Another weekend is here and the weather pattern we experienced the past couple of days will persist through the weekend into early next week. The overall pattern will keep a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies and trough across the Lakes - which will extend south into the Ohio Valley.
What this means for us... temperatures that will average out to be at/or below normal and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances ride the jet through the Ohio Valley.
We will have a chance for a few scattered storms on Saturday but it looks to me that the greatest chances for storms will arrive either late day Sunday or Sunday night. A decent H5 jet streak will dig southeast across Mississippi valley towards the Ohio Valley during this time frame.
This upper feature will have a surface reflection with it which will provide the focus for the thunderstorm development. NAM is progging decent CAPE, and 0 to 6k shear values are expected to increase to between 40 and 50 kts.
This should be sufficient to support at least a broken line of showers and storms - with some of the storms becoming strong / severe. Primary threats would include hail and high winds.
Not much change on Monday... H5 trough still on top of us and yet another speed max / vort lobe is expected to dig southeast towards the lower Ohio Valley.
NAM is once again suggesting decent instability / pretty big lapse rates (although it may be somewhat overdone as the NAM typically overforecasts low level moisture - thereby overblowing the instability. It's one of the model's bias'). As H5 wave approaches, synoptic lift will increase with aid from the LFQ of the upper jet. This should be enough to kick off yet another batch of scattered showers and storms.
Bottom line... it won't be a total washout the next 2 to 3 days, but it will be unsettled from time to time. So if you have outdoor plans this weekend, keep an eye to the sky and also keep the umbrellas handy.
Have a great weekend all
Later:
Jay
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