Wow !!! now that was a change in weather conditions... just looked outside a seeing folks walking around in shorts and t'shirts. Feels like Spring out there. Really happy with how the forecast worked out !! From the timing of the start and end of the rain to the huge warm-up to the wind advisory - pretty much all went right on schedule. The only thing that we mis-fired on was the amount of warming that took place --- 67 degrees at 11am !!!!!!! Talk about incredible mixing. No doubt, we will have a new record high today! A nice break from the cold - enjoy it because an arctic plunge is headed our way and will be here in 48 hours (Sunday) and last into Monday.
Cold frontal boundary with this current system will work through later today and temperatures will come back to reality and drop quickly from the levels they are now into the 40s then 30s.
As upper vort pulls away, it will away take the strong wind field with it and winds will quickly decrease later today.
Alright, the next big system is on the way... This one will close off into a very strong H5 low up over the Great Lakes / northern Ohio Valley (almost looks like a very progressive polar vortex to some extent). A few light shower will develop later Saturday into Saturday evening in the PVA zone and modest to weak WAA zone - just ahead of the strengthening poler boundary. The good snows with this system will stay well north with this system and basically over those areas that just got hammered or are still getting hammered by big snow from the current system.
For us, the big weather story will be the cold air moving in - just about all the guidance is now agreeing on H85 temps -20c or colder !!! Yikes. Folks it is going to get real cold around here Sunday into Monday. Temps in the upper single digits & lower teens at night and lower / mid 20s during the day both Sunday and Monday - not to mention wind chills possibly subzero. Should be some flurry activity as the H5 jet settles south of the region and some low level moisture remains in place - more than cold enough to generate ice crystals.
Let's talk Christmas..... NO BIG SNOW -sorry snow lovers !!! Yes there is a system on the way for late Tuesday night into Christmas Eve but the current pattern will hold strong. Way too much warm air with this system to talk snow. The snow will again occur well west and north of us as the vort energy passes to our north.
If anything, this west coast trough / eastern ridge pattern will get stronger from Christmas day through the weekend after. Looking at the meteorology of the situation, there are strong signs of more big time warming for later next week into the weekend after Christmas. It looks like the kids will get to try out their new bikes , balls, or blades and the dads their golfclubs afterall !!
Hold onto your hats today and have a great Friday
Jay
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