Hi all, took yesterday off... needed a little break from the "craziness" of early this week.
No doubt, a very active and progressive weather pattern will continue through Christmas. A couple of fast moving- potent storms on the way. The first will impact the area later tonight and tomorrow... This will bring rain to the region later tonight into tomorrow morning - much warmer air, and lots of wind !! It'll also bring a major winter storm to areas north of us - they have all the luck !! Another system moves in Saturday late day into Sunday - this one will likely bring us some snow showers and flurries in the wrap around colder air. And finally another - relatively weak system closer to Christmas Eve.
Okay the first one....
Fast moving short wave will induce cyclogenesis to our west with a potent system moving across central IL and central IN. Strong WAA will develop over the Ohio Valley later today and tonight as strong LLJ kicks in. Warm frontal boundary will lift north though the area tonight allowing for sfc temps to skyrocket into the mid 50s by daybreak Friday! Dry line with this system works through in the mid morning hours. With the cold front passing through later in the day on Friday..
Okay, so this will mean a good chance at showers later tonight and tomorrow morning with even some lightning and thunder possible considering some elevated instability noted over the region. Once the dryline pulls through tomorrow morning the rain will quickly end, with even some peeks of sun later in the day. Great mixing with this system being on the southwest flank of the upper vort - a west to southwest wind coupled. looks pretty windy to me. Actually would not be a bit surprised to see a wind advisory with this one !! Thsi storm brings a fast hitting but potent winter storm to areas just north of us.... ice across northern IL and northern IN, northern OH, and heavy snow - near blizzard conditions fo nortern IA, southern WI, lower MI (6 to 12 inches of snow likely in these areas - NICE)
We quiet down Friday night into Saturday but the next system will be evolving across the upper midwest as another strong short moves across the central plains towards the northern Ohio Valley. This will bring another sfc low pressure area to the region that will track very cose to the Ohio River. Temps warm to the mid 40s on Saturday... hold steady or slowly rise to near 50 Saturday night ... showers form with this system, then behind it for Sunday - much colder air along with blustery conditions and flurries and snow showers as the jet axis shifts south of our area. H85 temps by some of the guidance as cold as -20c !!!!! More than cold enough to squeeze out flurries and snow showers through Monday morning. BTW the regions that will see big snow from tonight's system will get the snow from this second system too ..... lucky devils.
Finally, the third system comes out for Christmas Eve - well really late Tuesday into Christmas Eve morning. This system looks to be a fast moving open wave with the most concentrated H5 vorticity passing to our north..... Not good if you want snow. To me right now this looks like some cold rain developing Tuesday late day and maybe....maybe..... maybe afew flurries on the back side. The trend is for the guidance to come in weaker with this system however - we'll watch it close. Christmas Eve afternoon looks dry and quiet - as does Christmas Day... Bottom line - I don't see much of a chance for a white Christmas this year...
have a great day all
Jay
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3 comments:
Dang it Jay, thats not what I wanted to hear!!! Ha.....Hope things are well, Purdue graduate in the field of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science here as well. I was hoping you were seeing something different then me but I guess not!...I know economic times are tuff, just curious on your thoughts of what I should do with my degree. The only problem is I graduated way back in the day(1997) and have yet to use it, long story there. Currently over at Ford Truck Plant in Louisville and not a day goes by Im not brushing and keeping up to date with the models, upper air and surface maps. Any chance of doing some voluteer work for you guys, your the best in the area hands down!
Jeremy from Crandall
Jay,
Don't know how you can say that when the storm is still several days away. You know as well as I do that the models will flip flop precipitation types and the strength of the system the next several days. Seems like your giving up, when in reality...the models at this point are nothing but a bunch of guesses. We both know the models won't have a solution until 1 or 2 days before the storm! I cannot believe your giving up because of a couple of model runs! What ever happened to gut instinct and past experience to predict the weather. It's not time to make any conclusions on the Christmas storm, especially with the storm being several days away! I respect you as a meteorologist Jay, and I think your one of the best. However, it's not time to make conclusions on this Christmas storm when its still several days away. That is NOT wishcasting, but experience in what models are like several days before the storm. They just cannot be trusted...
Patrick-Seymour, IN
Hi Patrick, hope all is well... Flip flops of models are typical, but this is not about flip flops this is about meteorology ! Patrick, I know you're a snow lover and so am I. I'm wishing for snow and from the flavor of your comment, as are you. But take away feelings and "wishing" and look at what's really going on with the long waves around the globe. West Coast trough - eastern ridge. Patrick those are the facts and they can't be denied. This is a central plains to upper midwest stormtrack. This pattern is locked in place and will be through Christmas. As far as "giving up"... I'm not giving up on anything as there is nothing to give up on ! I don't think there is going to be a big snow here because of the meteorology of the situation and that's it ! Anybody saying that there will be or might be is simply "wishcasting" and not looking at what is going on in the atmosphere. Oh and by the way... I am using my experience to forecast the weather and that's why I'm saying no big snow for Christmas when some of the models still are and it IS time to talk about the weather for Christmas because a) people want to know.. and b) there are going to be a ton of folks traveling. Patrick, remember - when you forecast, looks at what's going on now for real... look at how stable the pattern is that we're currently in and then looks at the model outputs - I think you'll have more success in forecasting and it will cut out the wishing / feeling aspect. Have a great holiday season
Jay
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