It's November... the weather pattern is finally, once again getting more active so we're going to fire this blog back up and talk about the weather at hand.
Overall the pattern is transitioning into a colder than normal one as a high amplitude trough develops over the eastern half of the nation - especially by the weekend.
Several H5 vorts will push east /northeast across the region as the long wave trough is developing the next couple of days. The first wave of energy and moisture is currently moving into the Ohio Valley. This batch of moisture is battling tons of dry air over the region - and with the best dynamics and frontal forcing remaining well west / northwest, today's rainfall will not be heavy. Temperatures, however, will remain chilly making for a rather raw afternoon as evap cooling and wet bulbing slowly take place. That, combined with a light easterly B-layer flow will
ensure temperatures today stay in the upper 30s to low 40s - ugggg !!!
This first wave of energy should lift northeast of the region late today / tonight providing us with lowered rain chances, although both NAM and GFS still indicated decent isentropic lift and very low cond. pressure deficits, so certainly a patch or two of very light rain cannot be ruled out.
Tomorrow (Wed), another wave of energy / H5 vorticity will be pushing towards the region. This will once again enhance the WAA and isentropic lift across the region. As a result, another wave of rain will overspread the area later on Wednesday and last into Thursday morning. This second batch of rainfall will be much more substantial as forcing and lift become maximized during the Wednesday overnight hours due in part to a 50 to 70 kt LLjet that will be cranking right towards our region. This strong LLjet and associated LLwarm advection will cause some destablization giving rise to the possibility of some elevated thunder.
Overall the pattern is transitioning into a colder than normal one as a high amplitude trough develops over the eastern half of the nation - especially by the weekend.
Several H5 vorts will push east /northeast across the region as the long wave trough is developing the next couple of days. The first wave of energy and moisture is currently moving into the Ohio Valley. This batch of moisture is battling tons of dry air over the region - and with the best dynamics and frontal forcing remaining well west / northwest, today's rainfall will not be heavy. Temperatures, however, will remain chilly making for a rather raw afternoon as evap cooling and wet bulbing slowly take place. That, combined with a light easterly B-layer flow will
ensure temperatures today stay in the upper 30s to low 40s - ugggg !!!
This first wave of energy should lift northeast of the region late today / tonight providing us with lowered rain chances, although both NAM and GFS still indicated decent isentropic lift and very low cond. pressure deficits, so certainly a patch or two of very light rain cannot be ruled out.
Tomorrow (Wed), another wave of energy / H5 vorticity will be pushing towards the region. This will once again enhance the WAA and isentropic lift across the region. As a result, another wave of rain will overspread the area later on Wednesday and last into Thursday morning. This second batch of rainfall will be much more substantial as forcing and lift become maximized during the Wednesday overnight hours due in part to a 50 to 70 kt LLjet that will be cranking right towards our region. This strong LLjet and associated LLwarm advection will cause some destablization giving rise to the possibility of some elevated thunder.
This wave of precip lifts northeast Thursday morning. Surface winds will veer to more of a southwesterly flow as sfc warm front pushes north of the region. Warm sector mixing should allow for some afternoon peeks of sunshine on Thursday and also warmer temperatures. H85 and H9 temps suggest sfc temperatures should easily climb into the 60s.
It looks like Friday will be quite warm again and well into the 60s (maybe even a few low 70s !!). Enjoy it, because as strong H5 vort / shortwave carve out the long wave trough, a strong cold front will race through the area Friday late afternoon / Friday night sending more cold air and lots of low level CAA stratoCu type clouds into region for the weekend. Earlier runs of both the ECMWF and even the GFS were showing H85 temps in the -8 to -10C range with 90 to 100% saturation ! In other words, if this verfies - there will likely be some ice crystals in the cloud layer allowing for the chances for some snow flurry activity. This would be mainly for later Saturday night into Sunday morning. ---- Oh well, It's November after all !!!!!!
Later,
Jay
Jay
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