Hi all, hope all is going well.. Weather pattern remains quite active but as we discussed in detail late last week (west coast trough - east coast ridging), we will remain on the warm side of the storm track and as a result - no snow and certainly no white Christmas. Sorry folks.
Still watching a couple of storm systems for this week into the weekend. One short wave will progress from the Rockies through KS and then across northern IL. This will ensure that the sfc system will also pass well north of us. Warm air will continue to work north across the Ohio Valley. This WAA and isentropic lift will cause some light precip today. The leading edge of the moisture will be pushing in just as the arctic air is pushing out. Having said that, some light freezing rain / IP activity will be possible initially from near Louisville - but especially north into southern IN. Keep in mind that the ground in extremely cold so slick roads are certainly possible - again mainly north of Louisville this afternoon into the early evening. Later on this evening, warm air intrudes throughout the atmosphere changing any freezing precip over to all rain.
Temperatures warm all night into Wednesday morning with rain continuing. Middle and upper 50s return tomorrow (Wed). Once the trailing cold front passes through, rain will end and cooler temperatures will once again return along with dry weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas day.
Another system is on the way for Friday into Saturday. This system will also pass well west of us. Warmer air will once again flood into the Ohio Valley Friday. As the sfc warm frontal boundary pushed through, a few showers (even some thunder) will be possible, but then temperatures will likely soar well into the 60s by Friday afternoon. More rain and even some storms on Saturday as the dynamics and cold front approach - temps again very mild then once that cold front passes through, we will dry out and cool off for Sunday.
Have a very happy and safe Christmas and New Year all. This will likely be my last post until after the New Year as starting tomorrow, I will be on vacation. I'm going to spend some very welcomed time with my wife and kids and I promised them no work (unless absolutely necessary) until after our break.
Happy holidays all...
Jay
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
What a Change... Get Ready For Another One, An Arctic Chill Coming
Wow !!! now that was a change in weather conditions... just looked outside a seeing folks walking around in shorts and t'shirts. Feels like Spring out there. Really happy with how the forecast worked out !! From the timing of the start and end of the rain to the huge warm-up to the wind advisory - pretty much all went right on schedule. The only thing that we mis-fired on was the amount of warming that took place --- 67 degrees at 11am !!!!!!! Talk about incredible mixing. No doubt, we will have a new record high today! A nice break from the cold - enjoy it because an arctic plunge is headed our way and will be here in 48 hours (Sunday) and last into Monday.
Cold frontal boundary with this current system will work through later today and temperatures will come back to reality and drop quickly from the levels they are now into the 40s then 30s.
As upper vort pulls away, it will away take the strong wind field with it and winds will quickly decrease later today.
Alright, the next big system is on the way... This one will close off into a very strong H5 low up over the Great Lakes / northern Ohio Valley (almost looks like a very progressive polar vortex to some extent). A few light shower will develop later Saturday into Saturday evening in the PVA zone and modest to weak WAA zone - just ahead of the strengthening poler boundary. The good snows with this system will stay well north with this system and basically over those areas that just got hammered or are still getting hammered by big snow from the current system.
For us, the big weather story will be the cold air moving in - just about all the guidance is now agreeing on H85 temps -20c or colder !!! Yikes. Folks it is going to get real cold around here Sunday into Monday. Temps in the upper single digits & lower teens at night and lower / mid 20s during the day both Sunday and Monday - not to mention wind chills possibly subzero. Should be some flurry activity as the H5 jet settles south of the region and some low level moisture remains in place - more than cold enough to generate ice crystals.
Let's talk Christmas..... NO BIG SNOW -sorry snow lovers !!! Yes there is a system on the way for late Tuesday night into Christmas Eve but the current pattern will hold strong. Way too much warm air with this system to talk snow. The snow will again occur well west and north of us as the vort energy passes to our north.
If anything, this west coast trough / eastern ridge pattern will get stronger from Christmas day through the weekend after. Looking at the meteorology of the situation, there are strong signs of more big time warming for later next week into the weekend after Christmas. It looks like the kids will get to try out their new bikes , balls, or blades and the dads their golfclubs afterall !!
Hold onto your hats today and have a great Friday
Jay
Cold frontal boundary with this current system will work through later today and temperatures will come back to reality and drop quickly from the levels they are now into the 40s then 30s.
As upper vort pulls away, it will away take the strong wind field with it and winds will quickly decrease later today.
Alright, the next big system is on the way... This one will close off into a very strong H5 low up over the Great Lakes / northern Ohio Valley (almost looks like a very progressive polar vortex to some extent). A few light shower will develop later Saturday into Saturday evening in the PVA zone and modest to weak WAA zone - just ahead of the strengthening poler boundary. The good snows with this system will stay well north with this system and basically over those areas that just got hammered or are still getting hammered by big snow from the current system.
For us, the big weather story will be the cold air moving in - just about all the guidance is now agreeing on H85 temps -20c or colder !!! Yikes. Folks it is going to get real cold around here Sunday into Monday. Temps in the upper single digits & lower teens at night and lower / mid 20s during the day both Sunday and Monday - not to mention wind chills possibly subzero. Should be some flurry activity as the H5 jet settles south of the region and some low level moisture remains in place - more than cold enough to generate ice crystals.
Let's talk Christmas..... NO BIG SNOW -sorry snow lovers !!! Yes there is a system on the way for late Tuesday night into Christmas Eve but the current pattern will hold strong. Way too much warm air with this system to talk snow. The snow will again occur well west and north of us as the vort energy passes to our north.
If anything, this west coast trough / eastern ridge pattern will get stronger from Christmas day through the weekend after. Looking at the meteorology of the situation, there are strong signs of more big time warming for later next week into the weekend after Christmas. It looks like the kids will get to try out their new bikes , balls, or blades and the dads their golfclubs afterall !!
Hold onto your hats today and have a great Friday
Jay
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Active Pattern to Continue... Big Christmas Snow Here??? - Don't See It !!
Hi all, took yesterday off... needed a little break from the "craziness" of early this week.
No doubt, a very active and progressive weather pattern will continue through Christmas. A couple of fast moving- potent storms on the way. The first will impact the area later tonight and tomorrow... This will bring rain to the region later tonight into tomorrow morning - much warmer air, and lots of wind !! It'll also bring a major winter storm to areas north of us - they have all the luck !! Another system moves in Saturday late day into Sunday - this one will likely bring us some snow showers and flurries in the wrap around colder air. And finally another - relatively weak system closer to Christmas Eve.
Okay the first one....
Fast moving short wave will induce cyclogenesis to our west with a potent system moving across central IL and central IN. Strong WAA will develop over the Ohio Valley later today and tonight as strong LLJ kicks in. Warm frontal boundary will lift north though the area tonight allowing for sfc temps to skyrocket into the mid 50s by daybreak Friday! Dry line with this system works through in the mid morning hours. With the cold front passing through later in the day on Friday..
Okay, so this will mean a good chance at showers later tonight and tomorrow morning with even some lightning and thunder possible considering some elevated instability noted over the region. Once the dryline pulls through tomorrow morning the rain will quickly end, with even some peeks of sun later in the day. Great mixing with this system being on the southwest flank of the upper vort - a west to southwest wind coupled. looks pretty windy to me. Actually would not be a bit surprised to see a wind advisory with this one !! Thsi storm brings a fast hitting but potent winter storm to areas just north of us.... ice across northern IL and northern IN, northern OH, and heavy snow - near blizzard conditions fo nortern IA, southern WI, lower MI (6 to 12 inches of snow likely in these areas - NICE)
We quiet down Friday night into Saturday but the next system will be evolving across the upper midwest as another strong short moves across the central plains towards the northern Ohio Valley. This will bring another sfc low pressure area to the region that will track very cose to the Ohio River. Temps warm to the mid 40s on Saturday... hold steady or slowly rise to near 50 Saturday night ... showers form with this system, then behind it for Sunday - much colder air along with blustery conditions and flurries and snow showers as the jet axis shifts south of our area. H85 temps by some of the guidance as cold as -20c !!!!! More than cold enough to squeeze out flurries and snow showers through Monday morning. BTW the regions that will see big snow from tonight's system will get the snow from this second system too ..... lucky devils.
Finally, the third system comes out for Christmas Eve - well really late Tuesday into Christmas Eve morning. This system looks to be a fast moving open wave with the most concentrated H5 vorticity passing to our north..... Not good if you want snow. To me right now this looks like some cold rain developing Tuesday late day and maybe....maybe..... maybe afew flurries on the back side. The trend is for the guidance to come in weaker with this system however - we'll watch it close. Christmas Eve afternoon looks dry and quiet - as does Christmas Day... Bottom line - I don't see much of a chance for a white Christmas this year...
have a great day all
Jay
No doubt, a very active and progressive weather pattern will continue through Christmas. A couple of fast moving- potent storms on the way. The first will impact the area later tonight and tomorrow... This will bring rain to the region later tonight into tomorrow morning - much warmer air, and lots of wind !! It'll also bring a major winter storm to areas north of us - they have all the luck !! Another system moves in Saturday late day into Sunday - this one will likely bring us some snow showers and flurries in the wrap around colder air. And finally another - relatively weak system closer to Christmas Eve.
Okay the first one....
Fast moving short wave will induce cyclogenesis to our west with a potent system moving across central IL and central IN. Strong WAA will develop over the Ohio Valley later today and tonight as strong LLJ kicks in. Warm frontal boundary will lift north though the area tonight allowing for sfc temps to skyrocket into the mid 50s by daybreak Friday! Dry line with this system works through in the mid morning hours. With the cold front passing through later in the day on Friday..
Okay, so this will mean a good chance at showers later tonight and tomorrow morning with even some lightning and thunder possible considering some elevated instability noted over the region. Once the dryline pulls through tomorrow morning the rain will quickly end, with even some peeks of sun later in the day. Great mixing with this system being on the southwest flank of the upper vort - a west to southwest wind coupled. looks pretty windy to me. Actually would not be a bit surprised to see a wind advisory with this one !! Thsi storm brings a fast hitting but potent winter storm to areas just north of us.... ice across northern IL and northern IN, northern OH, and heavy snow - near blizzard conditions fo nortern IA, southern WI, lower MI (6 to 12 inches of snow likely in these areas - NICE)
We quiet down Friday night into Saturday but the next system will be evolving across the upper midwest as another strong short moves across the central plains towards the northern Ohio Valley. This will bring another sfc low pressure area to the region that will track very cose to the Ohio River. Temps warm to the mid 40s on Saturday... hold steady or slowly rise to near 50 Saturday night ... showers form with this system, then behind it for Sunday - much colder air along with blustery conditions and flurries and snow showers as the jet axis shifts south of our area. H85 temps by some of the guidance as cold as -20c !!!!! More than cold enough to squeeze out flurries and snow showers through Monday morning. BTW the regions that will see big snow from tonight's system will get the snow from this second system too ..... lucky devils.
Finally, the third system comes out for Christmas Eve - well really late Tuesday into Christmas Eve morning. This system looks to be a fast moving open wave with the most concentrated H5 vorticity passing to our north..... Not good if you want snow. To me right now this looks like some cold rain developing Tuesday late day and maybe....maybe..... maybe afew flurries on the back side. The trend is for the guidance to come in weaker with this system however - we'll watch it close. Christmas Eve afternoon looks dry and quiet - as does Christmas Day... Bottom line - I don't see much of a chance for a white Christmas this year...
have a great day all
Jay
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Decent Snow South of Louisville, More Bark than Bite Elsewhere
GM to all of you... yet another bout of light wintry precip is working through the region this morning. It will be a mixture of snow and sleet with gradual change over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain. The precip today is expected to be light but still be careful when traveling. Amount wise... the best snows with this system set up south of Louisville last night. In a very narrow corridor (about 30 miles wide for so) and basically from the Western KY and Bluegrass Pkwys - north into northern Bullitt county was where 2 to 4" (locally 5") fell. Farther north through Louisville into southern Indiana, precip has been much lighter... as you all know by now.
No question... a very tough one to forecast - I've been saying this over and over again - but folks, it really was.
Okay so the rest of today... generally light accumulations (less than 1 inch) of snow going... to sleet for north central KY and southern IN - eventually to light freezing rain and drizzle. As warm advection scheme begins retreating back north. Actually this precip shield will likely expand today and produce some pretty good snow and sleet - but farther north in the deeper arctic air (i.e up over northern MO, Iowa, northern IL, and Northern IN).
Looking ahead... lots of low clouds will continue to blanket the region with even a patch or two of drizzle / frzg drizzle possible through tonight and tomorrow morning as low level inversion stays in place. Little bubble of high pressure builds into Ohio Valley for Wednesday afternoon. Thursday... more changes... Low pressure will form to our northwest and track to near Chicago. Strong warm advection will develop Thursday afternoon and evening as sfc warm front begins to push north. A few showers will be possible at this time and temperatures will sky rocket from near 40/low 40s Thursday late day to mid/upper 50s by Friday morning.
Upcoming weekend looks active... decent weather on Saturday, but a new fast moving system moves in for Saturday night and Sunday with showers on the front end and much colder air / wind/ snow showers and flurries on the back end for Sunday.
We'll keep you updated, have a great Tuesday everybody !!
Jay
No question... a very tough one to forecast - I've been saying this over and over again - but folks, it really was.
Okay so the rest of today... generally light accumulations (less than 1 inch) of snow going... to sleet for north central KY and southern IN - eventually to light freezing rain and drizzle. As warm advection scheme begins retreating back north. Actually this precip shield will likely expand today and produce some pretty good snow and sleet - but farther north in the deeper arctic air (i.e up over northern MO, Iowa, northern IL, and Northern IN).
Looking ahead... lots of low clouds will continue to blanket the region with even a patch or two of drizzle / frzg drizzle possible through tonight and tomorrow morning as low level inversion stays in place. Little bubble of high pressure builds into Ohio Valley for Wednesday afternoon. Thursday... more changes... Low pressure will form to our northwest and track to near Chicago. Strong warm advection will develop Thursday afternoon and evening as sfc warm front begins to push north. A few showers will be possible at this time and temperatures will sky rocket from near 40/low 40s Thursday late day to mid/upper 50s by Friday morning.
Upcoming weekend looks active... decent weather on Saturday, but a new fast moving system moves in for Saturday night and Sunday with showers on the front end and much colder air / wind/ snow showers and flurries on the back end for Sunday.
We'll keep you updated, have a great Tuesday everybody !!
Jay
Pretty Good Snows South of Louisville...
Hi all, quick update...
This one has been an absolute nightmare to call .... losing hair right and left now... anyway it seems to be showing itself a bit better now - finally !!
Pretty good band of snow & sleet south of the Ohio River in KY. Been getting reports of an inch already on the ground. No doubt with how the band is setting up, 2 to 4 inches of snow is likely north of the Western KY and Bluegrass Pkways but mainly south of Louisville. Farther north, some precip (light snow) will work back in but the best lift appears to be south of the Ohio River overnight. Another round of precip will likely form Tuesday morning, but the best lift appears that it will be farther north (i.e. Lawrence, Jackson, Jennings, Jefferson (IN), Scott. This second batch will likely produce 1 to 3 inches of snow up there, with more of a light wintry mix elsewhere.
Watch for those icy spots and stay safe
Jay
This one has been an absolute nightmare to call .... losing hair right and left now... anyway it seems to be showing itself a bit better now - finally !!
Pretty good band of snow & sleet south of the Ohio River in KY. Been getting reports of an inch already on the ground. No doubt with how the band is setting up, 2 to 4 inches of snow is likely north of the Western KY and Bluegrass Pkways but mainly south of Louisville. Farther north, some precip (light snow) will work back in but the best lift appears to be south of the Ohio River overnight. Another round of precip will likely form Tuesday morning, but the best lift appears that it will be farther north (i.e. Lawrence, Jackson, Jennings, Jefferson (IN), Scott. This second batch will likely produce 1 to 3 inches of snow up there, with more of a light wintry mix elsewhere.
Watch for those icy spots and stay safe
Jay
Monday, December 15, 2008
Winter Storm Warning Continues...
The winter storm warning continues across most of the viewing area overnight into Tuesday. Although a large amount of snow and ice is NOT expected... roadways will become hazardous as the wintry mix continues... Whenever you have shallow arctic air and overrunning warm air/moisture, it's always a very tircky forecast as to where the transition zone sets up - this is no exception and it appeasr that transition is very close to Louisville again. What's new ???
Alright, expecting 2 to 4 inches of snow north of Louisville across southern Indiana. Up to 2 inches of snow and sleet in Louisville as more sleet is expected to mix in, and a 1/4 to 1/2 inch of sleet and freezing rain the farther south you go (i.e. around E'town, Bardstown, Leitchfield Greensburg etc...)
The precip is expected to diminish to a patchy light wintry mix or freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon. With the shallow arctic air in place, low clouds and occasional freezing drizzle will continue Tuesday night and also into Wednesday...
Be safe all, I'll keep you updated.
Jay
Alright, expecting 2 to 4 inches of snow north of Louisville across southern Indiana. Up to 2 inches of snow and sleet in Louisville as more sleet is expected to mix in, and a 1/4 to 1/2 inch of sleet and freezing rain the farther south you go (i.e. around E'town, Bardstown, Leitchfield Greensburg etc...)
The precip is expected to diminish to a patchy light wintry mix or freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon. With the shallow arctic air in place, low clouds and occasional freezing drizzle will continue Tuesday night and also into Wednesday...
Be safe all, I'll keep you updated.
Jay
Winter Storm Warning... The Problems Arrive Tonight
GM all, hope your weekend was a good one. Well, new work week and some very wild weather on the way. Arctic boundary passing through right now. Low level cold air will continue to pour into the region the next 24 hours. First band of precip with boundary - enhanced by RRQ of upper jet, is now pusing away. Precip will end this morning likely leaving us with overcast, colder, but also mainly dry conditions the rest of the day into early evening. Roads will likely dry out so no major roadway problems expected through later afternoon / early evening.
Anoother spped max traveling the upper southwest flow, will get the mid level overruning cranked up again later tonight - through the overnight and into tomorrow morning. Been on the phone with Matt Milosevich all morning discussing the situation. NAM seems to be handling the situation nicely. 12z run seems to have initialized very well from the thermal structure to it's moisture field. At this time, we like that solution and a quick and dirty look from the 12z GFS seems to be supporting it.
So what does this mean... a real potential mess for later tonight into tomorrow. It appears that the cold air will be deep enough to support a mostly snow regime (a little sleet may be mixed in) from near Louisville and points north. To get real detailed... I-64 and points north. South of this area... a mix of snow and more sleet to about the Jefferson county - Bullitt county line. Then south of this area... mainly sleet and freezing rain with up to 1/2 of icing possible. Yep... here we go again - different year... same ole' thing, it really could be one of those situations where there's several inches of snow , for example in Prospect, to a 1/2 inch of sleet and snow accumulation along the Jeff / Bullitt county line and then more of a glazing the farther south you go. In the mostly all snow band, our in-house forecast schemes are painting mainly 2 to 4 inches with some isol'd 5 inch amounts along the Ohio River northeast of Louisville.
Bottom line... watch out for slick and hazardous roadways later tonight into tomorrow.
More wet weather likely on Thursday as a cold rain will likely develop with perhaps some icing possible in the far northern counties - we'll keep you posted on that one.
have a great Monday all...
Jay
Anoother spped max traveling the upper southwest flow, will get the mid level overruning cranked up again later tonight - through the overnight and into tomorrow morning. Been on the phone with Matt Milosevich all morning discussing the situation. NAM seems to be handling the situation nicely. 12z run seems to have initialized very well from the thermal structure to it's moisture field. At this time, we like that solution and a quick and dirty look from the 12z GFS seems to be supporting it.
So what does this mean... a real potential mess for later tonight into tomorrow. It appears that the cold air will be deep enough to support a mostly snow regime (a little sleet may be mixed in) from near Louisville and points north. To get real detailed... I-64 and points north. South of this area... a mix of snow and more sleet to about the Jefferson county - Bullitt county line. Then south of this area... mainly sleet and freezing rain with up to 1/2 of icing possible. Yep... here we go again - different year... same ole' thing, it really could be one of those situations where there's several inches of snow , for example in Prospect, to a 1/2 inch of sleet and snow accumulation along the Jeff / Bullitt county line and then more of a glazing the farther south you go. In the mostly all snow band, our in-house forecast schemes are painting mainly 2 to 4 inches with some isol'd 5 inch amounts along the Ohio River northeast of Louisville.
Bottom line... watch out for slick and hazardous roadways later tonight into tomorrow.
More wet weather likely on Thursday as a cold rain will likely develop with perhaps some icing possible in the far northern counties - we'll keep you posted on that one.
have a great Monday all...
Jay
Sunday, December 14, 2008
First Decent Batch of Wintry Weather On The Way...
Sorry gang for the late post... this will be a brief one... had some family issues to deal with today... Winter storm watch continues for the region tomorrow afternoon and night. Looks good to me at this time.
Had a chance to briefly look at some of the new stuff this evening. Wow !!!! what a cold front. Frontal boundary to pass through here tomorrow morning. Light rain with the frontal passage... temperatureswill quickly fall below freezing during Monday afternoon. Precip will be quite light... a mix of light ZR or Frzg Drzl by late day. Icy travel is likely on untreated roads by late Monday and Monday night.
Another band of overrunning precip is likely to form Monday night into Tuesday morning. Will likely see a mix of ZR and sleet from near Louisville and points south, Latest NAM data suggesting cold air will be deep enough to support a narrow band of Accum snow and sleet and that band may develop up and down the Ohio River area - over Louisville. If this pan out, several inches of snow would be possible mainly in the 2 to 4 inch range. Here's the deal though... whether it's ice or snow, this will likely be the first significant winter weather event of the season. Be prepared for slick and hazardous travel developing Monday night into Tuesday along with much colder temperatures and biting wind chills... Kim will have the latest of the air tonight at 11:30 pm.
Sorry for the not so detailed update folks... but I've got other matters to attend to. Have a great night and Monday and watch out for slick roads by later Monday and Monday night...
Another update Monday morning...
Night all,
Jay
Had a chance to briefly look at some of the new stuff this evening. Wow !!!! what a cold front. Frontal boundary to pass through here tomorrow morning. Light rain with the frontal passage... temperatureswill quickly fall below freezing during Monday afternoon. Precip will be quite light... a mix of light ZR or Frzg Drzl by late day. Icy travel is likely on untreated roads by late Monday and Monday night.
Another band of overrunning precip is likely to form Monday night into Tuesday morning. Will likely see a mix of ZR and sleet from near Louisville and points south, Latest NAM data suggesting cold air will be deep enough to support a narrow band of Accum snow and sleet and that band may develop up and down the Ohio River area - over Louisville. If this pan out, several inches of snow would be possible mainly in the 2 to 4 inch range. Here's the deal though... whether it's ice or snow, this will likely be the first significant winter weather event of the season. Be prepared for slick and hazardous travel developing Monday night into Tuesday along with much colder temperatures and biting wind chills... Kim will have the latest of the air tonight at 11:30 pm.
Sorry for the not so detailed update folks... but I've got other matters to attend to. Have a great night and Monday and watch out for slick roads by later Monday and Monday night...
Another update Monday morning...
Night all,
Jay
Winter Storm Watch... Looks interesting...
Hi all, hope your weekend is going well ! Big winter storm / blizzard talked about in previous posts is underway... 30 to 60 mph winds, heavy snow, and subzero temps across Dakotas and Minnesota --- NICE !
For us, the traling arctic boundary will pass through Monday morning. Temperatures will drop rapidly behind this boundary into the 30s and 20s. Looks like two waves of precip with this system... the first with the frontal passage - mainly just a cold rain, and the second tomorrow night - another batch of overrunning precip but this one in the form of a wintry mix. Latest models are implying freezing rain and sleet for the southern half of the viewing area and sleet and mostly snow for the northern half of the viewing area. Louisville looks to be in the snow / sleet zone at this time with the freezing rain just south. Pouring over the new data now along with trying to spend some time with my family - not a good mix as you know. I will likely have a complete update with maps later on today or this evening.
Have a good day all
Jay
For us, the traling arctic boundary will pass through Monday morning. Temperatures will drop rapidly behind this boundary into the 30s and 20s. Looks like two waves of precip with this system... the first with the frontal passage - mainly just a cold rain, and the second tomorrow night - another batch of overrunning precip but this one in the form of a wintry mix. Latest models are implying freezing rain and sleet for the southern half of the viewing area and sleet and mostly snow for the northern half of the viewing area. Louisville looks to be in the snow / sleet zone at this time with the freezing rain just south. Pouring over the new data now along with trying to spend some time with my family - not a good mix as you know. I will likely have a complete update with maps later on today or this evening.
Have a good day all
Jay
Friday, December 12, 2008
A Warmer Weekend... Icy Weather Late Monday & Monday Night ??
The big eastern storm is gone but not before a cold rain changed over to a heavy wet snow last night in the far southeastern counties of the viewing area and points east... Snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches east of the I-75 corridor through eastern Kentucky - Nice !!
The "solid 1 inch of snow" that was supposed to fall in Louisville today (according to another media met here in town (NOT WLKY)- who said " I can't believe I'm the only one who sees this) referring to us getting a solid inch of snow today, never did materialize. Perhaps the reason nobody elae picked up on it was because it was never gonna happen in the first place !!
Again, I have no problem with anybody forecasting the weather. If you believe the weather is going to act a certain way and you have good, sound reasoning - go for it. That's your job afterall. If it does not work out, well... move on, try to learn from your mistakes so you can become a better forecaster. We're not going to get every forecast right - all the time , it just ain't gonna happen. My problem with this forecaster was when he said "I can't believe I'm the only one who sees this....." as if to imply the rest of the weather population are ignorant for not seeing what he did - when in fact it was his forecast that busted !! Oh well, last I will discuss this and time to move on.
Little surge of colder air moving into the region today. There is some H9 & H85 moisture pushing towards us with temps at the cloud level cold enough to generate some ice crystals so a few flurries certainly scattered around the viewing area today.
Hey, the weekend still looks milder... We have 46 going for a high tomorrow. Many of the MOS guidance schemes are actually warmer than us. But in reality, we may have a tough time making it out of the lower 40s tomorrow. We should have a pretty cold night tonight (low/mid 20s in town). Tomorrow morning, a fairly solid mid/high deck will increase across the area. After such a chilly night, no doubt low level inversions will set up. If those clouds move in quickly enough, that will effectively shut down our mixing potential. This is looking more and more like it is indeed going to happen. I'll look at this more in detail this afternoon, but don't be surprised to see us cutting back a bit on the high temp. forecast for tomorrow.
Mixing and continued WAA will eventually erode the low level inversions and Sunday looks to be the warmest day - although it will turn quite gusty as both the pressure gradient tightens and the LLJ starts cranking over the region. Also, clouds will be thickening during the day but no precip is expected. This warm up will be occurring as a large western US trough forms - effectively rising the heights downstream over us and turning our flow more of a southwesterly pattern.
Still expecting a strong short to eject out of the trough into the upper midwest creating a winter storm for the eastern sections of the northern plains and also the upper MS valley. The air behind the trailing cold front is arctic in nature. Bottom line, don't be fooled Monday morning when you walk outside to 50 degree temps. during the late morning and afternoon, the temps will be dropping through the floor with 20s and low 30s likely by late Monday. In addition, rain will be developing along and behind this sharp boundary and enhanced some by the RRQ of the upper jet. The rain is progged by all the models to continue into Monday evening. It looks to me, at this time anyway, that we could be looking at some decent icing occurring in the viewing area later Monday and Monday evening. Something to watch out for and we'll be sure to keep you updated.
Have a great weekend
Jay
The "solid 1 inch of snow" that was supposed to fall in Louisville today (according to another media met here in town (NOT WLKY)- who said " I can't believe I'm the only one who sees this) referring to us getting a solid inch of snow today, never did materialize. Perhaps the reason nobody elae picked up on it was because it was never gonna happen in the first place !!
Again, I have no problem with anybody forecasting the weather. If you believe the weather is going to act a certain way and you have good, sound reasoning - go for it. That's your job afterall. If it does not work out, well... move on, try to learn from your mistakes so you can become a better forecaster. We're not going to get every forecast right - all the time , it just ain't gonna happen. My problem with this forecaster was when he said "I can't believe I'm the only one who sees this....." as if to imply the rest of the weather population are ignorant for not seeing what he did - when in fact it was his forecast that busted !! Oh well, last I will discuss this and time to move on.
Little surge of colder air moving into the region today. There is some H9 & H85 moisture pushing towards us with temps at the cloud level cold enough to generate some ice crystals so a few flurries certainly scattered around the viewing area today.
Hey, the weekend still looks milder... We have 46 going for a high tomorrow. Many of the MOS guidance schemes are actually warmer than us. But in reality, we may have a tough time making it out of the lower 40s tomorrow. We should have a pretty cold night tonight (low/mid 20s in town). Tomorrow morning, a fairly solid mid/high deck will increase across the area. After such a chilly night, no doubt low level inversions will set up. If those clouds move in quickly enough, that will effectively shut down our mixing potential. This is looking more and more like it is indeed going to happen. I'll look at this more in detail this afternoon, but don't be surprised to see us cutting back a bit on the high temp. forecast for tomorrow.
Mixing and continued WAA will eventually erode the low level inversions and Sunday looks to be the warmest day - although it will turn quite gusty as both the pressure gradient tightens and the LLJ starts cranking over the region. Also, clouds will be thickening during the day but no precip is expected. This warm up will be occurring as a large western US trough forms - effectively rising the heights downstream over us and turning our flow more of a southwesterly pattern.
Still expecting a strong short to eject out of the trough into the upper midwest creating a winter storm for the eastern sections of the northern plains and also the upper MS valley. The air behind the trailing cold front is arctic in nature. Bottom line, don't be fooled Monday morning when you walk outside to 50 degree temps. during the late morning and afternoon, the temps will be dropping through the floor with 20s and low 30s likely by late Monday. In addition, rain will be developing along and behind this sharp boundary and enhanced some by the RRQ of the upper jet. The rain is progged by all the models to continue into Monday evening. It looks to me, at this time anyway, that we could be looking at some decent icing occurring in the viewing area later Monday and Monday evening. Something to watch out for and we'll be sure to keep you updated.
Have a great weekend
Jay
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Big Storm In The East... Brief Weekend Warm Up... Icy Weather Next Week ??
Hello all,
Hope the day is going well...
Forecast working out pretty well. All the precip with the big storm has indeed stayed across the far southeastern counties of the viewing area and points south & east - Basically along and south of the Western & Bluegrass KY Parkways.
This storm is mostly a cold rain producer, although there will likely be a transistion to some wet snow before the precip ends in the far southeast. Accumulations will be light with a light coating on the grassy areas possible. Better snow amounts (2 to 4") in the higher elevations of east KY.
Skies clear tonight allowing for a pretty chilly night as everybody drops well into the 20s.
A reinforcing shot of cold air will work into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours as a fast moving H5 short/speedmax dives though the region. Moisture with this system is very limited.
Yesterday it looked like we might of had enough moisture (deep moisture) to saturate a pretty good portion of the atmosphere - at least for a short time, with temperatures cold enough to generate ice crystals. As a result, I was thinking there may be some flurries of perhaps even a brief period of light snow.... Now all the data is coming in drier.. and drier... and drier.... Bottom line, it'll be a cold Friday with a mix of clouds and sunshine but not expecting much snow at all !
There may be a flurry or two - especially in the western / southwestern counties but even that may be stretching things. Which brings me to a forecast recently put out by another media outlet... it's been brought to my attention that one of the local mets in town (NOT WLKY) earlier this morning was calling for "solid inch of snow across the area for Friday". Okay, no big deal - that was his forecast which is fine and I believe there's nothing wrong with saying that if you believe it's going to happen. My problem was the qualifier he put with his forecast... Something along the lines of "I can't believe I'm the only one who sees this" - referring to his forecast for a solid inch of snow. Again I didn't see it but was told by numerous people who did.
There's probably a reason he's the "only one who sees this" ... I guess we'll see tomorrow.
Alright, back to the weather ... Big western trough to develop... that will in turn give us a broad southwesterly flow and allow for a few of warmer days (Sat 40s, 50s Sun & Mon). Astrong short will eject out of the western trough and head for the northern plains / upper MS valley. This system will likely produce a big snow / blizzard conditions across portion of the Dakotas and possibly western MN. The trailing cold front will shift through here Monday afternoon/evening.
The air behind this front is arctic in nature so the colder air moving in will be quite shallow. As a broad southwest flow continues aloft and weak shorts move through that flow... with the shallow cold air at the surface, this will set the stage for some overrunning with icing a distinct possibilty somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Way too early to really pin it down but we'll keep you up to date.
Have a great day
Later:
Jay
Hope the day is going well...
Forecast working out pretty well. All the precip with the big storm has indeed stayed across the far southeastern counties of the viewing area and points south & east - Basically along and south of the Western & Bluegrass KY Parkways.
This storm is mostly a cold rain producer, although there will likely be a transistion to some wet snow before the precip ends in the far southeast. Accumulations will be light with a light coating on the grassy areas possible. Better snow amounts (2 to 4") in the higher elevations of east KY.
Skies clear tonight allowing for a pretty chilly night as everybody drops well into the 20s.
A reinforcing shot of cold air will work into the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours as a fast moving H5 short/speedmax dives though the region. Moisture with this system is very limited.
Yesterday it looked like we might of had enough moisture (deep moisture) to saturate a pretty good portion of the atmosphere - at least for a short time, with temperatures cold enough to generate ice crystals. As a result, I was thinking there may be some flurries of perhaps even a brief period of light snow.... Now all the data is coming in drier.. and drier... and drier.... Bottom line, it'll be a cold Friday with a mix of clouds and sunshine but not expecting much snow at all !
There may be a flurry or two - especially in the western / southwestern counties but even that may be stretching things. Which brings me to a forecast recently put out by another media outlet... it's been brought to my attention that one of the local mets in town (NOT WLKY) earlier this morning was calling for "solid inch of snow across the area for Friday". Okay, no big deal - that was his forecast which is fine and I believe there's nothing wrong with saying that if you believe it's going to happen. My problem was the qualifier he put with his forecast... Something along the lines of "I can't believe I'm the only one who sees this" - referring to his forecast for a solid inch of snow. Again I didn't see it but was told by numerous people who did.
There's probably a reason he's the "only one who sees this" ... I guess we'll see tomorrow.
Alright, back to the weather ... Big western trough to develop... that will in turn give us a broad southwesterly flow and allow for a few of warmer days (Sat 40s, 50s Sun & Mon). Astrong short will eject out of the western trough and head for the northern plains / upper MS valley. This system will likely produce a big snow / blizzard conditions across portion of the Dakotas and possibly western MN. The trailing cold front will shift through here Monday afternoon/evening.
The air behind this front is arctic in nature so the colder air moving in will be quite shallow. As a broad southwest flow continues aloft and weak shorts move through that flow... with the shallow cold air at the surface, this will set the stage for some overrunning with icing a distinct possibilty somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Way too early to really pin it down but we'll keep you up to date.
Have a great day
Later:
Jay
Freezing Rain Advisory Out East....???
The southern storm system we talked about in the previous post is still developing and will begin moving northeast overnight into Thursday. Still looks like most if not all the precip from this system will fall across southeast KY with the best chances south of the Bluegrass and Western KY parkways.
Drizzle in the Louisville area will be diminshing and temperatures are expected to stay at or above freezing so little or no problems expected on metro roadways.
The Nat'l Wx Service has issued a freezing rain advisory for areas about 50 to 60 miles east / southeast of Louisville. In the viewing area the counties included: Franklin, Anderson, and Washington counties of KY.
It looks to me though that icing problems in these areas will be minimal - perhaps even non-existant. All the short range models keep these areas anywhere from 33 to 36 degrees overnight. There could be an isolated slick spot on a bridge or overpass but that should be about it. If roadways stay damp, there's a better chance for slick spots north and northeast of Louisville - but a decent north breeze and falling dewpoints will likely help dry the pavement as well in these areas.
Bottom line... no major icing problems expected anywhere but you know the drill... if your out and about drive with caution and take your time.
Full update coming Thursday morning..
Have a great night all,
Jay
Drizzle in the Louisville area will be diminshing and temperatures are expected to stay at or above freezing so little or no problems expected on metro roadways.
The Nat'l Wx Service has issued a freezing rain advisory for areas about 50 to 60 miles east / southeast of Louisville. In the viewing area the counties included: Franklin, Anderson, and Washington counties of KY.
It looks to me though that icing problems in these areas will be minimal - perhaps even non-existant. All the short range models keep these areas anywhere from 33 to 36 degrees overnight. There could be an isolated slick spot on a bridge or overpass but that should be about it. If roadways stay damp, there's a better chance for slick spots north and northeast of Louisville - but a decent north breeze and falling dewpoints will likely help dry the pavement as well in these areas.
Bottom line... no major icing problems expected anywhere but you know the drill... if your out and about drive with caution and take your time.
Full update coming Thursday morning..
Have a great night all,
Jay
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Southern Storm... Close but no cigar !! Quick hitting cold blast then warmer
What a great rainfall over the past 24 to 36 hours !! Just about everybody getting 1 to 2 inches of "drought-denting" rain.
Well no question... today - one of those nasty ones with low clouds, drizzle, and a stiff, cutting north wind. We'll stay in the 30s the rest of the day - above freezing though so no icing problems. As a matter of fact, we'll likely stay at or above freezing even tonight as the low clouds continue to blanket the region. Good news considering with the low levels still saturated, drizzle will continue on occasion into the night.
Another big H5 short / vort swinging around the base of the trough down around the Gulf coast. This energy will induce cyclogenesis on the boundary to our south. Normally, I'd be licking my chops on this set up but.... couple of problems.
1) There really is a lack of cold air over us for this system to work with. The deep, colder air ia lagging farther to out north and waiting for a northern stream H5 short to move through the region. Once it does, we'll get a nice - fast hitting dump of cold air in here - mainly for Friday and Friday night. By this time the southern system is already well to our east and outta here.
2) and most importantly, this northern stream energy I discussed above is going to keep the southern system just that... too far to our south to give us anything but some mid / high clouds.
As the northern stream energy pushes southeast towards the Ohio Valley, it will affectively "shunt" the southern storm system to our south and east.
Well no question... today - one of those nasty ones with low clouds, drizzle, and a stiff, cutting north wind. We'll stay in the 30s the rest of the day - above freezing though so no icing problems. As a matter of fact, we'll likely stay at or above freezing even tonight as the low clouds continue to blanket the region. Good news considering with the low levels still saturated, drizzle will continue on occasion into the night.
Another big H5 short / vort swinging around the base of the trough down around the Gulf coast. This energy will induce cyclogenesis on the boundary to our south. Normally, I'd be licking my chops on this set up but.... couple of problems.
1) There really is a lack of cold air over us for this system to work with. The deep, colder air ia lagging farther to out north and waiting for a northern stream H5 short to move through the region. Once it does, we'll get a nice - fast hitting dump of cold air in here - mainly for Friday and Friday night. By this time the southern system is already well to our east and outta here.
2) and most importantly, this northern stream energy I discussed above is going to keep the southern system just that... too far to our south to give us anything but some mid / high clouds.
As the northern stream energy pushes southeast towards the Ohio Valley, it will affectively "shunt" the southern storm system to our south and east.
No doubt, portions of southern and eastern KY will get some precip from this system - perhaps even as close as the far (far) southeastern counties of our viewing area. But at this time - with that lack of a good cold air source, even most of this precip will fall in the form of a cold rain - with just a little snow possible in the higher elevations or in those areas that could get a decent burst of verticals for a period of dynamic cooling. But that should be just about it.
Okay then, quiet and chilly weather returns for Friday, although if the moisture field on the GFS verifies (and it just may considering where the H5 jet axis is located) wouldn't be a bit surprised to see some flurries or a few snow showers as saturation is progged to occur where temps will be more that cold enough to generate ice crystals.
A warmer weather pattern looks to be developing for a few days into the weekend and early next week as BIG western trough develops. This will in effect give us a broad southwest flow as upper ridging takes place in the east.
Next decent precip chance will take place next Monday (late day) into Tuesday morning. A rather strong piece of energy will eject out of the western trough and push into the northern plains states. This will develop into a BIG snow (possible blizzard for the Dakotas and perhaps northerstern MN. For us, the trailing cold front will move through the area sometime in the Monday afternoon to early Tuesday time frame with our next chance for rain.
Stay warm all;;
Later,
Jay
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Wind Advisory ????? The Rain Is Here...
The much advertised rain maker is now moving into the area... the rain will become steady and even heavy from time to time. It still lokks like 1 to 2 inches (locally 3") of rain seems like a good bet. This is NOT a classic flood situation (potential) with regards to heavy rains on a saturated ground (let's not forget that we still have a drought going on !!). Instead, MSD is concerned about some ponding occurring because of leaves clogging some of the storm sewers - so just be careful when out and about today.
Well, at one other media outlet in this market (NOT WLKY) is comparing today's wind advisory issued by the Nat'l Weather Service to that of September's event .... you know - the remnants of Ike. That comparison is absolutely so so soo bad and just plain irresponsible !!! This is simply a tight isobaric gradient with a decent low level jet overhead and even those winds will have a very tough time mixing to the surface. Folks it's raining out there and a widespread rain at that. This is not a dry mix but a moist mix !! Not good for strong winds at the surface. It looks to me that 15 to 25mph with gusts occasionally to 30 will work. Our best chances for the stronger winds have pretty much passed by us for the day. I do think the winds will become rather gusty again later tonight as the cold front moves through with the colder air and momentum shifting in but that should be about it.
Snow and icing continue well north with winter storm warnings across the Lakes region and severe weather to our south (moderate risk in the deep south today). Damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes possible in those regions. But for us... just widespread soaking rain with perhaps some thunder possible later today / this evening .
Have a great day and try to stay dry.
Later,
Jay
Lots of Snow Well North... A Good Soaking Here !!
A very dynamic and energetic storm system will continue to crank up across the middle sections od the U.S. overnight and into Tuesday. This system will produce severe storms to our south and southwest to heavy snow to our north to just a good ole' fashion soaking around here.
I addition to a soaking rainfall, strong and gusty south winds will blow across much of the region later tonight and into much of Tuesday. NWS has issued a wind advisory for the region for Tuesday. That looks okay to me as very strong H925, H9, and H85 winds will be on the order of 50 to 70 kts - especially Tuesday morning. There will be some mixing and coupling to allow some stronger wind gusts to reach the surface perhaps as high as 35 to 40 mph from time to time but this will NOT be another Ike !
Rain will develop across the region Tuesday morning and likely become widespread and moderate by midday. General amounts will be on the order of 1 to 2 inches. Some thunder will be possible with a bit of elevated CAPE present although the greatest threat for widespread thunderstorm activity (some severe) will be well south of our region.
Rain will continue Tuesday night but gradually diminish as the sfc cold front passes through - with all the rain expected to end Wednesday morning. Hold on... we're going for a wild temperature ride the next 24 to 36 hours or so. Tuesday's strong south winds will also pump in the warmer weather and push temperatures well into the 50s. The 50s will hold strong through Tuesday evening but once the front passes though (late evening ~around midnight), much colder air will quickly race into the region as winds veer to a northwesterly direction as send those temperatures back to the mid / upper 30s by daybreak Wednesday.
Quiet and cool weather returns for the end of the work week but by the weekend... it looks like a decent pattern change could be setting up. The mean trough is expected to set up in the west - which then has to mean ridging in the east. Bottom line... warmer weather expected to return for the weekend.
We'll keep you posted.
Later,
Jay
I addition to a soaking rainfall, strong and gusty south winds will blow across much of the region later tonight and into much of Tuesday. NWS has issued a wind advisory for the region for Tuesday. That looks okay to me as very strong H925, H9, and H85 winds will be on the order of 50 to 70 kts - especially Tuesday morning. There will be some mixing and coupling to allow some stronger wind gusts to reach the surface perhaps as high as 35 to 40 mph from time to time but this will NOT be another Ike !
Rain will develop across the region Tuesday morning and likely become widespread and moderate by midday. General amounts will be on the order of 1 to 2 inches. Some thunder will be possible with a bit of elevated CAPE present although the greatest threat for widespread thunderstorm activity (some severe) will be well south of our region.
Rain will continue Tuesday night but gradually diminish as the sfc cold front passes through - with all the rain expected to end Wednesday morning. Hold on... we're going for a wild temperature ride the next 24 to 36 hours or so. Tuesday's strong south winds will also pump in the warmer weather and push temperatures well into the 50s. The 50s will hold strong through Tuesday evening but once the front passes though (late evening ~around midnight), much colder air will quickly race into the region as winds veer to a northwesterly direction as send those temperatures back to the mid / upper 30s by daybreak Wednesday.
Quiet and cool weather returns for the end of the work week but by the weekend... it looks like a decent pattern change could be setting up. The mean trough is expected to set up in the west - which then has to mean ridging in the east. Bottom line... warmer weather expected to return for the weekend.
We'll keep you posted.
Later,
Jay
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