Forecast looks to be on target... H85 temps have continued to respond nicely towards the upper teens to near 20C. In house mixing schemes should allow for surface temperatures to reach the low 90s area wide this afternoon and again Thursday into Friday.
MCS traveling on warm frontal boundary well north of our region this morning, as induced a nice looking MCV (meso. convective vort.). The MCS should weaken some late morning but regenerate this afternoon and tonight as warm front interacts with MCV. Closer to us, a few storms may reach into the far northern areas of the viewing area tonight as outflow from this mornings storms interact with increasing nocturnal LLJ.
I think Louisville and points southward will stay dry but also quite warm and humid.
The pattern the next 2 days is a typical summer pattern. Broad southwest flow, lots of humidity and hot temperatures. The main convergent zones will be well north and west of us the rest of the work week, so storms chances will be isolated to scattered at best with just airmass type convection possible in the region. Convective temps as per GFS and NAM progged soundings from Wed 00z runs are running in the 87 to 90C range. Those temperatures should easily be reached the next couple of afternoons.
Also, any storms that do form could be strong / severe, producing a brief damaging wind gust (pulse type severe) and very rainfall as precip waters will be high and storm motion quite slow.
Out best chance for rain and storms still looks to be in the Saturday / Saturday night time frame as a decent cold front approaching from the northwest, interacts with a hot humid air mass. Also, upper dynamics and linear convergence would suggest that a decent squall line may develop with wind damage possible - especially along the stronger segments of the line.
We'll keep you updated...
Later:
Jay
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