Weather forecast seems to be holding up quite nicely and on target with the latest data coming in...
NAM still giving us an isolated chance for Oaks afternoon - but the latest info is indeed less bullish with the coverage near Louisville and more in line with that of the GFS qpf field.
Still - if you're heading to the track, take that poncho just in case..
Main batch of showers and storms will arrive late Friday night into Early Saturday morning - This batch of storms will be severe west of us, but by the time it gets here, it will likely be in a weakened state as it outruns its best support. Even the 0-6k shear values really taper over us from what they will be west of us.
Showers and storms will be diminishing Saturday morning with partial clearing taking place by late morning/midday. Temperatures warm back into the 70s, and then as another strong H5 vort lobe and the actual sfc cold front with this system move across the viewing area, another round of showers and storms will likely develop Saturday early to mid afternoon. I actually think this will be our best opportunity of seeing any strong / severe storms. Don't see a lot of twisting - helicity vallues are quite small but the 0-6k shear values are 60kts plus and the front will be interacting with a moderately unstable atmosphere...
NAM still giving us an isolated chance for Oaks afternoon - but the latest info is indeed less bullish with the coverage near Louisville and more in line with that of the GFS qpf field.
Still - if you're heading to the track, take that poncho just in case..
Main batch of showers and storms will arrive late Friday night into Early Saturday morning - This batch of storms will be severe west of us, but by the time it gets here, it will likely be in a weakened state as it outruns its best support. Even the 0-6k shear values really taper over us from what they will be west of us.
Showers and storms will be diminishing Saturday morning with partial clearing taking place by late morning/midday. Temperatures warm back into the 70s, and then as another strong H5 vort lobe and the actual sfc cold front with this system move across the viewing area, another round of showers and storms will likely develop Saturday early to mid afternoon. I actually think this will be our best opportunity of seeing any strong / severe storms. Don't see a lot of twisting - helicity vallues are quite small but the 0-6k shear values are 60kts plus and the front will be interacting with a moderately unstable atmosphere...
This would suggest that any storms that do form will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail... SPC hs slight risk for Saturday south of us, but I think there's a good chance that will be expanded to include us as well.
We'll keep you updated .
Later:
Jay
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