Thursday Night Update....

Friday looks to be the hottest day of the year so far as gusty southwest winds, lots of sunshine, and the thermal ridge right over the area means the temperatures will reach for that 90 degree mark by late afternoon. BTW, did you know the last time we reached 90 degrees or more in Louisville... 234 Days ago !!!!! nearly 8 months !!!. On Oct. 8th, 2007 the high reached 93. It has not been in the 90s since.

Big storms with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes have been occurring across the plains states tonight. The system responsible for the severe blow up is shifting east, northeast but is also weakening. Check out SPC's day 2 for tomorrow / tomorrow evening... ???

Looks way overblown to me at this point and would not be a bit surprised to see them cut back their areas of moderate - and maybe even cut it out all together.

I think Friday will be a dry day with lots of sunshine. Capping seems to build into the area as the afternoon wears on. GFS progged sounding showing a well mixed low level (850mb and below). and fairly warm mid-level temps... (~ H7). This trend should hold through Friday evening with the best area of storms holding north across central Indiana through midnight. Later Friday night into Saturday morning, the thunderstorm area will continue to sag south into the viewing area but should be in a weakened state and becoming more scattered basically for several reasons....

1) convergence along frontal boundary is weakening quite a bit as night wears on...
2) best dynamics / large scale lifting stay to our north...
3) weakening instability as Blayer cools .

Bottom line... not expecting a big time severe weather outbreak for the area...
Best rains chances should then shift south through the day Saturday as the weakening frontal zone continues to push slowly south ionto the Tennessee valley...

Enjoy the Friday heat all...

Later:
Jay