Wow... this is a difficult one...
Sorry, for the lack of posts the last 24 hours... I have three little kids and they all have the flu (sick as dogs) and at home with me until my wife can get off work - then she watches them while I go to work and vice versa - and over and over and over -- well you get the jist.
Can't talk long tonight because , well the kids of course.
Well, this storm has indeed trended west like we thought it would, and it's still going in that direction even on tonight's 00z runs (namely the GFS). The NAM had great run to run consistancy from it's 18z yest. output to tonight's 00z output. I know a lot of people are wanting to know how much snow is going to fall and the bottom line is that it's still really "up in the air" so to speak. I did mention amounts on the Wed. 11pm show - reluctantly, but I knew people wanted some numbers on this thing. Basically I went 1 to 3 inches for Louisville and points south and east. And this will be primarily for Friday overnight into Saturday as we get into the wrap around and colder air. Prior to that, I think enough warm air will be present to see mainly a cold rain or a mix of rain and some sleet from near Louisville and points south and east during the day Friday. Areas north and west will have colder air in place and likely see a mix of snow and sleet. Snow and sleet accumulations will be heaviest north and west of Louisville... question is how much and where will the bands set up ??!!, Keep in mind that the storm track is still uncertain and can (and most likely will) change - but I put a 6 to 12 inch band across the far north and western counties of the viewing area - mainly north of a line that extends from Jasper, IN to Crothersville, IN. 12 inches may be a bit over zealous but NAM qpf (and even GFS qpf when you consider higher snow/water ratios Friday night) can support it.
South of that line, 3 to 6 inches possible in southern Indiana with the 1 to 3 inches for Louisville and points south and east.
Probably the one thing you want to take away from this post tonight, and any other post/forecast/etc... out there in the weather world, is that this thing is still not set in stone and the forecast (including snow areas and amounts) is likely going to still be changing over the next 24 to 30 hours. Just know that Friday looks sloppy with much colder air and some snow flakes likely flying Friday night into Saturday.
really sorry about the lack of maps tonight - but I really have to get out of here and go check on the kiddos.
Drop me line if you have a few seconds and tell me your thoughts...
More on the coming storm tomorrow. Have a great Thursday all.
Later:
Jay
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2 comments:
I don't understand how the forecasts between the new stations can vary so much. Someone else (not saying who) is saying 4-7 inches! So, basically anywhere from 1-7 inches if I listen to both of you. That is a big variance! Sometimes I think no one knows until it happens! Hope the kiddos get better - I have 3 too and know you have your hands full!!
Hey thanks for the get well wishes for the kids... fevers, stomach aches.. you know the drill. Hopefully they will be better to play in the snow this weekend !
You're right about the wide variances in snowfall predictions - and that's precisely why I really hate to predict amounts more than 24 hours out but... so many people want to know so.... well,
Last night's info actually shifted much (much) of the snow away from Louisville, but I knew that this may be a model flip flop so I put Louisville in the 1 to 3" band (with the 3" line really on top of Louisville), 3 to 6" just north and 6 to 12" in the far north & northwest. Guess what... data is finally starting to agree and it lokks like it could be a big one for Louisville - and the 6 to 12" may be right over us. I will leave you with this... If a storm is still 1000 miles southwest of us and the exact track is off by just 5%, that would be a 50 miles deviation by the time it gets here !! And that's 50 miles in either direction - that's as big as our entire viewing area !! Still that would mean the data/forecast was 95% accurate - that's an A by any standards - but with winter weather - the viewers don't see it that way. have a great day
Jay
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