's say just ten miles or so out west where the system takes shape....... by the time it gets here, those thermal patterns could be off by 100 or more miles. Folks that's the difference between all rain / frzg rain or a deep snowfall. That's why forecasting snow amounts this far out can be very tricky. By now you all know that I typically won't put numbers on a snowfall event (at least on TV) unless we are inside 24 hours - simply because of the reasons stated above and you can see what I'm talking about by just looking at the vastly different snowfall outputs from just today's models alone and how both the GFS and NAM continue to shift the snow axis. So should we talk amounts ????? why not, it's only snow right....???
Given what I see right now I like 3 to 6 inches north of an E'town to Bardstown line through Louisville into southern Indiana. South of this zone - more of a wintry mix with significant accumulations of sleet and ice possible (1/4/ to 1/2").

Is this going to change....??? probably ! But just know that it looks like a decent winter event will take place across our regio starting late Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

Another update tomorrow.. Goodnight all

Jay

Chilly Weekend... Winter Event Monday Night into Tuesday...

Hey all... hope the day is going well... Quick update as we have b-ball games today for the kids.

First off, quiet but chilly weather this weekend . Low level temps and mixing schemes would suggest upper 20s & low 30s this weekend. Good dose of sunshine this afternoon as low level moisture mixes out. Mid clouds return late tonight with cloudy skies expected all day tomorrow. Could be a stray flurry especially north of Louisville later tomorrow but nothing big as low level dry air will be too much to overcome.

Overrunning winter event still on track for Monday night into Tuesday. It still looks like we start as snow in Louisville (and much of the viewing area) Monday night. Snow should continue into Tuesday morning but as WAA continues... the snow will likely change to a mix of sleet and frzg rain from near Louisville and points south with more of a snow and sleet mix the farther north you go. Again, as I mentioned yesterday there is certainly the potential for several inches of accumulation of snow and possibly significant glazing across the far south.

New GFS 12z run is pretty bullish on the snow accumulations across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky (including Louisville). I have not looked at the new data with great detail yet - and won't until after the kids games, but my gut is telling me (as well as past experience) that we may see a gradual shift north to the significant snow accumulation band. My reasoning for this is the GFS typically has a cold bias to it. Because of this bias, GFS forecasted snowbands typically shift north as we get closer to the actual event. Also, if you look at where the polar jet is located (over the Great Lakes) this typically implies the cold air south of the jet axis gets shallower and shallower the farther south you go.

I will say this though... I'm getting more and more excited about the possible prospects of a decent snow around here because a quick gaze at the 12z NAM also has some decent cold air in place (cold enough for snow) as the moisture moves in - although it paints the more significant snow farther north through 84 hours.

I'll have a detailed update likely later today. Keep your fingers crossed - maybe this will be the one !!

Jay

Warm Weather About Done... Back to the Cold and Then Could Come the Snow...

Man o man, what a nice break from the cold weather. Try to enjoy the next few hours because an arctic boundary will once again usher in the colder air starting this evening. Check out the late morning surface chart... Get ready and nice push of colder air is racing in our direction !












Much colder temperatures on tap for the weekend with H95 to H9 temperatures progged to be in the -7 to -11c range. In house mixing schemes suggest upper 20s to near 30 for high temperatures. Saturday looks quiet with even some sun by afternoon and Sunday looks cloudy as H7 moisture goes sky high with even some late day / Sunday night flurries possible (patchy light snow north) if we can moisten up the H9 to H85 levels. This is the 12z GFS sounding valid Sunday evening and is showing lots of dry air to overcome before any snow could reach the ground.
















Still looking interesting for early next week. It doesn't look like a huge, blowout winter storm but it does appear some snow along with sleet and freezing rain could be in the offing starting Monday night and lasting into Tuesday.

Here's the setup... Cold high pressure in place across the upper midwest and is progged to stay in that position by all models - so we've got our cold air source. It appears the cold air will be deep enough for snow or a mix of sleet and snow near Louisville... mainly all snow the farther north you go from Louisville... with more of a mix of snow, sleet, and frzg rain south of Louisville... and prehaps a pretty decent ice storm (glazing) across southern kentucky.


Upper air pattern showing a RRQ position of the polar stream and H5 short waves ejecting from the the big trough / H5 low over the western U.S. These H5 shorts will no doubt be weakening / minoring out as they move across the U.S. towards a more confluent flow but still appears they will be able to produce enough mid-level WAA and lift to saturate the column and produce an overrunning event across our region in the late Monday - into Tuesday time frame.



























Pink: snow, Red: Sleet, Blue: Frzg Rain

Current bufkit data and model QPF data would suggest the potential for several inches of snow across the region with amounts varying depending on where the exact thermal ribbon sets up - and we'll have a much better handle on that as we progress through the weekend... Stay tuned and have a great weekend.

Weather History:

1971 - The temperature at Prospect Creek, AK, plunged to 80 degrees below zero, the coldest reading of record for the United States. (David Ludlum)















Jay

Nice Warm Up Over the Next 2 Days... Chillier This weekend... Major Winter Storm for the Ohio Valley Next Week ???

Upper trough to lift out the next 2 days, This will allow a warm up across the region as big time WAA set ups across the Ohio Valley. Low level mixing schemes support 40s tomorrow and possibly 50s on Friday. That'll feel nice after this recent cold spell.

Another cold northern high will push south from Canada for this weekend. The leading edge looks as if it will pass through Friday night. Temperatures will return to below average levels once again for Saturday and Sunday.

Still some unsettled weather on the way for next week, but I got to be honest... it's not looking all that good anymore for a major snowstorm around here. This far out, I don't even look at the sfc patterns progged for early next week. Instead, I look at how the H5 and up patterns are evolving. What - for a time - looked like a good set up in the upper levels for a major winter storm around here, is now changing. Current trends are suggesting more of light snow / mix to start then going over to more of a rain event for us.

Got some big things going today for the family so I gotta cut this short. I'll look at the new models in detail later today - see how the trends are evolving and have a detailed post likely later today sometime.

Have a great day all,

Jay

A Temperature Roller Coaster Ride... An Ohio Valley Winter Storm Next Week ??

The wintry weather pattern that's been in place across the Ohio Valley the last 3 days or so (with occasional flurries, snow showers, and cold) will ease some the rest of the work week. I believe we were the only ones to be talking about light snowfall accumulations ever since last Friday morning as that was when we mentioned 1 to as much as 2 inches of snow with this pattern - really happy about that !!

Okay, so let's talk about the current and expected weather conditions. Large deep trough that has been carved out be a series of speed maxes (H5 short waves) remain in place across the eastern U.S. This trough will finally start weaken as heights begin rising over the region. This will be caused by a breakdown of the huge western ridge as strong pieces of energy crash into the western areas of the U.S. It looks as if the models are suggesting 2 distinct streams will take shape over the next week or so - the polar stream which will be located across the northern U.S. and the southern stream located across the southern 3rd of the U.S.

As heights rise, this will set up a WAA pattern across the central and eastern U.S. Warmer temperatures will return for 2 days - (basically Thursday and Friday). It looks like model output soundings and mixing schemes would suggest 40s on Thursday and perhaps 50s on Friday !! That'll feel pretty good for a change.

By Friday night, another arctic boundary will ease south across the region as a strong H5 wave passes through the northern stream across southern Canada and the northern U.S. The high pressure behind this boundary is nothing to sneeze at and ranging from 1038 mb to 1046 mb on the various outputs. Bottom line, this airmass will likely have some bite to it for the upcoming weekend and this will set the stage for what could be some active winter weather next week.

The arctic high is progged to build into the midwest while at the same time, a series of H5 waves move through the southern stream. What's unclear is which wave will become the main player and strong will it bee ?? At this time, I am favoring the ECMWF - as the GFS in its out periods usually has a cold bias to it. In other words, it tends to dampen out southern stream energy much to quick.

This would imply the threat at some overrunning wintry precip (snow or ice, or even both) would be possible early next week around the region. We'll watch it close for you. In the meantime, enjoy the milder temperatures that Thursday and Friday will bring,

Weather History:

1978 - A paralyzing "Nor'easter" produced a record 21 inches of snow at Boston, 15 to 20 inches in Rhode Island, and one to two feet of snow in Pennsylvania. Winds along the coast of Connecticut gusted to 70 mph. (David Ludlum)

Have a great day all and stay warm,

Jay

Chilly and a bit of Snow,...

Quick Sunday morning update...

Forecast looks to be on track... occasional flurries and snow showers are likely this afternoon and the same into tonight. As a matter of fact, decent H5 wave heading into the area tonight will likely enhance the snow showers some and there could be some light accumulation.




















Another H5 wave on the way for tomorrow night but the latest guidance is showing this vort lobe passing farther west than earlier runs. A few flurries or passing show showers will still be possible but with the deeper moisture passing west of us, this wave should not cause much accumulation.


Bottom line, our best potential for some light accumulations will actually come with tonight's (Sunday night's) wave.

Did you see the game last night ???? Wow !! The Cards did look good !!


Have a great day,
Jay

A Bit Snowy... Not A Big Storm, But Some Snow. Warmer Next Week.

Hope the day is going well,,
This will be a short one as it is the weekend and I need to spend some time with the family.
Forecast is on track... rest of this day will feature a good dose of sunshine, windy, but also warmer conditions. Temperatures will easily climb into the upper 30s today (some near 40) as a clipper type system passes to our north but pulls milder air up into our region. The cold front with this system will pass through tonight. Flurries and snow showers will likely form across the region tonight and stay with us (on occasion anyway) the next 3 days.
As I talked about in the previous post, several speed maxes will continue to carve out a rather deep trough over the Ohio Valley the next several days. We will be on the cyclonic side of the upper jet so expect lots of low clouds (saturation likely from near H925 up to around H85). With temperatures in these levels cold enough for ice crystals, periods of flurries and occasional snow showers will be with us the next 2 to 3 days. The snow shower activity may be enhanced some especially as these upper speed maxes pass by. It appears there will be 3 of these disturbances, the first overnight tonight, the next - Sunday night, and the 3rd - Monday night.
Again, we're not talking about a lot of snow but wouldn't be surprised to see a light coating by the time all is said and done. Models printing out .06 to as much as .14" qpf over this time period. So certainly up to an inch - possibly as much as two in a few spots cannot be ruled out by later Tuesday.

You all have a great weekend... Big game this evening... My prediction: Cards: 75, Pitt: 70.

Yours....?????

Weather History: Remember this one ???

17 January 1994 → Louisville's heaviest January snowfall (calendar day): 15.9 inches. (NWS Louisville KY.) The following link is a look back...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/sclimo/evt_jan171994.php

Jay

Coldest In Over 4 Years !! A Bit Snowy...

GM all, hope your day is going well ! Well we did it... -1F for the official low this morning in Louisville. Can you imagine if we would of had a decent snowpack ?? No doubt, we would have been in the -10 to -20F range. Good thing there wasn't any snow on the ground ! This cold wave is hitting us all where it hurts - the wallets ! Got home from work last night at ~ 2am, guess what ??? my furnace went out !!!!!!!!!!!!! Real Nice - wonder what that's gonna cost me ?

The following is a link to the NWS for other temperature info : http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=21146&source=0

Let's talk weather... Arctic high pressure firmly in control of today's weather, mainly sunny and cold - mid / upper teens. A quick fall this evening into the single digits as we decouple but then steady out as WAA takes place in the low layers ahead of an H5 short and its surface system dropping southeast out of southcentral Canada in pushing across the Great Lakes into the northeast. Decent southwesterly flow over the region on Saturday will bring moderation in our temps. Mixing schemes would suggest mid / upper 30s for Saturday afternoon.

Okay now let's talk about a bit of a snowy period that's going to set up over us. Not a huge snowstorm but just a 2 to 3 day period of occasional snow showers and flurries - and yes, probably enough to whiten the ground for many of us by late Tuesday.

Here's the set up...

On the back side of this initial H5 wave that will bring us the moderation in temps tomorrow (Saturday) will come a series of speed maxes (at least 3 H5 vortlobes) that will amplify the upper trough over the Ohio Valley. More importantly, because these pieces of energy will be trailing each other so closely, the upper trough will stay in place over the Ohio Valley as it amplifies.

Bottom line, our region will be on the cyclonic side of the upper jet, and temps aloft will be more than cold enough to generate ice crystals when those specific layers saturate. So.......... Snow !! Again, not a lot but enough to make it feel and look wintry around here. Looking at some of the model soundings, there's even some hint of positive areas showing up (i.e. low level CAPE) so some of this light snow may be a bit convective in nature.

You know, those situations where you get a snow shower that really cuts down visibility for a short time, then it clears up only to be followed by another decent snow shower. We could see this scenario on Sunday and Monday. It looks like the final speed max in the series will affect the region later Monday night into Tuesday. GFS progging a decent band of H7 moisture with this energy.

This would imply more of a period of general light snow at this time. To be honest, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see up to an inch -some spots two, after all is said and done by Tuesday night !

Cold and snowy pattern breaks down by Wednesday as a large trough crashes into the west. Remember what I've said in the past..... whenever you have a trough a particular region, you typically always have a ridge downstream of equal strength. In other words, this western trough will cause rising heights and warmer temps for us by later next Week.

Still some possibilty for decent wintry weather in the Jan 25th to 27th time frame with polar jet progged to remain fairly close to the area and plenty of energy in the southwest in the southern stream. This is the 240 hr ECMWF from last night's 00z run. We'll watch it close.

Weather History:

1987 - A winter storm produced a total of 61 inches of snow at Rye CO, and wind gusts to 100 mph in Utah. The storm then spread heavy snow from the Texas panhandle to Indiana. Tulia TX received 16 inches of snow, and up to 14 inches was reported in western Oklahoma. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Have a great weekend all and stay warm,

Jay

Arctic Air, Milder This Weekend, Active Winter Weather in the Extended ??

Hello cold air... Wow, pretty chilly out there ! Not even near record cold (-22 F Louisville - alltime coldest), but still pretty cold nonetheless. Check out the cold air earlier this morning across the upper midwest and northern plains ---- now that's cold !!

The core of the cold air will settle into the region overnight into early Friday (1045mb+ high).

This will likely bring temperatures to the coldest levels we've seen in over four years - or since Christmas morning in 2004 when we hit 0 F degrees for a low.

Temperatures will moderate Friday night into Saturday as another clipper type system moves from southern Canada across the lower lakes then into the northeast US. This will bring accum. snow to places like MI, northern OH, into New England. This system will also pull milder weather (relatively speaking) back into the Ohio Valley for Saturday on rather gusty southwest breezes. This systems trailing cold front will pass through Saturday night allowing for for cold air to surge in from the north - although not as cold as what we have now.

Another H5 shortwave will dig southeast across the upper midwest and Ohio Valley, amplifying the trough some for Sunday. This will put us on the cyclonic side of the upper jet and with H850 moisture present and H85 temps in the -10c to -12c range, we will likely see a wintry day with lots of clouds and occasional snow showers and flurries.

It appears that this pattern will remain in place until next Tuesday... Bottom line, below average temps with occasional bouts of flurries or snow showers but NO BIG SNOWS into next week.

Looking down the road.... well that may be a bit more interesting !! I'm talking in the 8 to 11 day range here. Check out the extended ECMWF H5 chart from last night's 00z run and valid 00z Sun Jan. 25th.

Hmmmmmm ??? some potential for wintry weather across the Ohio Valley. Notice the polar jet dipping into the northern plains and then across the Ohio Valley. This is fine and will likely keep the cold air around, but more importantly, check out all the energy moving into the southwest U.S. in the southern stream. It'll be real interesting to see how this unfolds here as it could (and I mean could) setup a decent winter overrunning event for the Ohio Valley sometime in the January 25th to 26th period. Is it a lock that it will happen ??? Of course not - but it is worth watching.

Weather history:

1932 - Up to two inches of snow whitened the Los Angeles basin of California. The Los Angeles Civic Center reported an inch of snow, and even the beaches of Santa Monica were whitened with snow, in what proved to be a record snowstorm for Los Angeles. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

stay warm and have a great day all,

Jay

Little Bit Of Snow, Bunches of Cold...

The cold air we've been talking about for the last 2 weeks is pushing towards the region. A fast moving "clipper" type system will continue to pass well north of us today. This will keep all the decent snow well north of our region. If you have been following this blog, then you've heard me say time and time again that in clipper systems, most all the snow falls along and north of the sfc low track with the heaviest accumulations aways (aways) along and north of the H5 vort track.

As this system passes north today, it will pull in some warmer weather for a short time this afternoon as temperatures climb into the upper 30s and even a few low 40s. This milder air will be short lived though... The arctic boundary will pass through here early this evening. Behind it... a band of flurries, gusty northwest winds, and very strong CAA. Bottom line, temperatures will drop into the upper single digits by tomorrow morning with wind chill values well below zero.

With H95 temps progged to be in the -16 to -18c range, high temps on Thursday will likely hold in the low teens - with wind chills near or below zero. The surface high pressure (1045mb+) builds in tomorrow night. Winds will lighten significantly and with a mainly clear skies, temperatures are expected to be the coldest we've seen since the Christmas 2004 storm. On Christmas morning in 2004 the temperature was 0 degrees. We are expecting a low near zero in Louisville Thursday night into Friday morning. !!

Weather History,

1979 - Chicago, IL, was in the midst of their second heaviest snow of record as, in thirty hours, the city was buried under 20.7 inches of snow. The twenty-nine inch snow cover following the storm was an all-time record for Chicago. (David Ludlum)

14 January 1932 → Record warmth spread throughout the area, with highs of 69 at Louisville, 68 at Lexington, and 72 at Bowling Green. (NWS - Louisville, KY)

Bundle up folks and have a great day.

Jay

Winter Weather Advisory ,,,, But.........

The Nat'l Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the regio overnight into Tuesday morning. Folks, I just don't think this is going to be much of a problem for the area though ! Surface temps will stay well above freezing overnight into tomorrow morning so any precip that does fall will likely not cause any icing on area roadways.
We still like a band of patchy light rain developing late tonight as low level temps (H95 and below) stay above critical. This light rain will gradually change to wet snow as the column cools from top to bottom - and this is expected to occur around dawn but even then, sfc temps will still be in the mid 30s. As a result, the morning commute should be in pretty good shape. The light snow is expected to taper to flurries by mid/late morning with only minor grassy accumulations (at best) occurring.
Roadways will dry throughout the day as winds kick in from the west/northwest and as dewpts fall off the table. So........ even though temperatures are expected to fall into the 20s for the afternoon, it still looks like the roads will stay in pretty good shape and mainly free of any snow and ice.
Still expecting true arctic air to invade beginning Wednesday night and sticking around through Friday.

Have a good night all,

Jay

Big Cold... A Little Snow

Think the pattern is getting colder and more active ??? check out the latest US advisory map...

Those are blizzard warnings in red !!!

This week's weather will be highlighted basically by two, fast-moving clipper systems. Put your weather history hats on... if you recall, these systems typically don't bring us a lot of snow, but they can, and occasionally do, bring us a lot of wind and cold temperatures. It looks to me that this week's clipper systems will do the same....

The first clipper sfc low pressure will pass well north of our region - up across northern IL, northern IN etc... Along and north of this track is where the best snows will occur - as is the case with any clipper system. The thing that's a bit different with this one is that there will be a trailing / southern moving vort lobe that will likely cause enough lift even south of the main clipper to bring us a period of light precip late tonight into tomorrow morning.

Looking at the thermal profile, it appears there may be a little too much warm air in the lowest levels for all snow (which makes perfect sense considering where the main sfc low is tracking allowing for the low level WAA over us tonight). Having said that, both the NAM and GFS profiles would suggest a mix (or even all rain) to start and then ending as some light snow and flurries - taking this scenario... little / no accum expected. But I'll take a closer look at the thermal profile as the day wears on.

Temperatures will get pretty cold behind this one and steadily drop into the 20s with gusty winds expected.

The second (and stronger of the two) clipper system will pass through the region later Wednesday into Wednesday night. The sfc low with this clipper will also pass well north of us. Again, that means the best accumulating snowfall will be well north of us.

For us, this system will mean a lot of wind as strong WAA takes place Wednesday afternoon and then very strong CAA Wednesday night behind the arctic boundary. Yes, it looks like there will be some light snow and flurries located in a narrow band along and just behind the arctic front. Certainly not a lot, but perhaps enough for a light coating. Of course the big weather story with this second clipper for us will be the very cold air that spills in behind. Temperatures will likely fall into the single digits by Thursday morning and only hold in the teens for Thursday. If (and I mean IF) there is a light coating of snow on the ground, it's likely we'll see tempweratures drop to near zero or below for Thursday night / Friday morning... Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr get ready all - it's going to be a cold few days.

Weather History:

12 January 1928 → A small tornado struck Louisville, causing $89,000 in property loss

(Andew Wilson)

1985 - A record snowstorm struck portions of western and south central Texas. The palm trees of San Antonio were blanketed with up to thirteen and a half inches of snow, more snow than was ever previously received in an entire winter season. (Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

Have a great day all,

Jay

Coldest In Years !!! Rain for Saturday

Some of the coldest air in years has been camped out over Alaska and the NW territories of Canada. Surface temperatures have been in the -40 to -60F range !!!!! As I've been talking about in many of my previous posts, some (some) of this arctic air will make it into the lower 48 next week as the pattern changes. Also as we transition into this colder pattern, there will be several chances for light snow and flurries - and yes... before everything is all said and done - we could have a white ground for a change. I'll keep you updated on those snow chances.

Storm system for tomorrow still looks right on target giving us some rain late tonight into Saturday.

Weather History:

1976 - Lake effect snow squalls buried the town of Adams NY under 68 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

have a great day all

Jay

Think It's Cold Now...??? Just Wait.

A chilly Januray day setting up for the region... H9 temps only progged to be -9 to -10c ...Ouch. Mixing schemes will likely keep us in the lower 30s today. Also, little patch of H9 moisture progged to work in here later today - certainly cold enough for some ice crystals so a few flurries will be possible.

High pressure builds in tonight, it's gonna be a cold Thursday night as we decouple - light winds - and clear skies until late when a band of WAA high and mid clouds start moving in. this should allow for temperatures to fall back into the upper teens and low 20s area wide.

We will be inbetween systems through tomorrow as short wave ridging builds in. Actually, tomorrow looks like a decent day and probably like it may certainly be one of the nicer days we'll have for quite some time to come. Morning mid/high clouds will thin some for the afternoon and with decent WAA, we will go above average on the temps for your Friday - not bad !!

Next system - now in the northwest, will quickly move in. Clouds will thicken Friday night with rain developing late at night into Saturday morning. This will be a quick moving system though as the upper energy associated is a positive tilt open wave. Rain Saturday morning giving way to spotty drizzle in the afternoon and perhaps a late-day flurry. Bottom line - Saturday is NOT going to be a very nice day for any outdoor activities.

COLD AIR.......

Still on track and on the way for next week. Models are all finally catching onto the idea of a cold weather pattern developing, now the only problem is when exactly and just how cold will the air be. Models are having difficulty agreeing on which shortwave will actually be the one to really amplify the pattern. As a result, there are timing differences. The GFS has been the model of choice recently for the SHORT term - but NOT for the period in which we are talking about. This model has been all over the place - as it typically is when there is a pattern change taking place mainly due to its cold bias and truncation.

So.... I like the ECMWF as it has been the most consistant with its progs. It appears the cold air will come in several "chunks". The first arctic boundary will push through sometime late Monday night into the Tuesday time period. This air will be quite chilly but the "mother-load" will push into the Ohio Valley beginning Wednesday night behind a clipper type system that could bring us some snow on Wednesday. A 1050+mb high will build down into the region for Thursday sending h85 temps to -20c or even colder.... BRRRRRRRRR. That will likely translate to teens during the day and single digits at night, and if there's snow on the ground.... even colder.

Oh, and by the way... that won't be it for the cold air. Check out the extended (8 to 10 day) H5 ECM charts into next weekend. It looks like at least 2 more strong, arctic boundaries will move through the Ohio Valley as the west coast ridge / eastern trough really become locked in place.

WEATHER HISTORY:

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage.

(Source: David Ludlum)

we'll keep you posted, in the meantime, have a great day all

Jay

Snow Showers and Flurries To Continue...

Colder air continues to work into the region behind yesterday's rain maker. Although the deeper moisture field is now well east, there will still be some left behind to interact with the colder air to bring us snow showers and flurries throughout the day. With the upper level trough still over the area and weak H5 shorts/vort maxes quickly passing through the trough, occasional areas of vertical motion will also continue to swing across the Ohio Valley. Long story - short, a wintry day with rather gusty winds and some snow in the air.

Ground temps are still running fairly warm so although there will be some minor grassy accumulations from time to time under any heavier snow bursts, roads will remain mainly just wet. It looks as if the flurries and snow showers will continue into tonight as well. The difference, sfc temps will drop below freezing and with it being nighttime, minor accumulations will still be possible and icy spots may be developing around the region as well.

That colder weather pattern still looks to be in the cards next week... I'll have a complete update later today,


Weather History...

A major snow storm hit south central Indiana on January 6-7, 1996. The snow began around noon est and effected all the counties in the Louisville area before it stopped Sunday afternoon. The heavy snow began around 3pm est on the 6th and ended around 6 am est on the 7th. A strong double-barreled low pressure system moved from the Gulf states on the 6th to Georgia and then the South Carolina coast by the afternoon of the 7th. The snow became light and moved East of the Louisville area by 7pm est on the 7TH. By 6 am est January 7, accumulations ranged from 6 inches across Jefferson and Floyd counties to 14 inches across Orange County, IN.
(Source NWS - Louisville, KY)


Have a nice day,
Jay

A Cold Pattern on the Horizon... A Little Snow Possible

That colder weather pattern that I discussed in the previous post looks to still be on the way. As we speak the pattern is slowly transitioning closer to what it was in late November / first 2 weeks of December of last year. A big ridge will slowly establish itself along the west coast of the U.S. by later next week. This will result in a large downstream trough for the eastern half - with even a polar vortex redeveloping over St James Bay by next Thursday or Friday. Hello cold air !!! This pattern will effectively open up the flood gates to some pretty cold air that will likely invade the lower 48 in various degrees - i.e. there will likely be several polar boundaries that move across the eastern half of the U.S. begining next week. Just how cold the air will be depends on the exact long wave position and amplification. Just know it looks like it could turn pretty cold around here from time to time later next week (i.e. in the 7 to 10 day period)

The rain did arrive right on time last night. Although a Winter Weather Advisory was issued by NWS, as I talked about in yesterday's post, it really turned out to be a non-winter event. A few icy spots developed well north of Louisville on elevated surfaces for a short time but again, that was about it.

Upper trough will continue to work through the area over the next 24 hours. This will keep the pattern unsettled to say the least with lots of clouds and some patchy light rain from time to time today into this evening.

The deeper moisture field is progged to push east by tomorrow morning, but with some upper energy (H5) still around, a few snowflakes will be possible in spots as the entire column continues to cool off.

Another speed max is expected to dive on the back side of the trough. This is the NAM 36hr prog valid 00z Thu.

Nice jet position (LFQ) and a pretty decent slug of H7 moisture and vertical motion progged to cruise through the region. We could see a brief period of light snow mainly on the Ky side of the Ohio river Wednesday evening as a result. We'll watch it close,

Have a great day all.

Jay