Stormy For Indepedence Day

Well, the forecast really worked out well for this 4th of July holiday... unfortunately !!! The weak frontal boundary providing for weak lift in an uncapped atmosphere meant quite a few scattered showers and storms across the region. A weak area of low pressure has been working slowly east along the boundary by late this afternoon into the early evening. This is the reason why coverage increased some during the late afternoon...
As this low passes east this evening, the frontal boundary will get a push south taking the rain chances with it. It Looks like it will be dry for the fireworks in Louisville and points north, but still a threat at some widely scattered downpours south of Louisville - close to the boundary.

Saturday and Sunday will bring improvements... There is a ton of low level moisture in place and that should translate to some low level cloudiness tomorrow morning. But with the strong July sunshine, those clouds should become broken by afternoon. I think much of the day will be dry as H7 moisture levels will really be drying out.... but........ there's just one thing that bothers me - well a couple...... First, an upper level vort will be over the area pretty much all day. Second, as we get these breaks tomorrow afternoon, surface heating will take place and create modest instabilty across the area. Third, dew points may be higher (at least locally) than what the models are suggesting because of the recent rains the past couple of days. So.... although there's not a well established boundary to focus convergence and the deep moisture content of the atm. is dropping, I still think a few isolated storms may try to pop in the heat of the afternoon - especially east of Louisville where H7 moisture is progged to be just a bit higher than in other regions of the viewing area.

Sunday... looks just fine, partly cloudy and warm as the upper vort mentioned above shifts east, allowing shortwave ridging to build in.

Have a great rest of your Holiday weekend

Later:
Jay