Another Massive Winter Storm - Out West, For Us... Rain

Another very large storm system is on the way for the next few days. But like so many times so far this season (the exception - the big snow last weekend in the east), the main energy will again pass well to our west. This simply means we will be on the warm air side of this storm with rain the primary p-type for our region.

This is our exclusive in-house WLKY-TV snow model output...

It does look like a little snow on the way for the weekend... as cold air wraps into the Ohio Valley behind this massive winter storm, snow showers and flurries will become likely for Saturday and Sunday. Certainly not a lot of snow but there could be some minor accumulations - which would be kind of cool considering it's still the Christmas weekend.

Have a great Wednesday all.

Jay

A Cold Rain To A Bit of Snow

Sorry for the delay today gang... well so far so good... The forecast seems to be on track.
NWS has expanded the winter weather advisory to include the Louisville metro. I still don't think we will see all that much accumulation in Louisville from this system.

East of Louisville and in the far eastern sections of the WLKY viewing area (Frankfort, Waddy, Owenton, Lawrenceburg, Bradfordsville etc...) 1 to locally 2 inches of wet snow is expected to accumulate over night into Saturday early morning, With heavier totals (3"+) around Lexington and points east.



For Louisville and areas west, I do think the rain will change to some wet snow late tonight or towards daybreak, but with the ground fairly warm, wet, and the fact that the temps will be above freezing whenthe snow is falling, only minor grassy accumulations (if any at all) are expected.



Saturday will feature a damp, chilly day with a mix of light snow, rain, and drizzle. No accumulations of snow as temperatures will be well into the mid/upper 30s. By Saturday night, temperatures are expected to fall to near freezing and with some light snow and flurries still in the forecast, light accumulations are expected generally on the order of less than 1 inch

have a nice weekend all

Jay

The Mid-Atlantic Is Going to Get Nailed !!

A major winter storm developing to our east... Ground zero.... Virginia (12 to 16 inches of snow likely)

NWS:
Winter Storm Warning
Alert:
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL SLOW
DOWN SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDE NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN
FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA PROVIDING COLD AIR. THIS SETUP BRINGS A
MAJOR SNOWSTORM TO THE AREA.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM
EST SUNDAY.

* A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CHANGING TO ALL
BY DUSK. SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IN THE WARNED AREA. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED. DOWNED TREES OR TREE LIMBS...ALONG WITH POWER
OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

* STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND A FOOT ARE EXPECTED.

* ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WESTERN
SLOPES SATURDAY NIGHT.






For us... going forecast still looks to be on track... Light rain dvelops tonight ; mixes or even changes to snow into saturday morning. Ocn'l light snow (may be mixed at times with rain - during the day Satuurday)... back to light snow / flurries Saturday late / Saturday evening.

Still thinking an inch or less for much of our area and generally confined to grassy/elevated areas. The new 12z data suite is coming in now... I'll have a complete update later today.



Have a great Friday all


Jay

A bit Wintry This Weekend... A Christmas Week Winter Storm ??

Hello gang, lots to discuss...

First off this weekend's system. Two H5 shortwaves, One in the deep south and the other digging southeast through the Plains towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The southern short has most of the moisture with it. The baroclinic zone seems to be setting up way to our south and east. This is where the H85 low will track and as a result, the heaviest precip will stay to our east and south. As a matter of fact, it's distinctly possible we won't get any precip from this southern shortwave.

The second wave continue to dig towards our region Friday night into Saturday. As the speed max / vort work southeast and then gradually make the easterly turn across TN, this will place our region in the favored left front quad of the upper jet.

Widespread lift will continue to work to saturate the column with light precip developing later Friday night into Saturday. Looking at the thermal profiles from both the NAM and the GFS, it looks like the precip will start off as some light rain then change over to snow later Friday night or early Saturday morning. The best moisture will have already been "eatin' up" by the lead, southern shortwave but there will still be enough in the column to squeeze out .1 to .2" liquid equiv. At this time we think there will be some light accumulations - mainly on grassy areas. Surface temperatures will be at or above freezing so accumulations should not be much of a problem on the roads - although bridges and overpasses may have a slick spot or two especially early on Saturday. How much snow ?? Really hard to say as it depends on when the exact changeover occurs and sfc temps. As I mentiuoned previously, sfc temps are progged to be at or above freezing for much of this event so there will likely be some melting going on even as the snow is falling especially as we move into the daylight hours of Saturday. Actual snowfall could be upwards of 2 inches but what really accumulates will likely be less than this to the tune of an inch or less. Plenty of time to watch it so wee'll keep you updated.... I will say this, this weekend's system does NOT look like a major system for us.

Next week.... that could be a different story ! Chances for a significant winter event may be increasing across our area. The main reason why is the huge block across Greenland and the resultant -NAO pattern. This will likely force systems coming in from the west to take the southerly route. The confluent northwestly flow across portions of the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. will keep the cold high pressure at the sfc in place (i.e. the cold air source). As the western system moves our way, the increasing moisture will encounter the cold air in place and ...bingo !!!

Okay, gotta get to work... I'll keep you updated. C'mon Snow !!!!!!

Jay

A White Christmas ???

Good morning all... Having a couple of days off from work but still wanted to post about what is looking pretty interesting for the weekend and early next week.

It does not look like any MAJOR winter storms on the way for the next 7 to 10 days but the prospects for a little snow to possibly whiten the ground in time for the Christmas holiday are looking up.

As for the next couple of days, a little bubble of Arctic high pressure will continue to build in behind a cold fropa. Temperatures will no doubt be chilly the next few days (man-o-man those 60s sure felt great yesterday !)

Looking out, the upper flow really becomes quite amplified across the region as blocking sets up across areas to our northeast. This will force any shortwaves moving in from the western U.S. to maintain a southerly track. One of those shortwaves will be moving through the flow on Saturday. As a matter of fact, this system is forecast to take on a negative tilt later Saturday into Sunday as it passes to our south and southeast. This will cause the system to explode near the eastern seaboard - and it COULD become the first major winter storm for the bigger cities of the northeast.

For us, it looks like some light snow (which may actually start as rain) will develop on Saturday as the afore mentioned system undergoes deepening to our east/southeast. latest 00z ECMWF is spitting out .1 to .2" liquid. Certainly not a big storm but perhaps enough to whiten the ground.

As upper level low pressure develops to our north next Monday and sags south across the Ohio Valley next Tuesday (as forecast by the ECM), this will reinforce the cold air across the region and keep us in a zone of flurries and snow showers.

If this upper flow forecast does occur, it would be quite wintry around here next week with the zone of flurries and snow showers over us for 2 to 3 days - with the possibility for more light accumulations.

Should be fun to see how things pan out... C'mon snow !!

Talk to you later,

Jay

A Quiet Week Ahead... Christmas Week ???

Hello all, hope your weekend was a good one. A quiet week on the way. I won't spend a lot of time on it as the overall flow is generally zonal in nature. Quick movinh system producing snow in the upper midwest/Great Lakes area will drag a front through here. Temperatures will get chilly the next few days but nothing real cold for uss as PJ remains well to the north.

The pattern beyond this period will become increasingly amplified as the MRM (medium range models) are forecasting a block to form to our northeast. A large block (closed high) forms over Greenland, with an upper level closed low developing to its southwest and then the whole pattern eventually takes on a REX block configuration by next week. Check out ECMWF H5 pattern...

By T216 and T240, a very blocky pattern is forecast to develop. Shortwave energy coming of the Pacific in the southern stream will be forced south of the northeast REX block. The big question is the cold air. Will it be deep enough to support a major winter event across our area ?

That remains to be seen ! I think it really depends on the exact placement and strength of the developing Omega block over Alaska. If this block actually develops (with the intensity) where the model says it will, then the amount of cold air needed for a major winter event may be in serios jeopardy. The main reason why is the east side (eastern trough) of the block would set up over southwest Canada/Pac. Northwest. This would in turn cause rising heights and ridging (to some extent) downstream. Notice how the overall H5 flow is forecast to go from a northerly component to more of a zonal flow in just 24 hours ! If this were to actually happen then the deep cold air may be too far north of our region to give us a decent sized or big winter event. This northwest pattern looks similar to what happened just last week -the pattern that produced the blizzard across the Plains / Western Lakes. Am I saying that there's no chance for a winter event here ?? Absolutely not! As a matter of fact the blocking (-NAO) occurring in the northeast is a great sign. The big Q is what really happens with the forecast block/amplified flow to our northwest?? Time will certainly tell . Drop me a line with your thoughts. This should be fun to see how thing unfold. I'll be very honest with you... I would love to see some snow for Christmas - I think most of us would !

See ya gang.

Jay

Cold Weather Now... Warmer This Weekend...

A large area of cold high pressure continues to build towards the Ohio Valley today on the heels of that very impressive early December storm that brough blizzard conditions to areas to our north, severe weather and tornadoes to areas to our south, with rain, gusty winds, and dropping temperatures around here.

This high will dominate the weather pattern for the next 24 to 36 hours. As a result, very cold temperatures will continue across the region through Friday.

Heading into the weekend, the high moves east and the upper level pattern will deamplify allowing for milder, pacific air to spread into the Ohio Valley.

Notice how today's H5 chart shows the strong polar stream dipping into the Ohio Valley...

By Sunday, huge changes! Polar jet retreats north, flow becomes more zonal in nature with the subtropical jet dominating our weather by then...

If you look closely at the above H5 heights/vort chart valid 12z Sunday, you can see a couple of weak disturbances flowing through the sub tropical stream. One located over the Iowa/Missouri region and a stronger one moving into California. These disturbances will bring us chances for mainly light precip. The first chance comes Saturday night into Sunday morning with another chance during the Monday night / Tuesday timeframe.

What type of precip you ask ?? Rain ! No snow at all over the next 5 day or so. As the afore mentioned pattern change takes place, H85 temps will warm well above critical. Muchh of the guidance has 850 temps on the order of +6 to +10 C !! This will allow for surface temps to easily warm into the 40s with perhaps even some 50s on the horizon.

Looking ahead... really doesn't look all that cold - at all !! Actually there's a decent chance we may see some pretty mild/warm temperatures heading into Christmas week.

Here are the 216 and 240hr ECM charts at H500.

Nothing cold or snowy on these charts for us - at all !!!

Even the current MJO chart shows the recent activity weakening and moving towards the neutral circle - an indication that our current cold / amplified pattern is about ready to break down and the extended ECM charts above certainly support that idea.

Take care all,

Jay

10:30am Update...

Winds staying pretty strong through early / mid afternoon. Also a few breaks in the overcast showing up on satellite will keep the mixing going. Here's the latest peak win gust chart.

should see 20 to 35 mph winds with gusts to near 50 on occasion through early afternoon.

Jay

Lots of Wind and Cold, A Touch of Snow...

Well the winds are now arriving, and it'll stay very gusty throughout the day. These are some of the latest wind gusts around the area...

High Wind Warning remains in effect. Essentially that means winds could occasional gust to near 50 mph.

In addition, get ready ! A cold air blast will quickly sweep into the region today sending the temperatures into the 20s by evening. Check out the 8am sfc map. Look at the cold air to our west. It's coming our way.

Also, flurries upstream across Illinois / Missouri should make their way here but later this afternoon.

10 to 15 inches of snow from Omaha, east to Des Moines, then east northeast into Wisconsin. Also 40 to 50 mph now making for blizzard conditions. Gotta say - that look fun !! But then again I'm a snow lover.

Des Moines, IA (Wed. AM)

Jay

Rain, Winds, Cold, A Little Snow... Oh My !!

Hey gang.... hope your Tuesday is going well. No big changes to the forecast as the big storm explained at depth in the previous post is still on track. Rain develops here today, continues into tonight. As low pressure deepens significantly later tonight / early tomorrow, wind fields will really start tp crank across the region. H95 to H85 winds progged anywhere from 40 to 65 kts. Some of this momentum will likely get mixed down to the surface later tonight into Wednesday - and especially if a few breaks show up in the overcast Wednesday morning. NWS has placed our area under a high wind watch (the ugly gold-brown color) for late tonight into Wednesday.

Looks like a pretty good call here. If not upgraded to a high wind warning later today or this evening, at the least, wind advisories will likely be issued. Bottom line, it's gonna get windy and much colder throughout the day tomorrow. Upper 40s / low 50s early Wednesday morning... Upper 20s / lowers 30s later Wednesday afternoon with a few flurries posssible as well.

Huge snows and blizzard conditions still on track for areas to our northwest. check out these links to a couple of traffic cams in Iowa / Kansas...

http://www.511ia.org/cctvDisplay.asp?url=http://205.221.66.10/ivc3/19/&path=http://205.221.66.10/ivc3/19/&image=camera19.jpg&east=cameraE.jpg&west=cameraW.jpg&north=&south=&title=I-35/80%20at%20Morningstar&type=still

http://www.ksdot.org/staticcameras.asp#

we'll keep you posted,

Jay

Fast Moving Dusting... Huge Storm Tuesday Night & Wednesday

Fast moving H5 vort/shortwave provided just enough lift to bring us some light snow a drizzle this morning. Few slick spots on the bridges and overpasses but conditions improving now.

Next big storm is currently developing in the Rockies. This one means business !! H5 energy and will move across the Central Plains northeast to the Upper Midwest. As the energy takes on a negative tilt, the surface low will undergo rapid deepening and bomb out across the Great Lakes region Wednesday under strong divergent flow aloft.

If you want big snow.... you'll heve to travel 300 to 500 miles to our northwest ! A large zone of over a foot of snow will likely occur from northern Kansas to near the Omaha-K.C. corridor northeast across Iowa into N.W Illinois, southern Minn., southern Wisconsin, into Michigan. This area is going to get hammered !! Blizzard / near blizzard conditions will develop Tuesday night and continue Wednesday - with the worst conditions (i.e. travel could easily (and probably will) be shut down !) across southern Minn., Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan.

06Z Mon GFS snow chart

For us.... Mainly a rain producer !! Areas of rain will likely develop (heaviest southern regions) during the day Tuesday and continue Tuesday evening. Even some thunder will be possible given progged NAM LI's on the order of -2 by Tuesday midnight or so. Strong H7 dry intrusion will shut off the rain later Tuesday night. Cold front sweeps through allowing arctic air to spill into the Ohio Valley during the day on Wednesday. Thermal profiles suggest flurries will be possible later Wednesday afternoon as H85 temps drop to near -12c with 90% (or better) saturation. In addition, winds of 15 to 30 mph (Gusts to 35) will be likely later Tuesday night into Wednesday as the afore mentioned system really ramps up to our northwest.

Cold weather for Thursday... lower 30s for highs.

Looking ahead, pattern looks to stay active. PV across most of Canada (with 3 distinct centers) kind of "locked" in place due to the blocking pattern occurring near Alaska (Omega Block). Coldest of the air will stay to our north from near and especially north of the Polar jet - but it's not that far away !! In addition, Sub-tropical jet will remain very active as numerous shorts eject out of the closed system off the west coast of the U.S. These system will move rapidly east providing for occasional bouts of precip. And when phasing of the 2 streams can occur, strong storm systems will result.

It looks like one fast moving shortwave will bring us a chance for mainly light precip (possibly all snow) in the later Friday / early Saturday timeframe. Another system next week during Tuesday and Wednesday looks to be much stronger as phasing of the streams may again occur. If this happens and the stronger system results, it will likely be another rain producer for us with the big snows again staying to our northwest. As always, we'll watch it cloose and keep you updated.

Jay

Here Comes The Rain...

The much advertised storm is now pushing into the region... Rain will continue for much of the day and winds will be increasing as low pressure begins deepening to our south as heads in our direction. Rain could be locally heavy at times with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two possible - as there is a tone of WAA and lift occurring on the nose of 50kt LLJ pointing at us.

As this system continue to deepen and lift northeast, a dry slot at H7 will puch into the region late afternoon / early evening bringing an end to our steady and heavier rain conditions.

Once the low moves by, much colder will wrap down into the region later tonight into Thursday on the heels of some rather gusty winds. Low layers still look to be quite moist so lots of low clouds expected in the strong CAA setup. I DON'T see any snowflakes in our area until possibly tomorrow night (Thursday night). The column simply isn't cold enough to support any ice crystal generation until that time. However, Thursday night, the GFS thermal/moisture profile would suggest a narrow window for a few flurries around 06z Friday morning (i.e 1am Thursday night).

That's about it gang.... Decent rain today... diminishing to light showers/drizzle late afternoon or early evening. More patchy light rain (especially for the northern half of the viewing area) tonight as wrap around moisture returns. Colder with blustery conditions and mostly cloudy skies for Thursday.

Jay

Cold Wave Still On The Way... Big Snow??? Nope..

Quick Update...

Going forecast still looks to be on track. Latest model guidance still suggests large - late Autumn storm will spin up across the Ohio Valley Wednesday as phasing of northern and southern stream shorts occur. Track of the sfc low still looks to be very close to Louisville or just east. Not a good track if you are a snow lover. Bottom line is this - low levels will be too warm for any accumulating snow across our area. Rain - heavy at times and perhaps even a few rumbles of thunder, will develop Wednesday. By late Wednesday night/early Thursday, much colder air will spill in behind the storm. This is when the column will be cold enough to support snow but most (if not all) the deep moisture will be gone. So maybe few flurries / snow showers but that should be about it. As a matter of fact - the polar jet is progged to be still to our northwest on Thursday. This is suggesting we may even see some sunshine on Thursday with strong mixing occurring.

Jay

An Active Pattern To Say The Least, Colder And Some Snow

Large changes are happening in the upper atmospheric flow. As a huge ridge/closed high/block forms over Alaska, a large downstream trough will form over the U.S. Take a look at the H5 pattern / prog by later Thursday... That's big stuff !!

As this pattern forms, a large and intense storm system will take shape across the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday. This will occur as a southern piece of jet energy phases with a northern stream shortwave.

The sfc low is expected to track from the Lower Mississippi Valley - northeast across the Ohio Valley - anywhere from central Ky to Far eastern Ky. Decent track for snow - lovers (and I'm one of them) but it looks to me that the low-level temp profile is going to be too warm for a big snow event for us. Most if not all the models bring the H85 low right on top of us. Gang, that's not good if you want a big snow with this. Looking at the H5 patterns, and the time of year, and the fact that so far this season the track for these systems has been either over us or to our west, I think the best chances for a decent snow look to be from Missouri - northeast across Illinois, central and northern Indiana - and then northeast from there.

For us... it looks like rain develops Wednesday. As the sfc system passes through, strong CAA will take place changing the rain to some snow Wednesday night late. However, by the time the change-over takes place most of the deep moisture will already be gone or shifting rapidly to the northeast. So little or no accumulation expected with the main system during this time frame.

Beyond this and as the upper level pattern continues to evolve, very cold air will continue to overspread the Ohio Valley. Check out the H85 temps by 18z Thursday !!!

With nearly saturation levels expected in the low layers and temps progged to be this cold - no problem generating ice crystals. As a result, flurries and snow showers look to be a good bet during Thursday into Thursday evening.

So, bottomline... A cold blast on the way by Thursday. Large storm system to bring us a cold rain starting Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Rain expected to change to snow with little or no accumulation expected at this time. (best big snow accumulations look to be west and northwest). Much colder Thursday with occasional flurries and snow showers.

We'll keep you posted.

Jay

Jay

Rain & Cooler Temperatures....

The mild and dry conditions that have graced our region pretty much all of this November so far will be interrupted by a very slow moving storm system. This system is basically cutoff from the main jet stream and as a result, will not move much through late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Occasional light rain and cooler temperatures are in store Tuesday and Wednesday with a break in the rain chances expected for Thursday and Friday.

We'll keep you updated...

Jay

Mild November Weather To Continue...

After a very chilly Friday morning with widespread frossty conditions and temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s, a big warming trend is on the way for later this afternoon and this weekend.

High pressure at the surface will continue to move east of our area providing us with a return flow set-up and high preessure in the upper-atmosphere will continue to build northeast from Texas providing us with lots of sunshine by day and clear skies at night.

Temps aloft will continue to warm and mixing of the atmosphere will become deeper over the next 3 afternoons so the gradual warm-up will continue. We should see the lower 60s this afternoon... upper 60s to near 70s tomorrow, and lower 70s on Sunday.

The next system to affect our area will come Tuesday of next week but the rain chances with this thing really look to be dwindling and here's why....

1. The southwestern H5 energy heading in our direction will likely weaken substantially as it moves into the mean upper ridge that's currently building into our region.


2. There's a tropical system down over Honduras (TD Ida). This system is expected to reemerge into the NW caribbean sea the next 12 to 24 hours and then move slowly north. As this system moves north, the flow across the Gulf of Mexico will remain east to northeast. In other words - no moisture return for us as the Gulf will be effectively shut down.

So....... now it looks like NOT much of a rain chance for the Ohio Valley early next week.

A cold front will slip through here during this same time period due to an H5 short in the northern stream. Temps will cool off a little bit but not much and not for long.

Check out the extended ECM charts.....














West coast trough / east coast ridge.
Bottom line, this mild November pattern is here for the next 10 to 14 days at least !!

Have a great weekend all and enjoy the weather.
Jay