Monday afternoon

This last day of June is certainly featuring some beautiful weather with pleasant temperatures and low humidities. Overall, the humidity will stay low through Wednesday, but by Wednesday night and Thursday, moisture will quickly increase across the region as the muggy air returns.
Later on Thursday, a frontal boundary will sag in from the north and slow if not stall out very close to the Ohio river. Scattered showers and storms will occur in close proximity to this boundary. As a result, rain chances will increase Thursday afternoon and continue through Saturday.
The bad news... it does appear that there will be some storms scattered around area on the 4th of July holiday... The good news... it likely will not be a total washout as the best chances for these storms will occur during the heat of the afternoon and early evening hours...

Later:

Jay

Thursday night update

Scattered showers and storms dotted the area on this Thursday afternoon and evening. And this was a typical summer event... High heat and humidity and once the convective temps were reached... storms quickly popped. Shear values were quite weak so widespread severe weather did not occur but with the fat CAPEs on the soundings, scattered strong updrafts formed producing pulse-type severe weather. In other words, the stronger storms produced a brief damaging wind gust and even some small hail as the storm cores were descending and the cells collapsing.
Well, this pattern is locked in so it looks like we'll see another hot and humid day for Friday with more scattered storms developing in the heat of the afternoon / evening hours. Once again, with a low shear / high CAPE enviroment, a few of the storms that form will likely pulse out.










On Saturday, there will be a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms - widespread across the viewing area. A strong H5 short will be dropping southeast towards the Great Lakes and actually close off. A couple of convergent boundaries will move southeast across the Ohio Valley as a result of this strengthening system. At this time it looks like we could see several rounds of showers and storms from the above mentioned system.

It looks to me that one round may move through the region Saturday morning. This first batch of storms will be from the the remnant convective cluster that should develop Friday night across Missouri and Illinois. There should be some weakening of this MCS as it approaches us but a 35 to 40 kt southwesterly LLJ should be enough to sustain the storms and allow them to reach us Saturday morning.









Another batch of storms will be likely later Saturday / Saturday evening. These storms will develop on a cold front moving southeast and be aided by a vort lobe swinging southeast around the closed H5 Great Lakes low.












0 to 6k shear values suggest that a few of these storms could be strong to severe with wind being the main threat.








Much of Sunday looks to be just fine but by late day or evening, another round of scattered showers and storms will be possible as yet another convergent boundary and H5 vort lobe rotate southeast around the H5 Great Lakes low.












I'm going to take a quick day off on Friday to be with the kids so Bob Symon will be in working for me. Stay tuned to NewsChannel 32 for any watches or warning that may be issued... Bob, Matt, and Kim will be here keeping you up to date... Oh yeah, don't forget,,, you too can now track storms right down to your street level - anywhere around the nation - by clicking on our new "Interactive Radar" module on WLKY.com.

Have a nice weekend

Later:
Jay

Wednesday Update

Forecast looks to be on target... H85 temps have continued to respond nicely towards the upper teens to near 20C. In house mixing schemes should allow for surface temperatures to reach the low 90s area wide this afternoon and again Thursday into Friday.

MCS traveling on warm frontal boundary well north of our region this morning, as induced a nice looking MCV (meso. convective vort.). The MCS should weaken some late morning but regenerate this afternoon and tonight as warm front interacts with MCV. Closer to us, a few storms may reach into the far northern areas of the viewing area tonight as outflow from this mornings storms interact with increasing nocturnal LLJ.

I think Louisville and points southward will stay dry but also quite warm and humid.

The pattern the next 2 days is a typical summer pattern. Broad southwest flow, lots of humidity and hot temperatures. The main convergent zones will be well north and west of us the rest of the work week, so storms chances will be isolated to scattered at best with just airmass type convection possible in the region. Convective temps as per GFS and NAM progged soundings from Wed 00z runs are running in the 87 to 90C range. Those temperatures should easily be reached the next couple of afternoons.

Also, any storms that do form could be strong / severe, producing a brief damaging wind gust (pulse type severe) and very rainfall as precip waters will be high and storm motion quite slow.

Out best chance for rain and storms still looks to be in the Saturday / Saturday night time frame as a decent cold front approaching from the northwest, interacts with a hot humid air mass. Also, upper dynamics and linear convergence would suggest that a decent squall line may develop with wind damage possible - especially along the stronger segments of the line.
We'll keep you updated...

Later:
Jay

Monday Update

Well, it's the first full week of summer and it's certainly going to feel like it...
Overall this week's weather will feature increasing temperatures and humidity with just isolateed thunderstorm chance... mainly on Friday. Then a much btter chnace for thunderstorms on Saturday.

Lets get into this then... overall, the pattern will be dominated by a flat ridge - really across much of the lower 48 for the work week. The main WAA zone will develop well north of us as the week rolls on with the main rain and thunderstorm zone setting up across the northern plains states into the Great Lakes.

For us, a broad southwesterly flow will develop across the Ohio Valley this week gradually warming temperatures and increasing humidity values. In addition both H7 & H5 heights will continue to slowly rise decreasing lapse rates and thereby giving us mainly dry conditions for a good chunk of this work week.
H85 temps are progged by most modeels to climb to the upper teens / lower 20s. That would translate to surface temperatures back into the lower 90s probably by Wednesday and continuing through Friday..

By Saturday, a fairly strong H5 strong will close off across the upper midwest and drift towards the Greta Lakes. This will send a cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with good chances for showers and storms along and ahead of the boundary.

The front should clear by Sunday with cooler and less humid conditions expected for the second half of the weekend.

Have a great day all

Later:
Jay

Friday Late Evening Update

Another weekend is here and the weather pattern we experienced the past couple of days will persist through the weekend into early next week. The overall pattern will keep a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies and trough across the Lakes - which will extend south into the Ohio Valley.

What this means for us... temperatures that will average out to be at/or below normal and periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances ride the jet through the Ohio Valley.

We will have a chance for a few scattered storms on Saturday but it looks to me that the greatest chances for storms will arrive either late day Sunday or Sunday night. A decent H5 jet streak will dig southeast across Mississippi valley towards the Ohio Valley during this time frame.

This upper feature will have a surface reflection with it which will provide the focus for the thunderstorm development. NAM is progging decent CAPE, and 0 to 6k shear values are expected to increase to between 40 and 50 kts.

This should be sufficient to support at least a broken line of showers and storms - with some of the storms becoming strong / severe. Primary threats would include hail and high winds.

Not much change on Monday... H5 trough still on top of us and yet another speed max / vort lobe is expected to dig southeast towards the lower Ohio Valley.

NAM is once again suggesting decent instability / pretty big lapse rates (although it may be somewhat overdone as the NAM typically overforecasts low level moisture - thereby overblowing the instability. It's one of the model's bias'). As H5 wave approaches, synoptic lift will increase with aid from the LFQ of the upper jet. This should be enough to kick off yet another batch of scattered showers and storms.

Bottom line... it won't be a total washout the next 2 to 3 days, but it will be unsettled from time to time. So if you have outdoor plans this weekend, keep an eye to the sky and also keep the umbrellas handy.

Have a great weekend all

Later:
Jay

Welcome to WLKY's new Weather Web site

Hi Folks, and welcome to the brand new weather section of our web page... This was designed after years of research with you in mind...
This new weather web site is totally customizable. You determine what your favorite elements are and decide where you want to place them. For example, if your favorite elements are; Live Radar, Forecast, and Severe..... You simply click the title of the window and drag it to the top of the page. Do this for your three favorite elements and they will now be located in the 3 big windows. The great thing about this is that when you log off and then return to the site later on, your 3 favorite elements will still be in the same locations.
To actually view the content of an element (or module), simply click inside the picture (click the pic) of the module and the information will pop up.
To get back to the weather home page, click the navigation MENU button in the top right hand portion of your screen.
Folks, I realize this thing looks totally different, but give it some time, play around with it, move those windows (or modules) around and have some fun. I think after some time, you'll realize that this is some great stuff and probably one of the best weather web sites out there today...
Let me know what you think, If you encounter any problems with the site, drop me a line and we'll get it fixed for you.
Thanks
Jay